domain:nfinf.substack.com
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
2m ago
We're not talking about checking anything off, we're talking about a number of hours reported.
You are of course welcome to reject reality and substitute your own, but it's a sign of epistemic closure when you don't update at all in the face of evidence.
CryptoWitch
Live From New Vegas
2m ago
In the spirit of bringing life into the thread, I thought I’d share something a little different.
Dozens of stars show signs of hosting advanced alien civilizations
Two surveys of millions of stars in our galaxy have revealed mysterious spikes in infrared heat coming from dozens of them.
A summary won’t do it justice, and I encourage anyone interested to read the linked article; it’s not long. In short, though, researchers checked out approximately 5 million stars (in our galaxy—close enough to look well at and potentially one day visit) for anomalous ratios of infrared heat to light. The idea here is that if a star is giving off a lot of light that is being captured, it will heat whatever is doing the capturing up significantly. This is suggested to be possibly due to either unusual debris fields around these stars, which would be unexpected due to their age (most planetary collisions happening early on in a solar system’s lifetime, and these stars being older)… Or due to large amounts of sun-orbiting satellites soaking up solar power, a Dyson swarm. Our exoplanet imaging is still very much in its infancy, and we have already discovered planets that seem to bear biosignatures. The latter explanation is plausible, at least.
This is pretty far from standard culture-war fare, but I suspect that there are enough rationalists and futurists here to find it interesting. There are also a few potential links:
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- What does the future of our society look in a universe where life is entropically favorable? That is to say, what if life is not rare, and instead happens consistently whenever the right conditions are present for long enough?
This implies that there is either a way through the theorized AI apocalypse, or perhaps that silicon-based life continues growing after taking over from carbon-based life (the “biological boot loader” thesis). While I’m rather attached to my carbon-based existence, it’s at least heartening that in this scenario something is still happening after AI takes over; the spark of life hasn’t left the universe. Unless all that power is going to making paperclips, I suppose.
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- What sort of societal organization is optimal for a galaxy in which we can expect to interact with numerous alien civilizations? We have (thankfully) yet to encounter grabby aliens, but the game theory seems logical; in an environment where there are limited resources and an ever-expanding population, conflict is inevitable (by historical earth standards).
Does it make sense to enforce population control on a cosmic scale, discouraging humans from expanding to other stars to avoid conflict? Could the “dark forest” hypothesis make sense, where offense is favored over defense and civilizations hide as much as possible?
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- If we were to travel to other stars in the distant future, would the expected travel times result in human speciation, or such a long remove that cultural exchange and even biological exchange is kept to a minimum? Or is there an “optimal human”, which genetic engineering and biotech could potentially bring us towards as a local maximum?
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- Is this all bullshit, and are we alone in the universe, forevermore?
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- Does anyone have any thoughts on the spate of propellantless propulsion efforts currently being made? Somewhat like perpetual motion machines, or room temperature superconductors, or fusion… This is a topic that has very high expected returns, and thus a high expected gain in fame or financing from lying about experimental results. But I do note that fusion seems to be moving forward; while LK-99 didn’t pan out, there are still groups working on things inspired by it, and it seems like lessons learned are leading to next generation superconductors. My point here is that if the laws of physics allow it, we seem likely to eventually create it… And we are yet to discover a Theory of Everything, so who’s to say whether something like propellantless propulsion is possible?
Mods, I apologize in advance if this is insufficiently culture-war adjacent to deserve posting here. I didn’t think it worthy of its own thread, and feel like it’s perhaps healthy for the Motte to have some fresh topics as well. I’m a devoted lurker and thought I should do my part.
Edit- My list got butchered. Trying to fix it, but it seems the method I chose of writing multiple paragraphs after a question is disfavored.
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
4m ago
You are missing out on the fact that nobody will know if you don't return the wallet in Japan. Japan is even more urbanized than the US (90%+). Most people live in huge cities where they are just as atomized as any rich low trust society. That's why old people die in their apartments and are not discovered until the stink of their decomposing bodies makes them known.
As for NEETs, until 2004 the US had higher prime age labor force participation rate than Japan. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.ACTI.ZS?locations=JP-US
I guess Japan invented social shaming for NEETs 20 years ago?
Botond173
6m ago
The normal sedan can accommodate two car seats at the back, but not three (I remember reading a surprisingly informative post about this whole issue on the old subreddit). Also, two double-bed rooms are no longer sufficient during a family vacation with three children instead of two. So I'd argue the big change is from two to three in terms of effect on the whole family.
Skulldrinker
8m ago
I think that most men who engage in progressive activist politics ultimately do it to simp to women. Or just to fit in with their social circle which includes activist women, to be less uncharitable.
I base this on a guy who reconfigured his entire personality to be a gay black communist in 2017, because that was maximally appealing to college-educated white women. Even changed his Tinder bio to "Queer."
Skulldrinker
14m ago
Agree, I think this is less to do with misplaced maternal feelings and more to do with fads and trends and following them.
aqouta
14m ago
Worst case, if we accept that males are likely to make more money over their lifetime than females, there's a bias towards having male children.
Could have some of the daughter's share of income from her offspring flow to her mother. Should be some mathematical way to make this work out.
It certainly places the children in a situation where they may decide to earn less salary since some portion of it is being taken away from them with no promise of return.
If this were the case it'd already apply to social security. And, frankly, I would be surprised if a large number of men would be that resentful of a formalized way to discharge their financial obligations to their parents. I'm reminded of Scott on how pledging to give 10% actually resolved a lot of his anxiety of whether he's doing enough.
IGI-111
God was a dream of good government.
14m ago
It would be really nice if we could figure out it was all because of something like leaded gasoline or cigarette smoke and keep on.
It being caused by a pollutant could definitely square with the fact the effect diffuses with population density, but then again everything does that.
But that seems unlikely given how widespread the problem is.
non_radical_centrist
16m ago
I'd agree to all that.
Gaashk
17m ago
Three to four can be bigger than two to three, because that's when you have to buy a mini van, at least. Or one of those huge extra row SUVs, but it's pretty difficult to access kids in the back row to help with buckles and whatnot.
Gaashk
21m ago
on a slightly related note, I've heard stories from mothers where the doctors basically decided to do a cesarean because the labor was taking too long and the doctor didn't want to stick around.
Yeah, my state has gone back to a midwives by default, call a doctor if necessary protocol, even in the hospitals, because of that kind of thing.
The cutesy Kansai goofball overdub is so incongruous with your appearance (and my mental image of your character) that the effect is really quite strange. Was this a common persona for video ads in Japan at the time or should I parse this as a light instance of minstrelry (as in this is how they figured a middle-aged Westerner would act)?
To what extent do you think the few men who post about it are doing so for the approval of those women as opposed to out of any genuine sentiment?
I find young men gain status from having somewhat, but not overly disagreeable opinions. The goldilocks zone is on the fringes of the overton window; you'll get shunned for throwing a roman salute, but merely tut-tutted and quietly respected for shrugging off the dotted-i's and crossed-t's of political correctness.
Doubtless some young men will go crying and waving every bloody progressive-cause shirt to simp, but they are making a mistake.
IGI-111
God was a dream of good government.
29m ago
Since I'm being (mis)quoted, I'd like to register the fact that unlike you seem to be implying, I also think feminism (and the sexual revolution in general) is a symptom and not a cause.
Placing the blame on modernity is more accurate. Though I see it as more of a general pattern human societies go through than anything unique to our era. Birth control, sexual liberation and population collapse have all happened before the modern era multiple times. Even arguably on a global scale.
Yes on both counts. The sexual revolution and the free love movement promoted the idea that casual sex should be consequence-free (which that generation of Westerners fully internalised, for the most part) - then technological developments caused social atomisation which actually removed most of the indirect social consequences for bad behaviour among "cads" and "rakes".
It's possible to imagine an alternate history where we had the same technological developments in the twentieth- and twenty-first centuries that we had, but not preceded by the dramatic social liberalisation of the sexual revolution. In this counterfactual world, social atomisation still happens, but sexual misconduct (e.g. impregnating a girl and running off on her) remains so aggressively stigmatised that most men refrain from it of their own accord. What I'm describing actually sounds fairly similar to modern Japan and Korea, in which less than 10% of live births are out of wedlock, as opposed to the West in which they're 30% at the absolute minimum (granted, more abortions are carried out in South Korea than in the US or UK, so it's not quite as rosy as I'm making it out to be).
Recursive_Enlightenment
33m ago
I've come across the term "Longhouse" a lot. Could someone please explain it to me in a straightforward way.
There are other things important than just GDP. But even from that perspective, it is better from a non short-term point of view for women to have children and careers and sacrifice the later to an extend for the first. Society will be richer and not poorer in that case, as there won't be declining number of human capital. This applies especially in some of the richer countries with high human capital level of population. For an individual company of course it doesn't benefit them for their female workers to work less, so there might be a certain tragedy of the commons.
Actually women can live long enough that we can easily get both children and economic productivity from them, even if children are the bigger priority. I don't see what is wrong with mothers spending some more time at home while their children are younger. The cost vs benefit is in favor of sacrificing some career years. There are in fact women who do what I suggest already, just less than they existed, in part due to the relative decline of male wages. A minimum painless thing to be done that wouldn't be sufficient to reverse things but is a start should be to stop any pro female AA policies.
Additionally, it isn't as if other lifestyle aspects aren't eating time spend raising children. Trying to promote childbirth as a current issue, in a hardcore enough manner and focusing on influencing cultural preferences would probably work. And it is better alternative than doing nothing. This is something that is going to result in supporting projects and individuals and groups that are pro-natalist and individuals and benefiting them over those opposing it and then selling it as a lifestyle. Not everyone but plenty of people, especially women seem to be able to get onboard with projects promoted aggressively and consistently enough by the goverment and media and various NGOs. Why not use such forces to promote something actually good for a change?
Tanista
35m ago
Or they're sticking their head out because they're failures (or on the verge).
If the prophesied end of men ever comes, the leaders will have to maintain a small population of autists and disagreeable assholes as a final sanity check against good ideas. Like the oracles of yore.
Astranagant
39m ago
To what extent do you think the few men who post about it are doing so for the approval of those women as opposed to out of any genuine sentiment?
Aransentin
p ≥ 0.05 zombie
40m ago
Regarding the evidence standards in the first point - how is this not constantly abused by police?
If a policeman commits a crime when looking for evidence he'll potentially be charged with misconduct (in addition to whatever else he did, like battery or burglary). A particularly egregious case from the top of my head was this one where the policeman was later convicted, fined, and fired.
the wholesale trade of fundamental liberty.
I think the idea here is that if the government ignores the constitution, then any law you have to address it can just be ignored as well and it's up to the citizens to fix it by whatever means are necessary. The important thing here is if this actually works, or in practice results in constant low-level constitutional violations that people ignore; personally I don't think so. I helps a bit that the Swedish constitution isn't as hairy as the American one – the exception being freedom of expression where boundaries can be unclear / debated, which is indeed the parts that do have legal systems in place to decide that.
(Another fun legal thing I forgot to mention is that the king (or regent) is immune from prosecution. This question comes up from time to time as the king pretty frequently gets caught speeding and potentially drunk driving, but the police always has to just let him go.)
faceh
42m ago
Worst case, if we accept that males are likely to make more money over their lifetime than females, there's a bias towards having male children.
It certainly places the children in a situation where they may decide to earn less salary since some portion of it is being taken away from them with no promise of return.
coffee_enjoyer
☕️
42m ago
If you were to write your ideal daily/morning mindset into a prayer, what would it be? (ie, putting to words the important unconscious cognition.) Were you to devise one daily prayer for all of humanity, what would it be?
Tanista
44m ago
This is the exact person that came to mind.
These Crossfire shows seem to lean towards the female leftist in general (The Hill show Ball used to be on is now dominated by a Bernie Bro with a browbeaten libertarian in a corner) , but it's been incredibly noticeable how utterly emotional Ball is on this and how that impacts the show.
It makes it hard for anything to be discussed because the co-host is not enough of an asshole to really push it. Ironically, this is why progressives used to complain about "white women's tears" ; it stops everything.
Her equally leftist spouse Kyle Kulinski seem to share the exact same (bad imo) opinions without the unseemly weeping.
Any updates?
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