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I thought we are beyond this already, the same was said before invasion of Ukraine. If anything - why should he not invade? He is already considered a pariah, Russia is sanctioned, NATO already sent a lot of available weapons from their military storage and with other conflicts in Middle East and potential issues with Taiwan he may just try it. Rhetorically Russia already claims that they are effectively at war with NATO so it is also nothing that the Russians themselves would be shocked about.
But this was not even the point of my post, which was focused more on Ukraine and Ukrainians who would be at the mercy of what whatever Putin sees as his pet project and his legacy. They would be the buffer zone, they would be Putin's shocktroops and their role would be to do whatever is needed in order for the Russian core to be as shielded from any negative impacts of regimes decisions as possible. I can imagine imposing some sort of reparations in the same way Soviets did it to East Germany. We can see more pressure for russification and myriads of other things that could ruin the nation culturally, economically and morally. So the point is that just saying "Ukrainians are dying" is not some ultimate argument it seems to be, one always has to also add "compared to what" - as they may continue dying while achieving nothing after "peace" with Russia. Again it would be good to ask people in Luhansk and Donetsk or even people now living in other occupied territories in Ukraine about how happy are they not being "pawns of NATO" but being part of Russian Mir nine years after "peace" negotiated in Minsk. What an upgrade.
People in the know (Mearsheimer had a talk on this in '14, Bill Burns-the ambassador said as much in his leaked 2008 memo etc) have been saying Ukraine is liable to get invaded if US tries to integrate it into NATO.
US:
So who exactly was saying Ukraine won't get attacked?
Russia, repeatedly, for months before the attack (while marshalling troops to the order and conducting exercises). See this or this or this. Similar indications were repeated by Very Respectable Western commentators ("Russia won't invade Ukraine, what would it gain from it?") for the same duration.
Look, unless you're a 13 year old girl, you should probably understand by now that almost anything any government says that's not in an ultimatum is either lies or bullshit. And even the ultimatums can be bullshit, e.g. bluffing. Historical record is full of lies of this kind.
"I don't believe anything until it has been officially denied" is a 19th century saying.
So why this insistence that what is officially being said by people who are unlikely to be privy to the real plans matters ?
What is said in ultimatums (government to government communications) or in secret cables matters far, far more. Anything for public consumption is typically fake.
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