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The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.

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joined 2022 September 05 17:27:40 UTC

				

User ID: 647

netstack

The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.

10 followers   follows 3 users   joined 2022 September 05 17:27:40 UTC

					

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User ID: 647

“Well, in 200 years Sam and Sam are going to need a Second Foundation. Guess we better get a head start.”

So I started reading this when Gwern posted it. Closed out partway through. Something about this sort of retrospective feels like a real…guilty pleasure? Voyeurism? Like I’m engaging in the kind of behavior that annoys me about Kiwifarms. Point and laugh at the bizarro cult.

Sometimes I’ll get sucked in to watching bodycam channels. Random police officers shooting violent criminals, that sort of thing. Usually censored—I’m not looking for gore—but still pretty macabre, no? Hence, guilty pleasure. If I had a real habit of it I think it would seriously skew my model of how policing or crime actually work.

So when I got that feeling reading this, I felt like I should stop giving it attention. Maybe that makes me a bad rationalist. “That weird cult which can be destroyed by the truth should be.” Guess I need to go do some reiki about it.

I’m not even sure I can find the extremist Christian scandals. There was YFZ ranch back in 2008/2014, but that was a weird branch Mormon cult compound. Also, it was raided by Texas; I can’t imagine they’d be any more lenient towards a comparable Islamic cult.

I assume you mean Child Protective Services?

I don’t get the impression that Muslims are getting extra slack when raising children, but it’s really hard to tell. Search results are fixated on England. What exactly do you have in mind?

I know one white guy who converted to Islam to marry his former grad student. No idea if they have kids.

I would make a distinction between representation in media versus around media.

Within media, I think it’s close to the second. I would not call it a “virtue” signal, implying insincerity; if writing a plot that flatters one’s beliefs is insincere, we might as well throw out most of the canon.

Authorship or creative control of media is more complicated.

Consider the historical “well-rounded” education, which often involved reading a bunch of classics in the original Greek or Latin. Experiencing unfamiliar literature is expected to have inherent value. Tapping into an entire world’s worth of traditions, rather than the most visible ones, should work at least as well. I personally find this argument very persuasive.

Now extend it to familiar traditions, but unfamiliar situations. Reading a memoir about an event 80 years ago. Reading a retrospective of somebody’s niche interest. Reading a reaction to recent events from someone who grew up in your country, went through all the same schools, but is of the opposite sex. All of these are giving you something that you can’t access on your own. Diverse authorship offers diverse experiences offers the modern well-rounded education.

Now apply Goodhart’s Law, accounting for all the people who would like to claim their work is unique and enriching, and Sturgeon’s law, accounting for all those who really, really aren’t. There we have it: the modern commodification of diversity. It’s a shame, but it’s not at all unique to this particular subject. Anything that signals novelty will get picked up as a signal, because novelty is the most important thing in (monetizing) art.

Shadow of the Torturer, Gene Wolfe. Excellent atmosphere. Remarkably likable characters, all things considered, and constantly reminds you that things are going to get weirder.

Moving on to Banks’ Inversions before I have to take it back to the library. I feel like I can see the greater structure he’s going for, but I’m not quite sure how it comes together. I think I’m benefiting from reading it right after another novel of sci-fantasy torture politics.

I have seen MAGA defined by putting Trump over the party; if that’s accurate, you’ll have a hard time finding Trump-agnostic MAGA Republicans. I think that definition is probably a little uncharitable, and there is some constituency who have picked up the slogan without any strong feelings about the man.

The principled MAGA perspective derives from national self-interest. Defense, trade, foreign aid: Americans as a people are selling ourselves too cheap, and should act as a people to get a better deal.

For obvious reasons, this will not be very appealing to random Europeans.

No, I don’t know this guy.

I don’t think nukes are likely, either. This is more likely a strong filter bubble.

“DLC” took off in the Xbox Live era, once consoles all had Internet connections. It was suddenly much more practical to sell things for prices which would never merit a physical printing. The term was perfectly reasonable until digital distribution of entire games became common.

I’m not sure I believe that.

Every foundation that has a press release about the cuts claims they pursued substitute funding. Here is a summary of some of the big players’ actions. Those make up a big fraction of philanthropy.

I know individual giving is up, as might be expected from a year with reasonable economic growth. I don’t know where that increase is going; it’s hard to find granular stats. If somebody here has access to the full Giving USA Report which just came out, maybe they can give more details. In lieu of that, the best I can offer are pieces applauding some of the efforts to minimize the damage.

There are a lot of people out there who really, truly believe what they’re saying. I don’t think you can dismiss them out of hand.

Americans started having smaller families in the antebellum period. From McPherson, Battle Cry of Freedom:

The economic transformation coincided with—and in part caused—a change in the quality of family life as well as the quantity of children. As the family became less an economic unit it ripened into a covenant of love and nurturance of children. The ideal of romantic love increasingly governed the choice of a marriage partner, a choice made more and more by young people themselves rather than by their parents. And if wives now had a lesser economic role, they enjoyed a larger familial one. Patriarchal domination of wife and children eroded in urban areas as fathers went away from home for most waking hours and mothers assumed responsibility for socializing and educating the children. Affection and encouragement of self-discipline replaced repression and corporal punishment as the preferred means of socialization in middle-class families. These families became more child-centered—a phenomenon much noted by European visitors. Childhood emerged as a separate stage of life. And as parents lavished more love on their children, they had fewer of them and devoted more resources to their education by sending them to school in greater numbers for longer periods of time.

Now, I think that’s probably a romanticized view. More importantly, it’s focused on the urban population, where factories pull men out of the home and undercut women’s traditional industries. Families start buying a lot more textile and soap and whatnot rather than making it all day. I would expect the frontier to maintain higher family sizes, because they have much less access to those markets. But it’s not like they were low-status in this era of romanticizing the frontier. My point is that the urban middle class started to have fewer children during a time when large families were still pretty high-status. The trend reflected demand for young, unskilled labor.

My impression is that those same fundamentals held in America’s postwar transition. As our economy pushed towards service and knowledge-work instead of manual or factory labor, the value of an untrained child tanked. Hence the education treadmill, hence the general hollowing-out of factory towns and heavy industry. The marginal kid is going to cost more for longer.

Wait wait wait.

Defense startups are “raiding” the automotive industry? We’ve had the opposite problem, where automotive startups are pulling talent out of the defense establishment. I’m not sure that it extends to parts, except in the general sort of 18 month lead times that we’ve had on and off since the pandemic.

The defense startups I’ve seen tend, as always, to go for the off-the-shelf options. Sticking an arduino to the new generation of automotive sensors and so on. Or training models on rented compute, I guess? If you show up with a cheap solution to one of the outstanding issues, some branch of the DoW will be in your corner when it’s time to get it through compliance.

I don’t recognize any of those terms. Zero-something? Negative-something?

Thank you. I saw your other comment about funding a warlord after I’d posted.

What’s special about the American kitchen?

Fertility declines show up before that messaging. 1800s Victorians, American frontier families, all sorts of people in strong economic positions. Status can’t have been it. I would guess the biggest contributor is technological: infant mortality drops and births drop to compensate.

Yes, it’s a popular subject.

Skin and fat attenuate those radio frequencies pretty fast. There’s some literature claiming that the risks are higher for children, with their undeveloped brains thin skulls. At first glance, I’d say it’s cherry-picking. The case for reduced sperm motility has probably not replicated.

Do you actually have any examples? Because that sounds like a weak-ass excuse for using a single number.

Everything you list was implied (or said outright) in fribble’s initial complaint. I don’t know why you’re surprised that a response disagrees.

It’s more like saying Elon Musk doesn’t actually care about space exploration because sometimes he spends money on the Trump campaign.

Are they not?

I expect donations did go up after the gutting. Messaging around them definitely did. I’m not sure how to show it, though.

Asserting that nobody cares because Obama still has money is a pretty damn isolated demand for rigor.

I am reasonably confident that the third world was not getting an influx of smartphones before 2005; slowing growth is obviously possible without them. From his earlier article,

the first plummet transpired from about 1988 to 2005, dropping from 1.8% per year to 1.25%. After a decade’s pause, the downward trend resumed, lately averaging 0.85% per year.

That could be a problem with averaging lots of regions. Of course, it could be the pause which is an artifact. I think a general decline, concealed by regional trends in vaccination or something, is quite possible.

He’s got a more detailed graph in this article which he claims shows a 90s plateau. I’m not sure I see it. I would describe this plot as an overall “downwash” with surges in the early 90s (fall of communism?) and late 00s. That would make the post-08 crash a return to form, right?

Frankly, I’m getting a whiff of motivated reasoning from this guy. He was rightly skeptical of the UN plots which looked like regression-to-the-old-models. That skepticism should probably also apply to models which line up with his sixth-extinction hypothesis.

/images/1782938893573945.webp

I guess it’s possible. Is that cheaper than a passenger boat?

Either way, overstaying a visa would definitely be comprehensible to a Founding Father. I don’t think it’s good evidence that the Constitution has a critical security exploit.

Please remember to avoid sweeping generalizations.

Oh. Anchor babies. I guess I was envisioning something more…coordinated. Mea culpa.

I do take issue with the Post’s excuses for data. Look at those numbers: a nonprofit says 36,000 women in 2012. Chinese officials say 50,000, year unspecified. This Australian professor thinks 100,000, so that’s good enough, I guess.

Meanwhile the actual number of births in the Marianas is around 1,100 a year. If every single one was a birth tourist, you’d still need another 30 Saipans to get in the ballpark. I don’t trust these numbers at all.

But I’d also say they’re beside the point. Saipan’s exploits stem from its organization as a U.S. territory in the 70s. Congress still has the power to amend that relationship. The bigger potential problem is birth tourism in the states proper, which could be resolved by visa policy.

I don’t see this as a real threat.