Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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Gigantic terrorist attack at a concert in Moscow in progress. At least 140 dead probably significantly higher. The concert hall is on fire and currently collapsing. Perpetrators unknown. Multiple shooters with AKs.
Edited to add: Looks like ISIS had claimed responsibility, Putin will be making a statement soon
Second Edit Reuters and Skynews are reporting a second attack at an emergency medical center at least 28 dead there. (Third edit: this seems to be an erroneous report based on a western news outlets mistranslation of a Russian news broadcast)
Fourth edit Putin and the FSB have made statements in the past hours claiming that the concert hall attackers were attempting to flee to Ukraine and had Ukrainian assistance in entering Russia to carry out the attack
Fifth Edit FSB alleges attackers were detained 85 miles from the Ukrainian border on a near a highway heading south. Attackers indicted in Russian court. They appear to have been tortured.
Sixth Edit FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov claims in official statement that the Ukraine, the United States and the United Kingdom were behind the attack
I kind of doubt that the Kiev government is responsible. Right now Western public support for giving Ukraine unlimited aid is wavering - so the Kiev government would have to be kind of insane to risk the absolutely horrible optics of launching a jihadi-style mass killing of random civilians.
It would be going way beyond things like incorporating open Nazis in the ranks, blowing up Nord Stream 2, shelling Belgorod, trying to kill Dugin and killing his daughter by mistake, or blowing up Vladlen Tatarsky at a cafe.
One can sort-of justify the Nazis through Ukraine's desperate need for military personnel and the fact that the Nazis are largely fighting against uniformed Russian soldiers (and Western media is unlikely to focus too much on any other things the Nazis might engage in, like maybe some suppression of dissidents), most Westerners don't really care about Nord Stream 2, shelling Belgorod is easily justified by Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, and the assassinations were launched against specific Russian pro-war targets.
Attacking completely random civilians in a jihadi style that reminds Westerners of recent attacks against their own countries carries such terrible optics if exposed that I really struggle to believe that the Ukrainian government would be stupid enough to do it given the lack of benefit. The Nazis at least actually provide a good bit of benefit to the Kiev government's war-making capability even if their optics are terrible... but killing 100 completely random Russian civilians does what exactly? Makes Putin look weak? Anybody who reads about the history of war a bit will realize that such actions are more likely to solidify support for the country's leader, not hurt it.
Of course governments do not always make decisions rationally, but given the cost-benefit analysis as it seems to me, I think that the level of irrationality necessary to attempt something like this would be significantly greater than anything I've seen from the Kiev government so far.
If it is true that the perpetrators were apprehended along the highway to Ukraine, that can potentially be explained by the fact that realistically, attempting to cross the Ukraine border despite having no ties to the Ukraine government could have been their best chance of survival. If they tried to go to Tajikistan, the long arm of the FSB would probably not find it too hard to follow them there.
I struggle to figure out how exactly they would have crossed the border without being discovered given that the border is, presumably, pretty well defended from the Russian side. Not that "pretty well defended from the Russian side" is saying much, given the length of the border and the mediocre quality of the Russian military (probably even more mediocre among troops stationed on a relatively peaceful part of the border). But it still would be running a gigantic risk. However, the theory that they were under orders from Kiev and had pre-arranged contacts with the Ukrainians suffers from the same problem... they would still have to figure out how to cross the border somehow.
Also, if you could make terrorist attack in Russia then why they would waste it on this? For example with drones they target refineries, air bases and so on. There is still more of that in Russia.
Note that it does not even imply they were trying to get to Ukraine. Maybe they were going to Belarus, running away randomly or trying to get to prepared hideout.
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