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Notes -
Iran-Israel War(?)
Well it's happening gents. Iran has launched a massive attack at Israel, consisting of at least 100 drones followed up by cruise missiles, and with ballistic missiles assumed (possibly confirmed) to follow. Presumably this is intended to saturate and overwhelm Israeli Air Defenses. Iran has stated this is a response to what is claimed to be an Israeli strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, which killed seven members of the Revolutionary Guard including two top commanders. Israel has not claimed responsibility for this attack, but it is largely agreed by those in the know that Israel did it. Without attempting to consensus build, I will assume arguendo that Israel did in fact bomb the Iranian Consulate unless I see evidence to the contrary. Netanyahu has convened his war cabinet, the British PM has condemned the attack, and President Biden while apparently initially going to address the nation has instead called a "lid" meaning no more announcements today.
Civilians in Tehran and across Iran are preparing for what is believed to be an inevitable Israeli counterstrike.
As of writing Israeli, British, American, and allegedly Jordanian jets are in the process of intercepting drones and missiles en route to Israel. The attack appears to be against exclusively military targets, a pleasant change of pace from the general behavior of Middle Eastern combatants.
Update: Well it appears this was much ado about what has become something of a nothingburger. While I hesitate to call a mass drone/missile strike by Iran against Israel nothing, well. Iran has stated that the matter is concluded, and Israel has claimed interception of 99% of the incoming drones and missiles. Israeli medical authorities have reported no casualties as of a few minutes ago, aside from a Bedouin 10-year-old girl in serious condition. This number may rise, but it is my opinion that it is unlikely to break mid double digits.
Update 2: After a phone call between Biden and Netanyahu, it appears that Israel no longer intends to retaliate. The tit has been tatted, and since no Israel citizens have died, and only the one poor girl was injured, the Netanyahu administration seems willing to just let this one go instead of escalating.
I'm pre-registering a very optimistic prediction. If it was meant to really be act of war/do damage, why was the attack telegraphed in advance? Also, per Fars, only targets identified by government sources so far are bases in the Golan Heights and one in the Negev desert. This matches the pattern of the symbolic post-Soleimani response - remember when people start talking about ballistic missiles that those were used then too. Am I wish-casting? Yes, probably, but I do genuinely think this is probably not going to be disastrous.
Edit: just seen this tweet from the Iranian mission to the UN saying that 'the matter can be deemed concluded'. Thank god, though the danger not passed if some of the missiles/drones do get through and do some real damage.
https://x.com/Iran_UN/status/1779269993043022053
I agree that Iran intends this as a face saving measure and not as a real attack. But they fucked up... badly.
It appears that almost all of the attacks are being shot down and (it's early so grain of salt) Jordan and Saudi Arabia are even helping Israel shoot them down. This confirms that Iran is much weaker and more impotent than thought. They aren't actually capable of hurting Israel in a direct way.
So the question becomes what does Israel do now. Bill Ackman is tweeting a source called Israeli Radar which says :
"Senior source: Israeli response vs. Iran will be unprecedented; don't go to sleep tonight."
Well, we all know how reliable "senior sources" are so I wouldn't expect an Israeli attack. But I wouldn't rule it out either. Israel probably has 48-72 hours to attack Iran's nuclear program before their hall pass expires.
Edit: Looks like Biden is telling Israel they don't have a hall pass.
In general I agree with you.
However, if Iran launched its full capabilities in conjunction with Hezbollah that would be a mess.
Not in the sense that Iran could meaningfully degrade Israel’s military capacities, but in the sense of wanton destruction and death. Presumably, Israel would respond with an invasion of Lebanon and major retaliatory strikes on Iran.
So Iran still has that option and I don’t think this operation changes the perception of that risk from Israel.
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I'd look at traditional media coverage. If the coverage is "Iran launched an enormous attack, stretching Israel's defences to their limits", then face is saved and it worked. But if the coverage is "Iran launched a nothingburger attack and Israel laughed at their incompetence", then Iran might need to escalate some more in order to save the proper amount of face.
While I think it's really the 2nd way, if I thought that anyone cared what I thought, I wouldn't go around saying it, and would publicly stick to the 1st way (while in private I'd still probably make this argument). Because I don't want the situation in the Middle East to escalate any more, and in a lot of ways it seems like this sort of limited exchange is good for both the governments of Iran and Israel. Not that I like either of those governments, but I think it might be bad if either collapsed during the current crisis. (I think the sooner Netanyahu is booted from office, the better, but it should be done in a way that reinforces Israel's democracy.)
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I expect nothing from Israel. This feels like a textbook we have to do something but don’t want to escalate so we sent an attack that is easily defended. I believe Iran even said they consider the matter settled.
Honestly though Iran probably needed a handful of dead Israelis. This feels like a prepackaged diplomatic attack.
Most likely you're right.
But I do believe that Israel is at least able to hurt Iran if they wanted to. The same is not true of Iran. Getting all your missiles shot down does not project the message of strength they intended.
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