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Transnational Thursday for March 21, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Gigantic terrorist attack at a concert in Moscow in progress. At least 140 dead probably significantly higher. The concert hall is on fire and currently collapsing. Perpetrators unknown. Multiple shooters with AKs.

Edited to add: Looks like ISIS had claimed responsibility, Putin will be making a statement soon

Second Edit Reuters and Skynews are reporting a second attack at an emergency medical center at least 28 dead there. (Third edit: this seems to be an erroneous report based on a western news outlets mistranslation of a Russian news broadcast)

Fourth edit Putin and the FSB have made statements in the past hours claiming that the concert hall attackers were attempting to flee to Ukraine and had Ukrainian assistance in entering Russia to carry out the attack

Fifth Edit FSB alleges attackers were detained 85 miles from the Ukrainian border on a near a highway heading south. Attackers indicted in Russian court. They appear to have been tortured.

Sixth Edit FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov claims in official statement that the Ukraine, the United States and the United Kingdom were behind the attack

The telegrams are now showing footage that purports to be questioning one of the guys they caught. The core claim seems to be that he was recruited on Telegram after following some preacher, was offered about $5k with half transferred as an advance, and the weapons were provided by the recruiter.

Considering the timing and the guy's demeanor, I think the "legitimate ISIS" story should be losing a lot of probability mass, unless you postulate this is not really one of the shooters - leaving the Ukrainian intelligence and Russian intelligence strategy-of-tension explanations as the two most likely. The speed with which the Americans committed to the ISIS story speaks in favour of Ukrainian involvement a bit. The option that they were larpers can't be quite dismissed yet either - in that scenario I guess the guy being interviewed was previously beaten and/or bribed into giving this story off screen.

The Americans offering advanced warning to Russia militates against American/Ukrainian direct involvement. Though it wouldn't surprise me to find out that Ukraine did facilitate or did little to prevent an attack on Russia by a 3rd party.

The warning, as far as I remember, didn't name any potential perpetrator and was so conspicuously broad and scarce on details that it's actually hard to read as something that would help the addressees and hinder the terrorists.