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PaperclipPerfector  3mo ago (text post)   1626 thread views

Transnational Thursday for January 18, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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How would Trump stop the Russo-Ukrainian war in 24 hours? The obvious answer is that he wouldn't, but what if he actually tried? Are there any relatively plausible scenarios someone with Trump's temperament and reputation could try?

I think he might be able to do it simply by being elected.

The Ukrainian state is totally dependent upon US aid for funding everything: civil servants wages, pensions... All Ukrainian tax money goes to the war effort and they still need a great deal of foreign assistance to stay in the fight. Unless the EU steps up, Trump's plan to cut funding and arms will take the war from 'slow and steady Ukrainian defeat' to 'complete disaster + state disintegration'. Ukraine doesn't have the money to pay for a major war, why would they? Ukraine is a poor country. Even the combined resources of NATO are strained, look how the price of 155 mm shells has soared past 8,000 euros: https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/10/25/155-mm-shells-price-is-growing-8-6-million-for-1000-units/

The Ukrainian army is already in a lot of trouble regarding age and motivation. Their 'drag him away into the boot of our car' recruitment tactics indicate a certain level of desperation. The shock of a Trump victory might push them over the edge, though I admit I've underestimated Ukrainian stubbornness before.

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