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Culture War Roundup for the week of February 19, 2024

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I'm probably going to be corrected by some theology major (I don't care) but let me give my best explanation of Calvinism:

Before you're born, it's already predetermined whether you're going to heaven or hell.

"So why, pastor, should I be good and righteous"

"My son, when you sin, it reveals that you're wicked and going to hell. Best, therefore, to abstain from sin."

As a persuasive technique, this probably works just as good as anything. It's often difficult to tease out causality in noisy data. I point this out in the context of Scott's latest post. Look at the graphs here and tell me what you notice:

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-polyamory

I notice that choosing to be monogamous or polygamous barely matters at all across many aspects of wellbeing. But there is one key difference: fertility. Polygamous people have many fewer children.

Does polygamy cause infertility or does infertility cause polygamy? Does it matter? It's extremely dysgenic and bound to go the way of the Shakers.

I would guess that a possibly important outlier for polygamous people is the "roving seducer" type of guy who fathers large numbers of children because he moves on after impregnating each woman. It's just that this kind of person isn't usually considered polygamous in the modern rationalist community sense of "polyamory".

Playing typology with these things beyond self-identification makes it mush in seconds, when we talk about Monogamy vs. Polyamory we are asking people which relationship style they ideologically affirm, not which one they practice. If we're doing practice, it's a mess. We'd have to equally distinguish between varieties of monogamist. If we really wanted to drill down I would propose a spectrum of practice running something like:

  1. "First kiss at the Altar" monogamists, who have never had significant romantic entanglements with anyone prior to marriage. The most ideologically committed monogamists.

  2. Virgins at marriage monogamists. What it says on the tin. May have had romantic, but not sexual entanglements prior to marriage with other partners.

  3. Widows/Widowers who remarried, along with extreme cases of divorce "victims." Last exit in traditional religion.

  4. Serial monogamists. Have had multiple romantic/sexual partners that did not result in marriage, prior to marriage or after a failed marriage, but had some form of "commitment" and exclusivity with each, never had more than one partner within the same time period.

  5. Serial monogamists with exceptions. Trended toward monogamy as a goal, but with occasional periods of hook-ups or hiccups in between. Probably also the right place to put people from 1-4 who cheat. The last of the ideological monogamists.

  6. Hookers up. People who have had multiple partners they are not committed to. They may not have actually had multiple partners within the same time period, but the relationships did not formally preclude that possibility as a condition to the relationship. Drift towards a 5.5 where they have monogamous partners, drift towards 6.5 where they are committed to the bit.

  7. Limited Polyamorists. People who have multiple partners within a ruleset with a primary partner that inherently limits the number and nature of those relationships. The first "real" poly category. Restrictions on Gender, location, care, etc. are common. Typically a requirement of being added to the "circle" is that one is equally ideologically committed to polyamory on this model, so that ie Cheaters are frowned upon.

  8. Equal Polyamorists. People who have multiple partners who are all equally able to draw on time, attention, resources. No primary/secondary distinction within the group. Extremely rare in the wild.

  9. Fully Open Relationships. A relationship structure within which everyone is free to pursue sex with whoever they please, at any time they please. No restrictions are placed on anyone. Typically the strongest believers in the value of "free love" etc.

1-4 are definitely Monogamists, 7-9 are definitely Polyamorists. 5-6 are a little mushy, one can label them either way. If you profess Monogamy but fuck around are you really monogamous? If you fuck around but don't get into the all the emotional and ideological stuff, are you really Polyamorous?

Then you get into the problem of lifetimes. Lots of people I know started out aspiring to 1 or 2, dropped into 4-6 for their twenties or even play at a 7 or 8, and have since rounded down to 4 in their middle age. Where do they fall? Some people get married as a 1 or a 2, then cheat or get divorced and land at a 4 or a 5.

But I hope what's obvious is that trying to poll that precisely is going to be useless, but at the same time trying to conflate categories is going to be useless. A 4 and a 1 are both "monogamous, but I would bet on them having very different TFRs. Ditto 9 and 7 with polyamory.

Then you get into the problem of lifetimes.

Until I got here, this is where I was going to object. Among educated, high-income groups that aren't in the Bay Area or rationalsphere sorts of tastes, I would say that (4) and (5) are modal life arrangements, but with the capper being a completely monogamous and normal marriage sometime in their late 20s or 30s. Thinking about people I'm close to, this isn't just modal, it's the almost exclusive pattern. Mess around a bit as a teenager, go to college and date a few people with varying levels of commitment and varying levels of intermittent hookups, then start dating seriously after college, then after a couple relationships settle down. It's entirely possible that I'm in even more of a bubble than I realize, but it seems like not doing that is basically looked down upon among the upper middle-class.

Exactly normal, but also distinctly different from having a partner count of 1.