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Culture War Roundup for the week of April 15, 2024

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Russia, repeatedly, for months before the attack (while marshalling troops to the order and conducting exercises). See this or this or this. Similar indications were repeated by Very Respectable Western commentators ("Russia won't invade Ukraine, what would it gain from it?") for the same duration.

Look, unless you're a 13 year old girl, you should probably understand by now that almost anything any government says that's not in an ultimatum is either lies or bullshit. And even the ultimatums can be bullshit, e.g. bluffing. Historical record is full of lies of this kind.

"I don't believe anything until it has been officially denied" is a 19th century saying.

So why this insistence that what is officially being said by people who are unlikely to be privy to the real plans matters ?

What is said in ultimatums (government to government communications) or in secret cables matters far, far more. Anything for public consumption is typically fake.