FeepingCreature
No bio...
User ID: 311
FeepingCreature
11mo ago
Same here as the other commenter: Ronald Reagan, Robert Fico, Roosevelt, Gerald Ford, the Pope, Bob Marley, Truman, Seward, Reagan, President Reagan.
Do you still get Trump if you try it now?
FeepingCreature
13d ago
I mean, if genes/IQ is real, it's probably small but compounding, a factor on a thousand stacked decisions, like a random walk biased upward or downward, second or even third order. In that case, most causes of bad things happening in their life would seem to be largely unrelated to IQ, since every step has a better causative explanation than IQ, but IQ would still be the determinant of where the chain ended up. (Admittedly, that's very hard to falsify.)
FeepingCreature
1mo ago
Thus all progress depends on the incompetent politician. ... Hang on.
FeepingCreature
6mo ago
It's not a tell. For instance, it's so common in, say, German, that even German Wikipedia does it. "The Ukraine is a state..."
FeepingCreature
7mo ago
I just had this comment in the "The Motte needs your help" report queue. Obviously it's in the wrong spot, but also I can't flag it as "this needs a moderator to move it maybe" because the report queue doesn't show context, and on its own this is a perfectly normal comment. Bit of a weakness, idk.
FeepingCreature
8mo ago
I mean, that kind of sounds like you're saying it's provably not a 1:1 simulation of a human brain.
What you're describing is measurable evidence of new physics. Every physicist in the world would want to buy you a beer.
FeepingCreature
8mo ago
Compromise: Move MLK day to October and put the election on it. I'm sure the Reverend would be fine with it. Republicans are happy because it doesn't create a new holiday and also it reduces the stature given to a black guy, Democrats are happy because black people and minorities get time off to vote and also it ties MLK even more tightly into the civic mythos, plus they can put pictures of him up in the voting room.
FeepingCreature
8mo ago
A modified BIOS would cause the OS to reject the boot attempt
I don't know how the security architecture works in detail, but that really seems like the sort of thing a modified BIOS could work around with a strategic byte write to a known memory address. It's ~impossible to defend yourself against an attacker running on a higher ring than you.
FeepingCreature
8mo ago
This just seems 1:1 equivalent to a citation.
FeepingCreature
11mo ago
I disagree with this - the entire reason LessWrong got as big as it got was that Eliezer very much "brought the fire" in the name of advocating for his vision of correct thought. I don't think you can read, say, the Zombies sequence and argue it's cold and passionless.
"What does the god-damned collapse postulate have to do for physicists to reject it? Kill a god-damned puppy?"
I upvoted the parent because I think it's entirely in keeping with that rhetorical lineage.
FeepingCreature
1mo ago
Small correction, the term "scissor statement" was coined by Scott Alexander in his 2018 short story Sort By Controversial.
FeepingCreature
2mo ago
I think that anyone who wants to can have a 3D printer at home. Inasmuch as "we'll all have 3D printers at home" has failed, it has failed due to lack of interest, not lack of technological development.
It's a tech bubble from a market size perspective, not a technology perspective.
FeepingCreature
2mo ago
I read it as more like, sophistry may be employed against inconsequential or subjective matters like religion freely, as there's no harm to it; but if you try to argue with reality, reality is gonna win.
FeepingCreature
3mo ago
That's a good metric!
FeepingCreature
3mo ago
But it does still provide a non-tariff trade barrier (i.e. is a protectionist policy) against potentially more competitive imports.
I mean, I just feel like... every regulation, including fraud and food safety, is a protectionist policy against potentially more competitive imports, isn't it? If you have too much arsenic in the imported orange juice or whatever, then if the customer would usually not notice this immediately and correct course, then the restriction on selling the orange juice is, from a pure market perspective, a trade barrier against competition. I think at some line, and arguably "champagne from Australia" is across that line, you have to say "no, fraud is not legitimate competition actually."
FeepingCreature
5mo ago
Personally speaking I don't think about it because I believe AI kills us first.
FeepingCreature
8mo ago
I'd say do at least 3.5 Sonnet and whichever model of o1 is out by then. Sonnet is the best "classical" code llm (imo!), though you may have to prompt it pretty hard to get it to try a oneshot. But o1 is designed for oneshots and is the only one that may be a paradigm shift in ai design. It's been worse than sonnet at some tasks, but this may play to its strengths. Also if adding a Python interpreter, implore the models to add timeouts. :)
FeepingCreature
8mo ago
I think it's vibe-based. Culture doesn't have enough room for more than one bit, or more than one direction on the lever. Because trans is left and anti-trans is right, moving the lever towards trans moves it in a leftist direction (pro women), and moving the lever against trans moves it in a rightist direction (against child grooming).
From that perspective, "I am against trans participation in women's sports but for 18+ transition and cautiously in favor of puberty blockers given parental approval or a three month waiting period or idk" would simply have too many bits; no serious politician would dedicate that much cultural mindspace to the topic. "Against trans to protect women's sports" is already relatively nuanced. (Yes, the mind weeps, but that's how it is.)
FeepingCreature
8mo ago
There has been a lot written about hallucination because some people want chatbots to be worse than they are. With experience you can generally tell when you are asking a question that a LLM will hallucinate about.
FeepingCreature
9mo ago
Also, note how smoothly criticism of Israel has become criticism of Jews instead.
In every other situation that'd be true, but saying "Israel is a country of Jews" is hardly antisemitism, more tautology.
FeepingCreature
11mo ago
I mean, we do think of it that way now. During the regime, aiui Germans mostly tried pretty hard to not think about it at all.
FeepingCreature
2mo ago
I genuinely don't understand how you can say it's plausible to happen at all, but sci-fi nonsense to happen likely. By and large probability is in the mind, and "sci-fi" is usually a claim about the reality part of a belief rather than the opinion. It'd be like saying "It's possible that it happens soon, but it's raving sci-fi nonsense for you to be worried about it."
FeepingCreature
6mo ago
FeepingCreature
8mo ago
Well sure, but it's still wrong to say that baptists are pro-smuggling.
Okay yes but they don't actually visit us. Even if this is all true, the people seeing demons in this worldline are still crazy.
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