Lizzardspawn
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User ID: 594
Lizzardspawn
2hr ago
Years ago, I'd have said NASA knows the risk models, and they wouldn't send astronauts on a P(death)=0.1 mission.
Interesting tidbit - an independent consultant estimated the chances of the shuttle blowing up to 1-2/100 . They lost 2 vehicles in 135 flights. He was quite right on the money.
Lizzardspawn
13hr ago
If we go full Challenger Appendix F - what are the real odds of something going sideways during the mission? Polymarket prices that at 12% at the moment, but that is absurdly high.
Lizzardspawn
17hr ago
Challenger happened due to cultural rot. For me DEI has also a smell of cultural rot.
Lizzardspawn
17hr ago
Even if they are not - organizational culture matters a great deal for outcomes. Does it matter if the pressure for you to greenlight something comes because your boss has overly optimistic schedule or because you are afraid she will call you anti black racist?
Nasa has a history of cultural drift leading to disasters. And the track record of embracing DEI is spotty at best.
Do you think that there is no way those two could interact in such a way that to lead to a failed mission?
Lizzardspawn
19hr ago
Challenger astronauts were also competent.
Deliberate diversity is organizational rot. Can you think of examples of organizations that become better after dei push?
Lizzardspawn
19hr ago
It is just scary how infested the social networks are with AI atm. There is a pattern I notice - something totally unrelated get blown on reddit, then it is astroturfed on my national segment of the reddit, then appears on promoted facebook accounts, written in the most enraging way possible. It is so deep in the uncanny valley - that no chance humans are involved even as editors.
Lizzardspawn
20hr ago
Moltbook is ... reddit for AI agents. What is your favorite thing about it? Mine is that the /gonewild /pics and /worldnews sections are empty as of now.
Lizzardspawn
20hr ago
The crew is diverse. The backup crew is equally diverse. That increases the chances of NASA pulling off a Challenger substantially in my book. The organizations that care about diversity seems to underperform in execution of their core mission.
Yes the left and environmentalists hate it
Why? For me peaceful space exploration is the least controversial thing - the resources it consumes are negligible, no pollution, huge moral lifter.
We need to explore space. We need to do more stuff in space. And the scientific bang for buck is extraordinary.
Lizzardspawn
1d ago
That leaves mostly autocrats looking to suppress civilian unrest, which is morally abhorrent and also not a huge market.
Oh come on - this is what near IR lasers with eye tracking are - can be cobbled in a week.
Lizzardspawn
1d ago
Right now the bom for a sniper style turret is quite cheap. You take couple of 22cal to .50 and the rest is core xy. And combination of AI + classical algorithms could make the governing software both capable and able to fit into modest hardware. Throw couple of sensors for the wind and rain and you should be able to throw a bullet quite far away with nice precision. The west was moving in direction to have dumb guns and smart munitions. I think that the opposite approach is better.
Lizzardspawn
2d ago
If I had 1m$ I wouldn't bother with investing in markets. Way too many good ideas to pursue in the military industrial complex that will pay off handsomely.
Lizzardspawn
4d ago
Closest Match: Progressivism
And that kids is the reason you should view those kinds of tests as long jokes with lame punchlines.
Lizzardspawn
5d ago
If things so really out of hand we could be looking at the destruction of vast parts of the world industrial system, not just in Taiwan, but also in China, plus the global disruption of sea trade. They're called World Wars for a reason!
Only if USA goes to war over Taiwan, for which the case is weak. Look - the whole of indochina with india to boot didn't cost the US blood spilled in Vietnam. And 60 k casualties is optimistic in a war near the shores of China.
Lizzardspawn
6d ago
There is no invasion that will cause problems. I don't know why everybody has drunk the Kool aid that somehow lack of Taiwan semiconductors is a death blow. Even if we get a couple of nodes back we will be at what - 2016 production nodes. The horror.
Lizzardspawn
6d ago
If Xi surrounds himself only with yes men, chances of successful invasion go down dramatically. Putin did the same - and it took three years of war for Russia to get their shit semi together.
Lizzardspawn
7d ago
In reality, it's just garden-variety TDS.
Okay let's be honest - having a mild case of TDS now is totally justified without the D. Trump is giving an already shambling world order a serious push. I enjoy it and like it. But for people that think of "to live in interesting times" as a curse - it is stressful moment. And we know where they are located.
I am looking at reddit now - the only thing saving Trump now is how cringe /r/pics is in trying to martyr the guy.
Lizzardspawn
8d ago
Getting the bum out of your park means that the bum will move to someone else's park. Kicking the can is the reason why we are in this mess. If there were death squads killing them there would be no bums, if there were mental institutions working - there would be no bums, if there was better safety network there would be no bums, if there were plentiful cheap and affordable housing there would be no bums, if there were some form of rehabilitation and reintegration programs there would be no bums. If anyone was willing or capable of taking the full measures anywhere on the compassion/cruelty spectrum there would be no bums. The bums are failed because everyone is taking the half measures - enough to get them out of their park and their sight.
Oh - and in harsh conditions when someone is in what in my country is known as helpless condition - you go and check on them. Because next time it may be you, and you probably wouldn't want your life to depend on whether the single person passing by you can do the heuristic that you are not a bum, but upstanding citizen right while in severe snowstorm.
Lizzardspawn
9d ago
Everyone is brave on reddit.
Lizzardspawn
9d ago
Couple of thoughts:
- If Trump is going to fulfill the left's dictatorship fantasies - better do the coup soon. After the midterm he will be the lamest duck that ever quacked. Holding to any shreds of power will be miracle even by his standards.
- Do you think that body cameras will be turned off or exonerating?
- The second Trump is way way more outrageous than the first one. And people mostly shrug. This is what happens when you are 10 years with emotional afterburner on.
- I wonder how the things will go down now when there are real consequences to larping or being the resistance - will it put more people on the streets or will it change the calculus?
Lizzardspawn
10d ago
I was all the time on Light side. I just have soft spot for brave, competent women.
Lizzardspawn
10d ago
Misora Naomi (undercover): I'm Maki Shouko (間木照子). It's written with the kanji for aida* (space) (間), moku (wood) (木) from jiyumoku, the te (照) from terasu (reflection), and ko (子) from kodomo (child).
Ugh... This is up there with Mufasa's death in animation scenes that really get me.
Lizzardspawn
12d ago
Safe bet that trump will be gone. The bet that the next democratic administration will care about what europeans think about them like Obama is anything but safe. Whether MAGA wins or loses - Europe has lost USA respect. And it will show no matter who is in the white house.
Lizzardspawn
12d ago
I think this is just a case of writing that is legally on the weak side for the concepts discussed and not subtle manipulation that if she didn't physically touched him with the car, the shooting was unjustified.
Lizzardspawn
13d ago
nearly universal among humans moral principle (no taking someone else's exhaustible goods)
Please prove near universality. Because every angle you look at a history - it is taking some else's exhaustible goods.
And it is off until March.
https://www.nasa.gov/blogs/missions/2026/02/03/nasa-conducts-artemis-ii-fuel-test-eyes-march-for-launch-opportunity/
Anyway ... if those kind of problems crop up so late in development - the question what exactly is lurking under the surface ready to bite the crew in the ass is relevant.
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