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The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.

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joined 2022 September 05 17:27:40 UTC

				

User ID: 647

netstack

The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.

10 followers   follows 3 users   joined 2022 September 05 17:27:40 UTC

					

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User ID: 647

The stinger at the beginning of the article, which wasn't quoted, is

It was the summer of 2024, and the cutting-edge robots inside General Dynamics’ sweltering artillery factory near Dallas were catching fire with startling regularity, according to four former workers there.

I’m inclined to agree, with a caveat that nobody at the Army probably expected consequences. So far, they’ve been correct.

Probably true, but not really applicable to this plant. The experimental Turkish machinery seems to have been the sticking point.

A Texas defense contracting operation moving fast and breaking shit? I guess this is pretty relevant to me.

I started your post thinking most of your observations were correct, but the more I read, the more convinced I was that you’ve missed the forest for the trees. I’m going to argue that our MIC has been too disciplined over the last twenty-odd years. What we’re seeing now is whiplash.

But first, a few comments.

non-engineering finance guy…running [the] business

If you find this surprising or disqualifying, you don’t understand corporate structure. No matter who comes up with an idea, at some point, finance has to sign off on this kind of expansion. This is more a matter of pragmatism than regulation: most engineers do not want to spend their time on budgets and accounting. We hire specialists.

Turkish name btw

If you want to suggest that he hired a Turkish contractor out of racial kinship bias, say it. Then put in the work to actually defend it, because this mealy-mouthed aside isn’t enough. I guess the source article does the same thing. But I digress.

no proper oversight or competition

Slashing the red tape, skipping the wait times, greenlighting lenient deals—none of that inspired any competition? No, the Army was authorized to throw money around without a competitive process. There’s the first problem.

[laundry list of industrial fuckups]

Setting aside any journalistic bias (though I do wonder if ProPublica is as credible here as on abortion), these are embarrassing. Inexcusable. People lose their jobs over less. They might well have lost some here; I don’t think we’d hear about it below Gezen’s level.

My conclusion is that much of US industry and especially the US MIC/govt sector is seriously undisciplined.

You’ve got it backwards. Clusterfucks like this factory exist because the MIC has been obsessed with discipline. Since the war in Iraq, we’ve favored low-volume, high-tech “exquisite” solutions with long development cycles. It wasn’t like the Afghans were going to leapfrog us, right? Low-rate production fit our low-intensity conflicts.

Trying to scale that to the levels needed for Ukraine, let alone China, led the government to wildly overcorrect. Letting the Army issue UCAs is a high-variance strategy. Spend too much money and hope that some of it pays off.

ProPublica says it’s still in effect. I agree. Our business development teams get excited about OTAs and follow-on contracts. If we pitched something that could be assembled in a year, no matter how stupid, I suspect we’d see funding. The whole industry is operating with a sort of frenzied growth mindset. Build it and they will come.

the competent facets of US industry are working elsewhere on rocketry, AI, chips, cars, aircraft

Ahahahahahahahahahaa! Every one of these fields is also full of grifters and incompetents. There’s more competition, so sometimes the rentiers get forced out. But GD is an aircraft and tank producer, too. It is vast, it contains multitudes.

So how do we fix it? Arguably, we don’t: this will at some point get us more military production, if not from this assembly line. I think that’s dumb and inefficient, and we have a duty to handle it better. For pure production, that probably means monopoly-busting. Running a high-variance strategy with one competitor is stupid. GD needs to feel like a rival will eat their lunch.

I also agree that there should be serious consequences for this particular incident. Gezen’s possible forced retirement isn’t enough. If nothing else, switching to an AI buzzword startup should have lost them the contract. I have no way of knowing if GD bought the hype, if the government did, or if nobody actually wants AI artillery shells but it’s too expensive to fire them. It sucks.

But in reality everyone pays lawyers a lot of money for abstract legalistic box-ticking/form-filling that yields little justice.

This may be true, but I suspect we’re closer to justice than anarchy. I’m not convinced that there’s some weird hack which only keeps the useful parts of law.

It’s also why I disfavour free-marketism... Genuine patriotism needs little binding or regulation.

I…what? Which is it? Do you want a command economy or not? I get the impression you’re envisioning a sort of Randian nationalism, where the patriots Just Do Things and everybody else recognizes their innate greatness. Kind of like you mentioned in the Afghanistan section, where

Patriotic US generals should’ve leaked the secret reports showing that the war was a complete disaster

Jesus Christ. How would that have helped at all? More importantly, how do you distinguish between the patriotic, the misled, the stupid?

If your theory relies on hindsight, it’s not a workable theory.

Yeah, I originally included a sentence about how a leftist murdered Kirk, and the left was way too fucking enthusiastic about it. I absolutely hate the responses that flooded social media. I will stand by the distinction, but it doesn’t mean I’m happy about it.

My wife is one of the most empathetic people I know. I don’t even think she would shoot someone in self-defense. But she will say, with a worried expression, that she wishes Trump had died at that rally. It’s unbelievable. Ingroup, outgroup, fargroup.

Maybe the web should be purely static again. Web 2.0 was a mistake.

I’m not exactly sure how you envision the blockchain helping, here.

Was Kirk actually that load-bearing? This is one of those bubble things, maybe, but I never thought he was all that influential. Jordan Peterson seemed to have more pull. The big church groups had more sway than anyone. This was in the Midwest.

Bubble or not, I really disagree that “the left, broadly” did either of those things. A leftist murdered Kirk; a random asshole tried to kill Trump. Blaming “the left” is about as solid as hand-wringing about stochastic terrorism. I believe in individual responsibility.

gattsuru post

Oh boy! Time to be disappointed in society, maybe a little stressed out.

legal formalist

I’m not really sure that’s the problem here. Thiessen was the bar to clear. If the Post had booted him, or if Attiah had been obviously more extreme, I expect the arbitrator would have gone the other way. See the rejection of the union’s claim of pretextuality.

Sorry, I’m not trying to be glib.

I think people like the PM recognize that something like this is unworkable, but expect that the benefit of posturing outweighs the costs/risks. Is that “not meaning what they say?” Only if we exclude the middle. There is a continuum between opposing and endorsing a policy, and signaling approval falls somewhere in between endorsement and neutrality.

I also think you captured that sentiment when you said it was an applause light. Talk is cheap, and talking about how one’s government is very sad, totally going to start another investigation, any day now? Business as usual.

But then you dismiss the perfectly good explanation. Why? What makes incompetence more likely than strategy?

I don’t know who that is and, after reading the replies, I am thankful for that fact.

Not quite. War goals have gotten more abstract, but this is a side effect of the underlying cost/benefit analysis.

When most humans were right on the edge of subsistence farming, you could pay for conquest by extracting tribute, taxes, or slaves. As technology got more complex, the value of a conquered peasant’s labor went down, but you still needed raw materials and food.

Now the first world has basically all the unskilled labor and cheap goods it could want. It produces unbelievable amounts of food. Its most successful businesses are three, four, five steps removed from actually manufacturing stuff out of normal, boring materials. So how are you supposed to monetize a conquest?

National security. When everything your country does has a better rate of return than fighting, you only fight to get back to the other stuff. Hence “making the world safe for democracy.” Hence the Cold War. Now it’s counterterrorism and FONOPs. We slogged through the War on Terror because we had a war goal of never letting anybody try that shit again. Wanton destruction didn’t actually bring that any closer to fruition.

So yeah, we’re setting stupid, impractical war goals. All the old-fashioned ones are economic non-starters. What’s left is power projection supporting our other, more valuable activities.

Chill out.

Good God. It was bad enough to suggest that some sorts of outrage only come from people lying about their beliefs. Now you’ve found a group who must be developmentally disabled?

I’m unreasonably annoyed by this, because it looks like you considered the whole alternative answer I’d have given. Signing the petition is an applause light. These guys aren’t expending the mental effort to flesh out a viable plan. They’re showing up to beat their chests and holler at the other team.

But no, they must “lack the imaginative capacity”? Why? What’s wrong with the first answer? You’re watching people play soccer and insisting that their arms must have been crippled.

It’s not like I disagree on the object level! No shit, the petition is stupid, and I’m sure the free-speech norms which got us to this site are better. Ha ha, point and laugh at the Limeys.

You have been warned to stop this sort of complaining. One day ban this time. Given your rather disappointing record in the past, expect that to go up quickly if you keep acting like you own the place.

I recently encountered this not-a-review about Crichton.

The cognitive load of most Micheal Crichton sentences are almost exactly the same. Everything is what it is. It runs through your mind like smooth directly-stated ticker tape. That's why you can read it almost five times faster than Nabokov. It's designed to be read that way. To be clear.

I suspect that the same is true for what I was calling “conservatism.” Tropes, even Boomer or GenX tropes, reduce the narrative friction. We readers get to model Avarasala or Bobbie with minimal cognitive overhead. Very practical, very effective for a thriller, since we want to move from plot point to plot point.

Which reminds me: I hope you’ve read the latest Bay Area House Party.

Book 2 of The Expanse. Probably a third of the way through.

There’s a certain predictability to the side characters, where you can kind of sum them up in one phrase. Distraught biologist father. Traumatized but vengeful marine. Unassuming career bureaucrat.

By taking certain character beats and setting details for granted, it implies what I want to label a conservative worldview. Of course the bureaucrats hold all the real power. Of course they push the authentic men and women, the soldiers and pilots, around like chess pieces, then get surprised when they act out. Of course the unassuming grandma among them is the most effective, and of course she blames her male colleagues for letting testosterone rule their decisions. There’s a single paragraph about how the fertility crisis didn’t survive contact with universal basic income. This is kinda plot relevant but also reveals a lot about the author.

Maybe I’m just calling it conservative because it reminds me of Tom Clancy. People show up, perform their story-function, and leave. Sometimes they’ll expound a bit of background. If they’re heroic, they’ll be demonstrably skilled at their area of expertise, and they’ll probably get to show moral or technical superiority over an outsider. If villainous, they’re played completely differently. Still competent in a scary way, only failing if a protagonist is around.

I can’t exactly say this is a bad thing. I kept rolling my eyes for the first few chapters, but by this point, I’m committed. Axiomatic worldbuilding is good. Leaning on tropes makes the story run smoothly. Above all, the Expanse benefits from the strength of its main cast, who embody the space-opera traditions.

Good fun. 7/10 so far. We’ll see if it holds up.

It’s funny. I’d heard that his other books, especially Iron Council, were absurdly socialist, but I didn’t get that from PSS at all. Class consciousness didn’t seem like it would have helped anybody. The best-laid plans of birds and men never survive contact with cryptids.

You’re telling me that having a low Epstein number isn’t all that exclusive a club?

These files follow the same statistical rules as Scott’s classic post about Atlantis. The central example of “links to Epstein” is somebody who went to his creepy island and spent time with some teenage girls. The more you expand that definition, the more people are going to fit into it, but the less meaningful it gets. Marrying someone who once pitched him a business opportunity is a much wider circle.

I think your last point is right. This is at the intersection of several cultural bubbles, which elevates it from trivial to gossip-worthy. Don’t draw too many conclusions from it, you know?

Standard fantasy. One ubermensch, possibly Chosen by fate or the gods, who will unite the fractured polities and just do things.

I agree that ProPublica falls somewhere between “biased” and “disingenuous,” and I tried not to rely on their testimonials. It is unfortunately difficult to find reporting which doesn’t trace back to those articles.

How would you interpret the Barnica case? Did the elevated risk of sepsis, which would then qualify as life-threatening, itself qualify as life-threatening? Does preventing the infection make the abortion unnecessary? Rov_Scam described it as

If option A means potential prosecution and option B means a possible hike in malpractice insurance premiums, option B wins every time.

Now, I do think it’s reasonable to ask what happened to the potential prosecutions. I wasn’t able to find anything other than Texas v. Rojas, which as you noted has gone quite poorly for the state. The fact that it took nearly 3 years between Dobbs and those charges suggests that either Texas isn’t really willing to go after providers or that illegal abortions are in fact hard to find. This is compatible with a strong chilling effect, but it’s not good evidence for it.

What makes you say that?

Most abortions are performed before 14 weeks. In 2021, there were about 4,000 performed at or after 21 weeks. See table 10 at the end of this report. They tail off fast, too. The number of abortions after the second trimester, let alone right up to birth, has to be really low.

To be clear, I do think abortions past the point of viability are immoral. I do recognize that laws like MA’s will allow more of those. What I’m trying to say is that allowance is unlikely to be used. Later abortions are more traumatic, more dangerous, more expensive. They are already heavily disincentivized at 20 weeks. If you have reason to believe otherwise, please tell me!

I kind of wish I'd dropped it. It tries to come together into something to make the last few hundred pages worth it, but that something is just more misery.

I’ve heard some pretty good things about a hit of heroin.

Which ones do you have in mind?

  • Crain wasn't ambiguous. The law clearly required a recorded ultrasound, and the first wasn't saved, so they went back for a second.
  • Barnica was similar. Since the delayed stillbirth wasn't guaranteed to kill her, they had to wait until the heartbeat stopped.
  • Cox was ambiguous. Nobody involved could figure out if they were going to face prosecution. I'm not even sure if Paxton knew what he'd do, which is why he warned the doctors through Twitter.
  • Ngumezi I hadn't even heard about. She died after being prescribed a miscarriage drug rather than a faster but politically-fraught D&C. Note that the doctor responsible has been disciplined, but still practices.
  • There are apparently others in Ngumezi's situation who haven't received tearful ProPublica coverage. Did I miss something high-profile?

The state has made it clear that anything which looks like an abortion will receive extra scrutiny and political pressure, legal or not. Doctors have responded by shying away from the procedures which are most offensive to lawmakers. This is an obvious chilling effect!

@The_Nybbler will tell you that all of these were unambiguous, that the doctors responsible are immoral cowards, or worse, leftists, and that obviously the state would never make life difficult for an innocent man. I think, in my reasonable judgment, that he's full of shit.