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The way I see it, there's simply no way to meaningfully prevent AI developments. The level of coordination and authoritarianism necessary is simply beyond the ability of human society as it exists. Our only shot of survival is that the doomers are wrong and the alignment problem is actually easy to solve or isn't a problem at all, or perhaps for some unforeseen reason, AGI and ASI are actually impossible to create. So all we can do is to let the chips fall where they may and party until the lights go out.
If it turns out that the lights do go out, then we want that final party to be the best party ever, the culmination of all of human civilization. I want the final experiences of the final humans to have ever lived to be worthy of that position, worthy of the billions and billions of people who were born, lived, suffered, and died to carry us to that point. And the more we develop AI in the meanwhile before the lights go out, the better those final experiences will be. And the fewer restrictions there are for AI development, more everyday laymen will be able to come closer to experiencing that zenith of human civilization before we're all snuffed out. It'd be a shame if only Musk and Bezos were privy to the best party that has and will ever exist in human existence.
If it turns out that the lights don't go out, then the accelerated progress in AI helps to ensure a more prosperous future, since it matters quite a bit how quickly we develop these things. If we can get AI that cures cancer, it matters to millions and millions of people whether we do it this year or next year. Or even if it's something more minor like AI being able to create better tailor-made programs to help people lose weight, getting people to a healthy weight this year is much better than doing it next year, in terms of real lives saved beyond just quality of life. And regulation seems likely to delay the progress of tech that could produce benefits to people like this.
A lot of the effective altruist types seem to be saying we should all stay home instead of enjoying the party because there is a small chance the punch is poisoned. I'm willing to take that risk. Staying home sucks and the party looks way more fun.
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The problem isn’t preventing them. As you say it’s impossible more or less. My concern with the over-emphasis on creating safety rules is that it almost guarantees that the AGI will be built in secret by people unconcerned with safety or worse wanting to use it for military or other aggressive purposes. This is the part I don’t see talked about much— whoever creates the first AGI will shape it to a large degree. And if that person is not “aligned” himself, then the ease of solving the alignment problem doesn’t actually matter.
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