domain:forecasting.substack.com
Highlights:
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PredictIt nears its probable demise
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American Civics Exchange offers political betting to Americans using weird legal loophole
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Forecasting community member Avraham Eisenberg arrested for $100M+ theft
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Forecasting Research Institute launches publicly
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Blogpost suggests that GiveWell use uncertainty, wins $20k
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Contrarian offers $500k bet, then chickens out
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Walter Frick writes a resource to introduce journalists to prediction markets
Highlights
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Nuclear probability estimates spiked and spooked Elon Musk.
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Council on Strategic Risks hiring for a full-time Strategic Foresight Senior Fellow @ $78k to 114k
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Markov Chain Monte Carlo Without all the Bullshit: Old blog post delivers on its title.
Highlights:
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PredictIt vs Kalshi vs CFTC saga continues
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Future Fund announces $1M+ prize for arguments which shift their probabilities about AI timelines and dangers
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Dan Luu looks at the track record of futurists
Highlights
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CFTC asking for public comments about allowing Kalshi to phagocytize PredictIt’s niche
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$25k tournament by Richard Hanania on Manifold Markets.
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pastcasting.com allows users to forecast on already resolved questions with unknown resolutions which hopefully results in faster feedback loops and faster learning
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Hedgehog Markets now have automatic market-maker-based markets
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Jonas Moss looks at updating just on the passage of time
I'd prefer comments or questions here on account of themotte.org site being pretty young. Long live The Motte!