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…unlike the first, which had such a great time over the next 2500 years?
And no, I think I’ve got a decent understanding of the Roman collapse. It really doesn’t line up with a narrative of (social) decadence and tolerance. Centuries of geopolitical pressure and food distribution far outweighed any trends in buttsex.
Agreed.
Well, the auction part sounds pretty psychotic. On the other hand, that’s kind of inherent to contract law. Even marriage contracts generate some insane implications.
Short answer: yes, of course. The slippery slope argument says that violating one principle will cause further violations of that principle. In this case, you have two separate principles which can be violated independently.
Arguing that violating one will make more opportunities to violate the second is a utilitarian approach, not a slippery slope.
Longer answer: I think the NYPost is a trash outlet and I don’t want to slog through their coverage, so I’m going to assume it’s perfectly fair and accurate. Please forgive me if I get the details wrong.
the adoptive men wish their now two year old child had been murdered
No, they don’t. They wish she didn’t exist, which sometimes but not always implies murder. In your model, fulfilling that wish would have required murdering the fetus. In their model, it did not. I can’t stress this distinction enough.
Thank you for not fedposting, by the way.
various slippery slopes have been validated over, and over, and over again
Could you elaborate? From where I’m standing, this incident wasn’t caused by leniency higher up the slope. If Canada executed all its gays instead of letting them adopt surrogates, it wouldn’t have mattered. Straight couples are perfectly capable of violating a second, separate principle about the moral value of the fetus. The same judge would (probably) make the same decision. Conversely, you could win that battle regardless of your principle on homosexuality. The two are not on the same slope.
have your feelings on the matter changed?
I guess so? I gained political awareness in the pre-Obergefell era, and viewed the situation with a typical teenage self-assurance. The outgroup were obviously picking on gays because they felt threatened, maybe closeted, right? But they were already losing out, and it was firmly not my problem.
Now I’ve seen the culture wars metastasize, polarize, accelerate the discovery of new and exciting ingroups and outgroups. I think that attacking homosexuality has gotten more politically useful even as Americans have, as individuals, gotten more tolerant. So I suppose I’ve become more inclined to argue (and vote) for gay rights.
If you say so.
Do you hold the same skepticism for every other movement, or is it just the ones you hate?
Walls, mostly. Sometimes floors or ceilings. Like Splatoon!
It's got turrets you can disable by shooting. There's a boss and everything.
Claw of the Conciliator. Really impressive in a way I find hard to explain.
- It’s very easy to inhabit Severian’s head right up until he does something unhinged. “Oh, right. Raised by the torturer’s guild. Has never had a normal conversation with a woman in his life.”
- Worldbuilding by implication. Characters assume familiarity with their world. Vocabulary is archaic or exotic, but consistently so: the author isn’t reaching for his thesaurus, that’s just what people call it.
- Excellent portrayal of the surreal.
It’s like…I’ve been reading Brando-Sando-styled mechanistic fantasy for long enough that it’s a surprise when characters are out of their depth with regards to the fantastical elements. When Dalinar sees a god you know he’ll try and negotiate, or at least to hit it with a sword. Okay, it’s not fair to pin this on munchkin fantasy; go back to Tolkien and characters only acknowledge the sublime in order to compare it to the mundane. Hospitality like no other. A face more beautiful than any in Middle-Earth. Extraordinary versions of normal things.
Wolfe’s Urth is studded with total out-of-context experiences. Characters see things and have no idea how to fit them into their paradigm. Or worse, they know exactly how they fit in, and it’s not flattering. So the reader will get a confused, alarmed description and remain unsure if this is business as usual or something downright eldritch. Usually it’s the latter.
Makes for a damn good reading experience.
That’s exactly why.
A long time ago, one of our users wrote about a sneer-state-debate theory of politics. The idea was that high-level bureaucrats are pretty good at debating. That works against other bureaucrats and against their natural prey, the idealists. But it leaves them completely unprepared for a sufficiently charismatic asshole. Somebody who can just show up, ignore the home turf, and shove that nerd in a locker.
This is how Trump wiped the Republican field and eventually Hillary. In doing so, he basically realigned the party under his “sneer” strategy. It didn’t matter if they had a working plan so long as the other guy’s plan looked worse.
The Democrats absolutely walked into it, too. First they tried debating Trump on his policies. Loser move. Then they experimented with sneering, which was never particularly convincing. They didn’t have the charisma, and Trump had a serious first-mover advantage, anyway.
So what actually works against a “sneer” strategy? AshLael suggested it was back to the idealists. Run somebody with a winning smile who can just “state” a simple position. It doesn’t have to be well-considered; the other guy is never going to call you on it.
I always thought this was plausible. Maybe that was just a sense that Obama would have wiped the floor with Trump, but I felt like a positive vision would preempt a lot of Trump’s support. Frame him as the grumpy old fossil instead of the dynamic one.
But then the Democrats shambled over to Biden. If there was a central vision for 2020, it was “anything but Trump.” COVID made that extra-appealing, winning exactly one election. By the time Trump got back from Butler, it was completely out of gas.
Thing is, Trump will be out of the picture in ‘28. He has no obvious successor, but there is a bumper crop of populists and pundits who want to sneer their way into politics. I think Democrats could clean house if they dug up someone with enough style to play the “state” card. Ditch the baggage, pretend it’s not about Trump. Campaign on single-payer healthcare or UBI. Something else with a one-line explanation. Take no questions on the details.
Each day I find it slightly less likely that they’ll manage it.
no matter what they say
I chose “say” in hopes of avoiding this exact conversation. What people say and do are not, in fact, the same thing.
But I suppose that was foolish of me. If I claim Sailer’s audience is wrong about Democrats, I’m basically signing up to defend anything Democrats have done since LBJ. I think this is a dirty motte and bailey, but one that sees a lot of use, so I ought to be more explicit.
- Affirmative action is not (currently!) a spoils system because expanding it is outside the Overton window. It’s a decent candidate, though, and sort of worked as one historically.
- Filling leadership roles by racial profiling is a spoils system and an embarrassment.
- Minority-majority districts could be spoils, except packing and cracking are also in play, so they show up no matter who controls the legislature. See Texas for example.
The motte is that Democrats absolutely do things which implement or at least hint at a racial spoils system. This is obviously true.
The bailey comes when using those things as evidence for a specific model of the Democratic Party, one where the minorities are all ganging up to shake down white Americans. This is senseless and hyperbolic. It assumes away the prospect of white people choosing to benefit non-whites, because that’s how Sailer thinks.
You’re suggesting that the far left, i.e. actual Communists, is too individualistic?
And that Christians are more collectivist not because of any particular commandment or selection effect, but because they have a particular conception of their kinship with Christ.
I think you’re overselling it in much the same way as Protestants used to oversell Catholic obeisance to the Pope.
I was originally tongue in cheek, but after thinking about it, I stand by my claim.
First, it’s a first-person game where you shoot; how can it not be a shooter?
Second, it iterated on the physics puzzles and environmental advantages of HL by making them the focus of the game.
Third, it continued to prioritize playable story over cutscenes, and took the PA system to another level.
Portal?
rrazyn
Donny Jones makes a guest appearance.
I’ve occasionally seen a horseshoe desk, though much more rarely than a “bank teller” setup or just a single desk.
I concur that any of these desk types are almost always staffed by women, and that those women are between 20 and 60. You know, like most American workers.
None of the rest fits my experience. It’s like you’re sending a message from an alternate dimension, maybe the same place from which Ben Shapiro pulled his fiction.
Okay, hold on. I have a cousin who fit a number of those checkboxes, and she totally worked healthcare support up in the Midwest. No word on her desk style. I think she’s moved on to education now that her kid is in school?
Uh, I don’t think I said such.
Botond described Sailer’s model as
the Democrats’ best chance of winning the presidency is by fielding as a candidate an older African American man with a military background who’s from a working class or lower-middle class background and is center-left.
I think this is wrong, and that more or less none of those categories matter if the guy runs on vibes. Democrats have awful, cringe-inducing vibes. They need to present an aura of charismatic competency to contrast with the Trump campaign. No, I don’t have much confidence that will happen.
But I guess I think claims of racialist spoils are overstated, too. Shit’s still politically toxic.
I’ll take that bet.
I say this as someone with a very low opinion of the current chain of command; a ceasefire is politically valuable at the moment, and our President (and SecDef) are exactly the kind of people who might apply pressure to keep it quiet.
The odds just favor a legitimate crash.
Don’t forget Argentina!
In all seriousness, listing incidents is just begging for a Texas sharpshooter to come and draw you a bullseye. All the usual SSC pieces about selection bias apply. Batshit insane stuff does happen occasionally. If you turn up the number of opportunities by, say, maintaining the world’s largest navy and two largest air forces, then sending them across the planet to run combat missions, you will generate more batshit insane incidents. Drawing a line through all these incidents will tell you more about the person drawing the line than about the base rate!
If he thinks Steve Sailer is offering a realistic model of the Democratic Party, he probably didn’t understand working-class politics anyway.
Sailer plays to his audience, which is very much inclined to frame everything as racialist spoils systems. He’s going to ascribe that to the Democrats no matter what they say.
Both of which sound more “math rock” to me.
Wait, Freddie thinks it’s a screwjob?
Revising my estimates down a few points.
I feel like I’ve fallen into bizarro world. People are bending over backwards to defend this guy, and it’s not even our usual mysogynists.
Huh. I think the “found God” strategy would actually work, since his main appeal was always to bring in conservatives.
Not that I expect him to take it.
Uh…me?
I think conscious choices are one of the main dividers between us and other animals. If you’ve seen a feral cat colony, you’ve seen the unfettered id.
how many posts have we had on here discussing how women put men through shit tests?
I think most of those posts fall somewhere between uncharitable and unhinged. I was under the impression you usually thought the same, which is why I was surprised.
Again, I don’t disagree with your assessment of the credibility.
Judge Judy ran from 1996 to 2021. I’m sure a lot of people approve of her…sass, or whatever. Does that qualify her as an inspiring hero?
I dunno, I’m sure someone would say it. But there’s definitely more than one kind of celebrity, and I didn’t realize Bourdain had that much admiration.
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Scott was living two blocks from downtown Hiroshima and asking why everybody got so nervous about nuclear weapons.
On the other hand, like 5 comments upthread, @ArjinFerman is telling us that the AIDS crisis was oversold. (I really wanted to gloss his complaint as “fake and gay,” but figured that could be mistaken for mockery). There’s clearly some sense where he’s correct, and HIV will see use as a political lever long after everyone who knew a victim is also dead.
I’m not sure how to square this other than a rather uncomfortable model: the amount of suffering around us at all times is literally inconceivable, but your brain works really hard to filter it out. Turn off too many of those filters and you end up going mad and/or effective altruist.
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