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PaperclipPerfector  4mo ago (text post)   1353 thread views

Transnational Thursday for January 4, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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What is the general consensus about the war in Ukraine? I had a sense things were going very badly until I read Anders' post here:

https://woodfromeden.substack.com/p/world-war-2-could-learn-something

The argument is that the situation was always awful, but if you compare what happened in Ukraine to the Nazi invasions of Czechoslovakia and Poland, things went far better because of the semi-illegibility of everybody's strategy against Russia:

"For Ukraine it is of course a catastrophe to be invaded by Russia and an even worse catastrophe to capitulate after a long and ruinous defense. Just as it was an unmitigated disaster for Poland to be invaded and occupied by Germany in 1939.

But for the world the only thing that matters is that the aggressor loses more from military action than they gain. This is certainly true for the Ukraine War. The war might have been a disaster for Ukraine, but it is also a disaster for Russia. Even if the Russians eke out a win in the end they will be weaker at the war's end than at its start. Not only does this limit Russia's abilities to invade other countries, it also serves as a signal to other potential aggressors to think twice before they act.

This is undoubtedly a win for the international community."

Even if the Russians eke out a win in the end they will be weaker at the war's end than at its start.

There are a lot of bald statements in this article that he never really goes on to support; this one is also kind of contradicted by his discussion of Poland... in which Germany loses quite a number of troops (making them weaker, duh) but comes out with valuable territory and a more experienced army/MIC.

I'm not seeing the difference here, long-term -- other than that (unlike Hitler) Putin shows no actual sign of having plans to dominate Europe -- so that's a win for the international community I guess, but not one for which the West can take much credit.

Do you have an account at substack? I'd be interested to see how the author of that article would respond to what you're saying here.

I do, but I prefer to separate it from this one -- feel free to put the point to him, but my prediction is that any response one might receive will be a disappointment in terms of intellectual engagement.

The whole article boils down to cope, and (non-Ukrainian) people who care enough about Ukraine to be engaging in cope are highly unlikely to have thought matters through in any coherent way.

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