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Notes -
I'm probably going to be corrected by some theology major (I don't care) but let me give my best explanation of Calvinism:
Before you're born, it's already predetermined whether you're going to heaven or hell.
"So why, pastor, should I be good and righteous"
"My son, when you sin, it reveals that you're wicked and going to hell. Best, therefore, to abstain from sin."
As a persuasive technique, this probably works just as good as anything. It's often difficult to tease out causality in noisy data. I point this out in the context of Scott's latest post. Look at the graphs here and tell me what you notice:
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-polyamory
I notice that choosing to be monogamous or polygamous barely matters at all across many aspects of wellbeing. But there is one key difference: fertility. Polygamous people have many fewer children.
Does polygamy cause infertility or does infertility cause polygamy? Does it matter? It's extremely dysgenic and bound to go the way of the Shakers.
Neither. Polygamy is generally hyper-fertile, but polygamy as practiced in the Bay Area by socially awkward screen addicts seems not to be.
Probably more about the selection effect and less about the polygamy.
Polygamy (as opposed to polyamory) is obviously universally hyperfertile for the male, since multiple pregnancies are possible simultaneously and the fact of the polygamy means he’s usually wealthy enough to provide for many children. That it’s hyperfertile for the women depends typically on the fact that only the most trad and/or impoverished women in the modern world will agree to polygamous marriage, and both traits are strongly predictive of fertility rate.
Among polygamous ultra-rich Saudis post-2000 or so, my impression is that the women often have a much more modest number of kids, which I think suggests that tfr (which is of course calculated per woman) is not necessarily elevated by classical polygamy in and of itself.
That is a good point. The social status of having more children levels off pretty fast with living standards, I seem to recall. I'm guessing for hyperfertility to survive the middle class income trap, it needs both above average income and ideological commitment, probably religious. Mormons, Amish, Quiverfulls, etc.
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