ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
No bio...
User ID: 626
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
28m ago
As women spend the most fertile years at school and then they work to wipe out debt,
Isn't that a distinctly Anglo problem? I suppose continental Europe also has private schools, but that's not what everyone is aiming for, and I've never heard of public-university-educated women being more fertile.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1hr ago
What exactly are you aiming for - neutrality / culture war banned, or letting people self organize as long as they label themselves clearly? Either one has it's appeal, but your first post seems to be pointing to the latter, and the second the former.
I like the idea of adding sub-communities, but I don't know if we have enough people to fill in 7 zillion niches.
I think the problem is that a lot of these sites just aren't good. They're trying to beat Reddit by being a worse Reddit but with a better set of people.
That makes it sound like the bigger concern is going to be technological, not sociological. Do you have a good idea of what you want to do better. How big of a scope we're talking about here (because at first glance it sounds pretty big)?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
20hr ago
As per my recent post a big 2008-type crash, possibly conveniently timed for an election, and this possibly leading to my long-predicted downfall of Elon, and tech-libertarianism.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
There's a social media element to it for sure, but there definitely is a trans element to it as well. I distinctly remember Philosophy Tube getting a visible bump in patreon subscriptions, and I think I recall someone going through other examples of suddenly trans influencers.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
What other standard do you intend to use then?
Why are you acting the 10 years never happened? Why are you acting like you haven't been linked specific examples from which the standard is absolutely clear? Why are you doing so specifically after you explicitly defended firing people for edgy jokes?
I don't mind you defending a different position, but again, who do you think you are fooling?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
The problem is they haven't gotten far.
Well, at least as far as Starship is concerned, neither has SpaceX.
If rocket reliability requires exploiting Wright's law, Elon is very much ahead.
If. All the Falcons they produced didn't seem to help them get to a running start with Starship.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
Can you show me any dark humor joke that a person has been charged and convicted of in the US in the past 30 years?
Can you point me to the comment in this chain that says any of this conversation is about charging and convicting people?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
I'm not fooling anyone
Yes, that's what I said. I'm pretty sure someone gave you a list of cancellable jokes within the last day or so. Also, you keep providing links to exactly one kind of offensive humor, and avoiding the kinds that you know are still cancelable. Hell, you even explicitly defended cancellations for dark humor.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
Oh if you're saying the opposite and that dark humor isn't allowed anymore, then you're even more wrong. I see plenty of 9/11 jokes
Or let's say, Epstein!
Like I said: "no, not all sorts". There used to be period on the internet where you could run wild with all sorts of offensive humor, but it's long gone, and I don't know who you think you're fooling by saying we're still in it.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
Yet their discussions are still interesting and, via insight, occasionally useful.
Yeah, but it feels like putting Gene Roddenberry in charge of Earth defense, upon news of an alien invasion.
my problem is that they don't have much relation to the interesting question. This is the usual forecasting problem.
I just wanted a way to get out of the "would the Enterprise win against a Star Destroyer" type nerd slapfights. I agree it was far from optimal, but it was the only thing I could come up with, and no one actually stopped to raise that particular objection at the time. The bet-takers thought Elon is great, so he will surely crack this trivial problem in no-time, which was part of the problem I was meaning to highlight.
FSD works, Waymo is reportedly great, so Tesla robotaxi also could work.
Well, hold on. Waymo has a very different approach to Tesla. It's armed to the teeth with sensors - cameras, radar, lidar, audio... the works. I think they even do a high-definition scan of the cities they deploy in. Elon claimed he could crack it with cameras and AI alone. Using one as an example for why the other could work seems wrong. What's more, he was constantly promising that all the hardware for a better-than-human FSD is already inside each and every Tesla, and it's just a question of working out the kinks in the software. That soon (next year, next year, next year... no matter which year we were currently in), at the press of a button, every Tesla would become fully autonomous. Recently they said some of the older hardware might not be enough, and that they will need to upgrade it, and more recently still they gave up on even that idea. People paid a pretty steep price for a feature that never arrived.
Optimus is a legitimately good robot
Did they make some great leap recently that I'm not aware of? I think every other robotics company I've seen came up with something more impressive. It even looks like they're remotely controlled during their demos.
it's just not the time for robots yet
Well, but if it's not time for robots, why is he acting like this is the very thing that will take the entire company to an entirely new level? Transform human society, even. Shouldn't his car company focus on cars, and leave humanoid robots as a niche R&D project?
Starship is a categorical breakthrough in space logistics, which is the one area where Elon is far ahead of the competition already.
Maybe. Like I said your arguments for why it can work sound reasonable to me, but the problem is they sound similar to why FSD can work. I also saw what I think is a very similar next year / next year / next year dynamic with it. He used to do these semi-regular all-hands meeting at Starbase, where he'd talk about Starship (I think I linked to them in the old post I referred to in the previous comment), and from what I recall they started off with saying Starship V1 will be able to take 100t to orbit, a few years later that V1 could take (100 -X)t to orbit but V2 will be able to take 100t, and a few more years after that, that V1 could take (100 - X - Y)t to orbit, V2 (100 - X)t, but V3 will be able to take 100t.
Maybe they'll finally crack it, but it looks like "fake it 'till you make it" to me. I used to work for a guy like that, that would make insane promises to clients, and than expected me to deliver. If I have MDS, it might just be PTSD that Elon is triggering by reminding me of the experience.
About SpaceX being ahead of the competition: yes, but this used to also be the case for Tesla, and now BYD overtook it. There are other companies who are still in the nipping at the heels phase, but it's not obvious to me why it would stay this way given how difficult Staship development is proving to be, and how far they already got with their own rockets of similar class.
but why would Scott, a psychiatrist who happens to be interested in ratsphere ideas, be responsible?
Why does Scott, a psychiatrist who happens to be interested in ratsphere ideas, coauthor these websites that purport to be about serious policy proposals?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
Well for the last 4 years we've been burning through benchmarks at great speed.
Ok, and how many of them were done by MIRI?
We're onto ARC-AGI 3 now, SWE-Pro is just now out... What benchmark were they supposed to make 10 years ago, 5 years ago, 1 year ago?
Exactly the ones we burned through? We're talking about math and theory here, I don't see a reason why these things couldn't be prepared ahead of time.
These were the guys who are worried about recursive self improvement and then we have Anthropic nerfing Fable's ML skills so it doesn't help competitors making AI, we have OpenAI guys on twitter saying 'GPT5.6 Sol did the post-training on GPT5.6 Luna'.
That seems pretty self-improving to me?
No? Distillation is not self-improvement. The kind of recursive self-improvement the Rats were talking about would be if you could distill Fable just from the output of Opus.
Has the legal system come up with a benchmark for aligning humans in the last 5000 years?
Interesting comparison. Let me take a particular aspect of the legal system that is analogous here. Way back when, people would occasionally get into fight about gun control on this forum (and I think that the kind of dynamics I'm about to describe still occasionally pop up). A blue triber would say they're just in favor of "common sense regulation", and what would inevitably surface from conversation is that:
a) They have no idea how guns actually work, leading them to suggest laws far more unreasonable than they imagined, and
b) To the extent their ideas were "common sense", they had no idea of what laws were already on the books, and didn't know that laws far more restrictive were already in effect
I don't think we should listen to people like that on policy, and I think it's roughly analogous to the Rat crowd on AI.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
Ok, but don't tell me then it's just "le edgy zoomer humor" when you know an analogous joke from the other side will get you banned from any mainstream platform that is not Twitter in, like, 5 seconds.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
I'm saying dark humor, at least a certain political flavor of it, has become haram somewhere in the 2010's, so you finding an old video of an instance of dark humor that is not offensive to the side that declares things haram proves... what exactly?
Anyway, FFC pretty much proved your "tee he, it's just edgy jokes" facade is just an act.
Yud and Scott in particular at a minimum, and/or the AI 2027/2040 people, but honestly, the entirety of the AI-focused Rat-sphere in general.
What is the value of having a benchmark to judge progress?
Approximately the same as the value of a thermometer when you want to talk about global warming.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4d ago
Personally, I just don't share the optimism of these guys in either direction.
I think it's worse than that. They had, what, a decade of a head start on this subject? Two? Did they come up with a single actually applicable benchmark that can be used to judge a model's progress to "ASI"? Did they come up with a single benchmark to judge alignment?
I'm struggling to understand why I should listen to a single word they are saying.
Send me a few links to where he did that to liberals or progressives, and I might buy that. Niche independent online fora are weird place to do "contrarianism".
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4d ago
People joke about 9/11, and suicides, and all sorts of other dark crap.
No, not all sorts. What you're describing hasn't been believable for over a decade.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4d ago
Yeah, but I can hook up my router and let it accumulate dust until approximately forever (I never had one break), my desktops were also quite reliable, but I sometimes had to get a new part. The SysAdmin guys taking care of the servers at the companies I worked for, OTOH, were always running around and tinkering with shit. Pointless busywork? Upgrades that aren't going to be a part of equation here (but if so, isn't that a pretty big downside for putting these things in space?)?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4d ago
On the flip side, properly engineered, there would be few moving parts, and low risk of environmental damage. Something like 99.8% of Starlink satellites are operational with a median age of a little over 5 years, so it doesn't seem implausible on first impression that AI satellites would experience similarly low rates of failure.
I dunno, man. Space Routers sounds a lot more simple than Space Datacenters...
Does the Colas Group count?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4d ago
What I want to know about space datacenters is what's the plan for repairs and maintenance. Or is the idea: "YOLO, just deorbit it, and launch a new one"?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4d ago
Zero serious engineering organizations were involved in any of the various "solar freakin roadways" proposals.
What do you mean by "serious engineering organizations"? There were several of those built in Europe (Germany, France, and the Netherlands, off the top of my head), and they were, predictably, all boondoggles, but I assume they were built by "serious engineering organizations". Now, it was all most likely corrupt political deal-making, but someone "serious" put their name on it.
I was thinking more in terms of work that needs to be done. If this site is as bad as you say, making the switch would necessarily imply having the new platform ready first. On the other hand, you say that we have enough headroom, so maybe not?
Let me put it this way: generally your idea sounds good. The sociological specifics don't sound so important to me, and I'm trying to figure out if / how much I can help from the technical side.
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