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Notes -
A Tone-Shift in the Ukraine War
Lately, I've noticed that the tone of the discussion regarding Ukraine both on the Motte and on X has changed considerably. Notably, it seems that people are taking a much more pessimistic view of Ukraine's chances. The default assumption now is that Ukraine will lose the war.
I think a stalemate is still quite possible, but the more optimistic assumptions that Ukraine would regain lost territory (or comically, Crimea) are now a dead letter. So what, exactly, are our leaders thinking? Recently, Macron went off-narrative a bit, suggesting that France could send troops into Ukraine. More ominously, Secretary of State Blinken said that Ukraine will join NATO.
Perhaps Western leaders view this sabre-rattling as good for their electoral chances. And, until recently, the war was seen as a relatively cost-effective way to weaken Russia. (Sadly, this seems to have failed as Russia has freely exported oil to India and China and is making armaments in great numbers).
But what of Ukrainians themselves? Will they tire of being NATO's cat's paw? It's impossible to find good numbers on how many Ukrainian men have been killed so far in this war. It's likely in the hundreds of thousands. Towns and villages throughout the country are devoid of men, as the men (hunted by conscription) either flee, hide, or are sent to the fronts.
User @Sloot shared this nuclear-grade propoganda. While Ukrainian men fight and die in some trench, an increasing number of Ukrainian women are finding new homes (and Tinder dates) in Germany. Concern about female fidelity has always been a prominent feature of wartime propaganda. But, this takes it to a new level, since the women are in a different country, making new, better lives for themselves. How many will ever even return to Ukraine?
Ukrainian men are getting a raw deal in an effort to reconquer lost territory, whose residents probably want to be part of Russia anyway. Why should Ukrainians fight and die for some abstract geopolitical goal of NATO?
Trumps not going to lose this war. He will escalate to deescalate. It’s either going to end up frozen on current lines or American AirPower shreds the Russians.
Bidens been doing his typical Biden shit and screwing things up. He has had approval to send more weapons and has not. His people are afraid of escalation when the only thing Russians know is power.
Russian apologists will say Trump can’t do this. He’s not going to start his next administration losing a war. Winning a war gets all the neocons back on team Trump and kills all the lefts mythology of Trump being a Russian agent. Ukranians can fight the Russians to a standstill which is nothing compared to modern American military hardware and training. Send in some Polish ground forces backed by US air and the wars over in a month.
Trump escalating isn't entirely out of the question given how prone to escalation he was with Iran, but thus far Trump has only indicated that he'd strong-arm Ukraine into essentially surrendering.
He also indicated he would strong arm Russia into peace.
Source on this part? So far I've only seen articles saying he'd force UA to give up land, or else risk getting cut off from all US aid, and maybe other punishments on top. I haven't heard his idea of strong-arming Russia.
He didn’t say he was going full send in the Air Force. But he did promise more arms than they’ve gotten.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-russia-ukraine-war-b2377077.html
Thanks for the link. So he basically said he would... keep doing what Biden was doing, but "bigger" in an unspecified way.
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