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PaperclipPerfector  13d ago (text post)   24076 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of May 6, 2024

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Do you think that this is enough to also say that no major IoT startup success is likely to be based in California any time soon?

Nah, California has inertia and the funding apparatus there is still stronger than anywhere in the world, which is more meaningful. Not to mention the regulatory framework for innovation in general is looser in the US.

But it's telling that the companies that exist right now that fit the bill are also in Texas and Massachusetts these days, that used to be more rare. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some exodus. But it's probably down to the taxes than line items from small regulation.

I don't think that's a requirement that is on the table anywhere, except for perhaps some niche customers

You're forgetting automotive and think that energy grid infra is a lot looser than it actually is, but other than that it's broadly correct.

that's kind of a nothingburger?

I think we're talking past each other. This regulation in and of itself is a nothingburger. It's the tendency I'm speaking to, which is what was alluded to in the OP.

Regulation is a dynamic process, it never stops at one law and very few of its slopes are not slippery.

aren't really "concerns" that can be addressed in context of the very specific document that we have in front of us

In this house we discuss the Bailey, not the Motte.

Do you think that this is enough to also say that no major IoT startup success is likely to be based in California any time soon?

Nah

Ok, cool. Then epsilon regulation doesn't instantly kill 100% of innovation.

I think we're talking past each other. This regulation in and of itself is a nothingburger. It's the tendency I'm speaking to, which is what was alluded to in the OP.

Regulation is a dynamic process, it never stops at one law and very few of its slopes are not slippery.

Well, then we can probably dig back into the history books to find the first actual regulation that was placed on the tech industry. Whenever it was, it was in the past. The complaint that if we have epsilon regulation, it will definitely be a slippery slope to infinite regulation was valid then, but we're past that threshold now. Now, regulation is a dynamic process; the question is whether this regulation is part of a slippery slope toward infinite regulation, or if it's actually mostly basic shit that everyone has already known they should be doing anyway.

In this house we discuss the Bailey, not the Motte.

I mean, no? It's literally TheMotte. And this betrays that your reasoning doesn't even follow the Motte/Bailey dynamics. It was:

So the motte-and-bailey doctrine is when you make a bold, controversial statement. Then when somebody challenges you, you retreat to an obvious, uncontroversial statement, and say that was what you meant all along, so you’re clearly right and they’re silly for challenging you. Then when the argument is over you go back to making the bold, controversial statement.

If anything, you're the one who is making bold, controversial statements (that innovation will grind to a halt, that no innovation happens anymore in any other industry that has any regulation). There's nothing comparable happening in the other direction. What even is the Bailey that you speak of?

EDIT: Your Bailey seems to be "an epsilon regulation grinds innovation down to zero". When someone challenges you on this, you retreat to an obvious, uncontroversial statement, like, "Regulation is dynamic," but try to sneak in some not-fleshed-out argument about a slippery slope implying infinite regulation. When pulled back to reality, and you're challenged to engage with actually-existing regulation, you're actually pretty silent, unlike at least gattsuru, who at least engages with what's actually going on rather than fever dreams. Why isn't the vastly more reasonable view that you're engaging in a Motte/Bailey argument, while not being able to point to any sort of Bailey from the other side?

It's literally TheMotte.

The fact that it's the wrong way around was remarked on at the time, newfriend.

But let me clarify since you're confused:

The Motte is "epsilon regulation doesn't instantly kill 100% of innovation", a very defensible claim. The Bailey is "I hear about [extensive compliance] from my friends in literally every other industry ever. They still seem capable of operating.", a controversial statement.

My own consistent position is that this regulation is a small advance that is inconsequential by itself but proceeds in a direction that is ultimately incompatible with innovation and that assenting to it is a slippery slope. I therefore oppose it in principle, much like I oppose other regulation that lead in the direction of encroachment of things that I cherish, no matter how reasonable it is.

You may say there are "reasonable" limits we can impose on free speech as well. I still oppose them no matter how reasonable they are.

You may then argue that slippery slope arguments are fallacious, to which I'll retort that they are only so when the slope isn't slippery, and that we have a veritable orgy of historical evidence that smaller regulation almost always lead to larger regulation.

The Bailey is "I hear about [extensive compliance] from my friends in literally every other industry ever. They still seem capable of operating."

This is a true statement about the world, not an outrageous claim, newfriend. You may be thinking that those words mean something other than what those words mean. What are you thinking they mean?

My own consistent position is that this regulation is a small advance that is inconsequential by itself but proceeds in a direction that is ultimately incompatible with innovation and that assenting to it is a slippery slope.

Great! We can surely then have a reasoned discussion about the nature of slippery slope arguments, trying to understand when they hold, to what extent they hold, and whether the premises required for them to have force are present here. I have never objected to the concept of a slippery slope arguments, but it does need some something behind it, otherwise it leaves us vulnerable to just any crazy extrapolation of anything in any domain. We probably wouldn't respond to, "Gay marriage is a slippery slope to marrying dogs!" with, "H-yup. All slippery slope arguments are perfectly valid and correct in all conclusions."

This is a true statement about the world

It's a true statement about your opinion. I disagree with your assessment of what "being capable of operating" entails, as we have gone over already.

it does need some something behind it

it certainly does!

All it needs formally is demonstration that the slope is slippery. Which we can discuss in this case, but I don't really see the argument against given we have dozens of examples in this very specific field, and in other fields of engineering, of the complexity of regulation increasing to smothering levels from previously small demands. Automobiles, airplanes, even dishwashers, you can take your pick of examples.

Will you then disagree that government regulation is a slippery slope? And on what ground will you do so?

I disagree with your assessment of what "being capable of operating" entails, as we have gone over already.

We discussed shale fracking. Now Space X, ozempic, Matt Levine gives tons of examples of financial innovation, we're damn close to self-driving cars, but the hol' up is the tech, not the regulation. The list goes on and on. I do not see any more content in your comment that is anywhere near suitable to claim that we can simply declare this "gone over already". If anything, you just dropped it, because your position didn't go anywhere.

Let's make sure we're on the same page here, so that we are at least confident that we're both actually really ready to engage the slippery slope question honestly, without leaving room for a retreat in this direction. Are other industries capable of operating with some amount of regulation? Not, "Is there a general sense of a regulation-innovation tradeoff?" We agree that there is. The straightforward statement that many other industries are capable of operating with some amount of regulation. Are you going to stick with the position that this is an outlandish Bailey? Or is it simply a true fact about the world, and we can shift the discussion toward slippery slopes?

Now Space X

Careful. You might be using it as an example of the disasters lack of regulation will bring, before you know it.

I think that would be a clear case of malicious regulation, which is an entirely different class of problem. That is to say, if we were discussing something like laws about business records fraud or campaign finance, we'd talk generally about how it generates friction in business processes or has some potential to chill some amount of speech around the edges, and that would be a totally valid discussion with real tradeoffs. But I think it would be an entirely different conversation than talking specifically about Trump being maliciously prosecuted in NY; that has about jack-all to do with real tradeoffs in the space of business records fraud law or campaign finance law; it it purely about malicious actors reaching for literally any tool they can find to hit someone over the head with.

I think that would be a clear case of malicious regulation

I might end up having to do a walk of shame around here, and self-flaggelate about how I mistreated Elon, but I think that SpaceX is going to be seen as an example of "move fast and break things" being applied where it doesn't belong.

I guess "lack of regulation" isn't the right term, because there's been some bizarre political decisions in the process.

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