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Culture War Roundup for the week of May 6, 2024

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Government Programs Should Have Legible Budgets

This kind of rule may come across as obvious, pointless, or doomed depending on your perspective.

There is an impulse among many to see a problem in society and turn to government for a solution. I strongly disagree with this impulse. But I also think that these people and myself could come to terms on some shared "rules of engagement".

To start we should agree on some basic things:

  1. There is an unlimited number of things people might want to "fix" about our society, but a limited amount of resources to spend fixing such things.
  2. There should be a way to determine how many resources we want to spend fixing a particular problem.
  3. Paying to fix the problems should be done in a fair and above board way. (i.e. reverse lotteries where you randomly get fucked over are bad).

There are many devils in the little details, but what these three basic things suggest is that there should be: A set way of collecting taxes. A budget using those taxes that pays out to various social causes. The determination of that budget can be debated upon in some agreed way (maybe by electing representatives to a 'congress'). And that all social programs must go through this set of procedures.

To address the criticisms:

"This is pointless we already do things this way."

Sometimes governments do it this way, sometimes they don't.

The Americans with Disabilities Act does not follow these rules. Private individuals are given the ability to sue other private individuals to provide accommodations for them. The threat of getting sued also encourages a lot of preemptive work on the part of companies. How much does all of this suing and preemptive work cost? No one knows. How much will it cost you to provide for people with disabilities? Maybe a standard amount. Maybe you'll be one of the unlucky ones that gets sued in a new novel interpretation of the law and you'll win a reverse lottery.

How much do you think it is worth it to help disabled people in this country? It seems like a valid political question, but right now the American Government is basically on a blind autopilot path. It cannot know how much is spent. It cannot control how much is spent. And it cannot work out more lucrative and appealing deals for edge cases.

A little while ago (maybe a decade) some university (maybe MIT) decided to put all of their classes online for digital consumption, for free. Sometime later they were forced to take down the entire archive, because they were not subtitled, and a deaf person could not access them. The deaf person wanted them all subtitled. Subtitling a free online resource would have been too expensive and not worth it. So they were instead just removed for everyone. This is the kind of problem that a competent government middleman can solve:

[In the alternative universe where the ADA creates a government middleman agency for solving disability issues.] Each deaf person is allotted $5,000 a year to solve for their disability. They can choose to spend this on hearing implants, or on paying towards having some work transcribed. If enough deaf people want a thing transcribed it gets done. No business owner or non-profit is suddenly held hostage. No single person or entity is stuck paying enormous costs. Things aren't removed from public consumption just because a disabled person can't access it. We know how much is spent on deaf people per year. Medical companies that want to solve or fix a disability have a clear customer market for potential solutions.

This is doomed people would rather have the costs hidden and less obvious.

As I said above, sometimes the government does follow the good set of rules. I'd consider an agency like NASA a good example. The American people give some vague indications of how important they think space science and exploration is to their elected representatives. Those elected representatives can talk with the scientists, engineers, and managers at NASA to determine if maybe there are some important research projects that the general public doesn't know about but might want if they did know about it. NASA's budget is paid through taxes and is a clear line item on the federal budget. For the last two decades NASA has been about 0.5% of the federal budget. Which sounds vaguely correct to me in proportion to how much Americans care about funding Space related stuff.

The cynical reason why I believe that programs have hidden or "laundered" costs is that I don't believe voters would be actually willing to fund them if the true costs were obvious. If a party has a temporary political victory the best the best way to leverage it is through hidden and laundered costs. Pass a medicare act that doesn't really change the rules until you are out of office. Pass a civil rights act with murky enforcement that can be slowly ratcheted up every year.

Despite politicians doing this pretty often, I don't think it is what voters actually want. There is a huge amount of frustration from people over these sorts of policies. Hanania's book the Origins of Woke kind of blew up one of these issues recently. But they are all going to become problems, because when you remove the funding control from government there is no funding control. There is no countervailing force to push down the costs of these various programs. And the only way to get rid of them is often just destroy them altogether. So while people might have supported the ADA if it was 1% of the budget, they might start getting pissed at the program when it balloons up to 10% of the budget and a bunch of reverse lottery sob stories start showing up in the news. And suddenly instead of 10% or even 1% of the budget, you get 0% for your cause and no one trusts you with a 1% allotment cuz they will all remember the horror days of 10%. I don't know how likely a full reversal to 0% is for any of these policies. But that seems to be whats on the table as far as alternatives go.

There is also an ongoing legal weakness to many of these policies. Now that the supreme court is mostly conservative it could start invalidating different laundered cost schemes that have been liberal policy staples for decades. Affirmative action has taken a hit. Paid housing for the homeless might get hit next.


Conclusion

In general I think we should be suspicious of any public program that tries to hide its costs, or launder those costs onto private actors. Anything that expands the scope of things that one individual can sue another for is laundering costs. If you want a social program done or accomplished, you need to be willing to raise taxes and pay for it. If voters can't stomach raising taxes to pay for a particular social program, then too bad! Nothing is free. Start comparing the costs and fighting for them in the agreed upon battlefield.

Excellent post!

In general I think we should be suspicious of any public program that tries to hide its costs, or launder those costs onto private actors.

Another example of this is AML/KYC regulations, which basically require banks to serve as a branch of law enforcement at their own expense. From the excellent Bits About Money post on the topic:

Money laundering is, effectively, a process crime. We criminalized it not because of the direct harms, but because it tends to make other interdiction of criminal activity more difficult.

Money laundering covers anything which obscures the link between another crime and the proceeds of that crime. This is intentionally extremely vague and expansive. The victim is, take your pick, either the state or the financial institutions the state has deputized to detect it. [...]

Much like KYC, AML policies are recursive stochastic management of crime. The state deputizes financial institutions to, in effect, change the physics of money. In particular, it wants them to situationally repudiate the fungibility of money. [...] They are required to have policies and procedures which will tend to, statistically, interdict some money laundering and (similar to how we discussed for KYC) trigger additional crimes when accessing the financial system. Particularly in U.S. practice, one sub-goal of this is maximizing the amount of assets which will be tainted by money laundering and then subject to forfeiture proceedings. [...]

And so every financial institution of any size has a Compliance department. One of their functions is having a technological system which will sift through the constant stream of transactions they produce and periodically fire “alerts.” Those alerts go to an analyst for review.

This implies floors upon floors of people who read tweet-length descriptions of financial transactions and, for some very small percentage, click a Big Red Button and begin documenting the heck out of everything. This might sound like a dystopian parody, and it is important to say specifically that this is not merely standard practice but is functionally mandatory. [...]

I think the thing that cryptocurrency enthusiasts are rightest about, which is broadly underappreciated, is that the financial system has been deputized to act as law enforcement. [...] Is this tradeoff worth it? I wish that society and policymakers more closely scrutinized the actual results obtained by AML policies. Plausibly we get sufficient value out of AML to have people attend mandatory diversity training at 1 PM, Banking the Underbanked seminar at 2 PM, and then AML training at 3 PM, while experiencing very little cognitive dissonance. But if that case can be made, then let it be made. I find the opposing case, that AML consumes vast resources and inconveniences legitimate users far out of proportion to positive impact on the legitimate interest of society in interdicting crime, to be very persuasive.

Sorry for the giant quote-post. I don't have much to say about this topic beyond "the above article is fully consistent with what little experience I have of AML/KYC from my work". I just think that article is very very good and also quite relevant to the topic at hand.