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Notes -
The remaining primaries and convention at this point serve as little more than a coronation for the inevitable Trump nomination. It was discussed last week the unlikely circumstances in which Trump is prevented from running. The questions now are:
The likelihood Trump wins? Betting markets put the odds between 40-60%, which is not that useful but is what I would expect. The election will be very close and come down to the usual swing states like in 2020 and 2016. Biden's approval ratings are precariously low for an incumbent, especially given that the Electoral College works to Trump's advantage.
What will a second Trump term be like? My guess is much like his first term. A lot of hollow populist gestures to his base but not much happens. I still don't understand these people who are otherwise centrist or middle-left like Matt Yglesias and Noah Smith, who predict or expect a foreign policy crisis if trump wins , but always fail to articulate what this entails. I guess they have to keep toeing the 'orange man bad' line even though he was not that bad, and the economy and other metrics did well under his presidency (until Covid, which was out of his control anyway). Key alliances were strained much, as commonly feared in 2016-2017. The leadership of allies like Germany and France begrudgingly accepted Trump, and not much else happened.
Trump made the mistake of building a personality cult instead of a party. Orban or Erdogan built a party base with vast infrastructure supporting them. They could take power because their people are running local governments, staffing embassies and serving in the police. Trump couldn't even get members of his own party to support his vision in the senate. Trumpism can't achieve change in itself without replacing tens of thousands of managers. Franco wouldn't have been able to rule Spain if there wasn't loyalty from the officer corps and church which in turn could be used as a talent pool.
Had Trump wanted to MAGA, he would have spent the last 9 years building lots of local chapters of local supporters and future apparatchiks.
With that said I do believe Trump is a revolutionary candidate for the simple reason that he will ensure that the US government will be unable to function due to being bogged down with intra-elite infighting. This provides a window of opportunity for Texas to implement their own immigration policy.
This is what passes for analysis, I guess. Question: How much of the GOP was amenable to MAGA in 2016 vs now?
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