domain:forecasting.substack.com
In short…
- Forecasting platforms and prediction markets are partially making the pie bigger together, and partially undercutting each other.
- The forecasting ecosystem adjusted after the loss of plentiful FTX money.
- Dustin Moskovitz’s foundation (Open Philanthropy) is increasing their presence in the forecasting space, but my sense is that chasing its funding can sometimes be a bad move.
- As AI systems improve, they become more relevant for judgmental forecasting practice.
- Betting with real money is still frowned upon by the US powers that be–but the US isn’t willing to institute the oversight regime that would keep people from making bets over the internet in practice.
- Forecasting hasn’t taken over the world yet, but I’m hoping that as people try out different iterations, someone will find a formula to produce lots of value in a way that scales.
Highlights
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CFTC asking for public comments about allowing Kalshi to phagocytize PredictIt’s niche
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$25k tournament by Richard Hanania on Manifold Markets.
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pastcasting.com allows users to forecast on already resolved questions with unknown resolutions which hopefully results in faster feedback loops and faster learning
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Hedgehog Markets now have automatic market-maker-based markets
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Jonas Moss looks at updating just on the passage of time
I'd prefer comments or questions here on account of themotte.org site being pretty young. Long live The Motte!
Highlights:
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PredictIt nears its probable demise
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American Civics Exchange offers political betting to Americans using weird legal loophole
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Forecasting community member Avraham Eisenberg arrested for $100M+ theft
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Forecasting Research Institute launches publicly
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Blogpost suggests that GiveWell use uncertainty, wins $20k
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Contrarian offers $500k bet, then chickens out
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Walter Frick writes a resource to introduce journalists to prediction markets
Highlights
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Nuclear probability estimates spiked and spooked Elon Musk.
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Council on Strategic Risks hiring for a full-time Strategic Foresight Senior Fellow @ $78k to 114k
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Markov Chain Monte Carlo Without all the Bullshit: Old blog post delivers on its title.