ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
No bio...
User ID: 626
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
6hr ago
For some reason the notification for this response popped up only now for me. Thanks for the confirmation.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
14hr ago
It doesn't exactly feel like a bubble to me because the average Joe isn't getting rich off of it yet. There are no FOMO investors getting into it because their neighbour made a ton of money. That may change with the IPOs.
That's just the thing that pushed me over the ledge and made me post. It's not that it may change, with the IPO, it will. It's mandated by law. Major indices are changing their rules so that these new stocks are included nearly immediately, so anyone doing passive investment - your retirement fund likely included - will be buying them.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
14hr ago
Are you doing the meme? What sort of question is that? I'm relatively well positioned, but I wouldn't want to lose my job in an environment where a good chunk of the workforce has also been fired, for example.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
15hr ago
Ha. Norm MacDonald continues to be relevant.
I don't think that's fair. I'm not trying to make you feel sympathy for Trump, I'm trying to say what comes after him will be worse. See for example the thread after Labour won the most recent election in the UK, and compare to how eit panned out.
what are we supposed to think? Sorry, Trump was just holding the hot potato, blame the wreckers?
The busness cycle is usually beyond any president, so partially yes, but it's clear he also made many unforced errors here.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
How have you been doing @Southkraut?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
I had to scrap my previous approach to the bullet simulation optimization, as I did everything in one go, and manage to break everything else (not terribly surprising, as I extended I bunch of existing data structures, via a lot of copy-pasting). So I reverted that and started over with a more gradual approach, and managed to at least not break anything, but the bullet collision detection still was not working. I avoid using AI for this project, as part of the point is keeping my mind sharp, but after finding a few stupid copy-paste mistakes manually, and stalling after that, I figured it's either building some elaborate debugging tool, or asking Claude, and I caved. It indeed pointed out some other stupid copy-paste mistakes, and now everything works.
Disappointingly, it doesn't seem to be much of an improvement. Ok, so I get 60 FPS with +/- 360K monsters for a few seconds, whereas previously the maximum was 250K, but the GPU get's hot and stalls out rather quickly. I was hoping it would make the simulations with lower monster counts more sustainable, but I can't say I see the difference. One day I have to test it on Windows (my Linux distro is acting a bit weird with the GPU, and most games are kinda choppy), or my old desktop which actually has a decent graphics card.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Wasn't the "basic sanity check" for the Internet back in the 90's also passing? It's entirely possible to land on a piece of viable technology, and still crash the economy by investing in it too much and too early.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Depends on what you mean by "conventional". Just imagine the gaming rig you can build with that.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
A hard nope from me, but yeah, it's a South Park-esque douche vs turd contest.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
The datacenters which were built will still be there and still be useful for 'conventional' computing.
I think that was the case for every bubble investment. The factories, houses, shitty dotcom-era websites were also still there and available, the question is whether they can justify their cost. The wasted capital usually gets picked up eventually, unless the investment is something truly retarded like tulips.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Apart from the "psycho" part, I would agree with your characterisation.
You think stabbing someone, and then recording yourself mocking them as they bleed to death is not "psycho" behavior?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Does anyone else feel like we're heading for a good old-fashioned, 2008-tier, financial crash? I recall people bringing up the possibility ever since Covid bucks started rolling out, but even though we were due for one, and even though the money printer was going brrrrr, the crash has so far failed to materialize.
At the time, I was of two minds about this. On one hand, all the libertarian theory I used to subscribe to said money-printing => boom, boom => bust. On the other hand, the problem for me was it never felt like a boom, and I think this is changing now. A key feature of the pre-crash boom is "malinvestment"; capital going into often downright deranged projects, that are later abandoned half-finished. Well, I feel like the datacenter craze qualifies, and with the wave of AI IPOs that are coming just as major indices are changing their rules, to allow for these companies' near-instantaneous inclusion (an investment so good, you can't pass up on it. Literally, if you're American), it seems like we're solidly in the "irrational exuberance" phase.
Add this to the list of things I hope I'm wrong about, because if we get a proper crash, the political fallout is going to be massive. The script writes itself: Trump / tech bros / capitalism bad, even more gay race communism now.
To whitepillers: is there an argument for why I'm wrong that doesn't boil down to "you don't get it, chud, it's the New Economy! The Singularity is just around the corner! All the rules are obsolete!"? This argument is verboten, because this is pretty much what people say with every bubble.
To fellow blackpillers: any ideas on how to brace for impact? Any IT guys here old enough to make it through the dotcom bubble? How did you do it? Any advice you would have given your past self?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
I don't know that there is a natural end to any political movement, beyond what reality permits. Sadly, it seems like we need to constantly exercise our agency, prudence, etc.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
After all, what comes after reclaiming your lands if not seizing theirs in kind?
This would mean that the reason they are coming here is to seize all our lands, so we should kick them out all the harder, no?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
In that case, why don't we start having regular referendums about abolishing the EU, and reverting every reform they orchestrated. Can't hurt, right?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
They're not quantitative, and, again, they're not pretending to be. What's more they don't have to be. Many people, including highly renowned rationalists, male their arguments off of incentive analysis, and priors, and that's pretty much what Meghan Murphy did, as far I rember.
And again, if she was as bad as you're saying, Aella defeating her would have no bearing on whether she's an actual intellectual, which is the position you have to defend.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
however, the reality is that if people consistently voted against immigration as one of their absolute upper-echelon top priorities, they would get politicians who actually stop immigration.
"If you voted harder, you'd get $thing" does not support the argument for "$opppsite_of_thing is the expression of collective preference".
Also, it's not a "reality". A politician promising to deliver you something as the absolute top priority can still do the opposite, as they often do.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Arguments don't have to be empirical. Also she never pretended to be doing empirical "studies", so pointing out the lack of evidence on her part is a smaller loss for her than it was for Aella. Finally, even if you're right, that does not make her not a pseudo-intellectual.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
I think there might be some people who'd become more reasonable if they were clearly told by the police "if you do not shut up and comply, I am empowered to beat your ass"
Eh... I'm in favor of corporal punishment, but I think it needs to be adjudged, like all other forms of punishment. If you give that power to cops directly, you can be almost certain they'll get drunk on it.
I'm also confused by how many people in the US seem to be driving without their license on them; what the fuck?
It's not a big deal in Europe. You get fined, and you're adding an extra half hour to your detainment as they verify that you do, in fact, have a license, but otherwise it's not a problem.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
What's pseudo about it? She's genuinely an intellectual. In fact she bested Meghan Murphy in their debate over porn and sex work on Benjamin Boyce's podcast a few years ago.
That's probably one of the better examples of her being a pseudo-intellectual. "That's not a study, that's a TikTok poll" was a KO line that she never recovered from (though, I dunno, has she improved her methodology since?).
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
In the UK, the number of people who want the culture war to go hot is indistinguishable from zero.
They might not want it, but they seem to find it likely, which might be the better description of the Boogaloos in America as well.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
6d ago
Well, that's a rather quick turn from "it's a simple matter of doing some calculations with revenue and margins in your excel" to fanciful tales from the land of make-believe. If the result of your formula doesn't match the price after you've plugged in actual revenues, why even bring it up? Why is the valuation based on a fantasy scenario where all the other manufacturers are expected to fall off a cliff more correct, than one where Tesla is expected to fall off a cliff?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
6d ago
and a mix of women, transwomen, effeminate men who like it up the butt
Come on, you can't start off with "gayness is a western construct" and then drop "transwomen" in there. If anything it's the opposite, the non-modern, non-western constructs that activists like to appropriate as "trans" are actually closer to our conception of "gay" - effeminate men who like it up the butt.
So if we apply this formula to, say, Tesla, do we get it's current price? From what I understand, it's worth more than all the other auto companies combined, so either it's overvalued, or they're undervalued. With that in mind, what does it mean for the price to be "wrong"? What's supposed to happen if the "efficient market" doesn't get the price "right"?
It sounds like he didn't understand the argument he's disputing. Malinvestments aren't necessarily "objectively bad investments that are destined to fail", their failure and "badness" stems from whether the current interest matches the market time preference, so I don't see how "one would expect that as expansions get longer they get more and more likely to end". I heard about Schumpeter, but I don't recall anything specific he said, so I don't know if he was portrayed accurately.
Maybe. I can easily imagine people doing even more harm, but I don't see what it has to do with what I asked. My question was about what I, personally, can do to brace for impact, not for policy recommendations.
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