Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
Hello back frens
User ID: 2022
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
17d ago
logos means 'word'
And "Stimme" means voice, and "Pravda" means truth, and "Rta" mean order, and yet their derived terms overlap strongly with its and each other. In this case the concepts, if not the words, seem to be by shared descent, but I wouldnt be surprised if the chinese have something like it as well.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
19d ago
Have you ever actually gone in, and lost the whole budget quickly? I can understand that the experience of winning might override the knowledge of -EV, but thats definitionally not something that can happen most of the time.
Im especially wondering about the olde times when there was no house and its all peer-to-peer betting, where presumably the others want to stop betting as you want to keep going.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
19d ago
Do you mean that "normal" tomboys are autoandrophiles?
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
19d ago
At least where I live, the alcohol thing is stable without any real legislation (beyond the age limit). You can buy it at the supermarket and almost all restaurants, I would guess you can order it over delivery services too. But alcohol consumption around 30% higher than the US, and statistic on alcoholism... vary wildly in absolute levels but generally the US seems to be higher in most comparisons.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
20d ago
I am guessing (but this is only a guess ) that your actual preferred solution would be something like disenfranchising Jews, denying them the right to vote or own property in non-Jewish lands, and shipping them all off to Madagascar
That seems unlikely to me. SS presumably doesnt believe in magic soil, and so would have no reason to think that it makes a difference long term whether theyre shipped to Israel or Madagascar.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
23d ago
Whats the "ussri" name about btw?
He stuck to a regime and has a beard, which, if not quite Dwarkesh Patel standards, is eminently respectable.
As far as I know, beard minoxidil doesnt need to be kept up. Androgenic hair is easy to get and usually sticks around.
But this only holds if all the numbers are accurate and independent
I dont think Bayes theorem requires its numbers to be independent (whatever it would mean for a conditional to be independent of its condition).
It's no surprise I didn't think of this, since my anecdotal evidence is that there's no shortage of ungracefully balding Indian uncles both at home and abroad. But the numbers don't lie here.
It might be quite heterogenous within India, too.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
1mo ago
And the reason why anyone treats that credit as valuable is because we're also simultaneously in debt to the issuer (we owe abstract value to the government in tax payments in this case).
The problem is that the particular nature of this debt to the issuer is a free variable, so a thing defined from it is a function rather than an object. "Regular" debt is like this in the sense the the government can technically just decide to default, or print its exact obligations which is basically the same, but there is a well-defined understanding of what normally happens to debt that there isnt so much with money, and the bit that there is changes based on what monetary theory the state adopts.
That's what I think I've been saying from the start
What youve said at the start was that inflation is a reason you might stop spending more because you dont like inflation. What were discussing now is that the benefits of more spending stop when you start to increase inflation. Thats consistent with the old comments, but a significant and to me much more useful addition.
This is all an explanation of how it all already works.
How it works so far may be consistent with your theory, but also others where there is still cause to worry.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
1mo ago
"But currency is a liability to the central bank that issues it—a promise to stand behind the currency’s value in the future."
If thats why currency is debt, then youre including that promise into "what currency is". You would then have to, whenever you try to use the fact that "currency is debt" in your reasoning, also show that the promise wont be violated, else the argument is invalid. And you of course cant already use "currency is debt" to show that something will work out without breaking the promise, because thats a regress.
It's something you observe after the fact.
Thats fine, if you can tell at the end of each period whether you went over in the previous. It sounds like youre now suggesting something about inflation as the criterion. Is accelerating inflation the right criterion and old economists where just too worried about going over, or do you object to that criterion as well? What do you think of NGDP targeting?
I suppose it just looks more like just looking at the real world.
With private debt, the strategy of taking on more and more debt looks great right until noone is willing to lend you more. People rightly want a plausible model for "observations in the real world" before making them loadbearing. The temptation to ignore limitations based on "real world observation" is omnipresent in economics ("Most people are willing on the margin to help a bit without direct visible compensation, therefore communism"), and using theoretical problems as a setup to ignore theory is precisely what keeps critics of mainstream economics outside the mainstream.
The actual concrete accounting, logic, and plumbing seems much more useful to nail down and understand first, before starting to build more & more elaborate models on various assumptions.
Even without an end-date, economics always depends on expectations about the future. Trying to understand whats happening in the here and now before you get to those doesnt work.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
1mo ago
Having family members sell access isn't illegal assuming no quid-pro-quo, it's just an optics problem.
No, what I mean is, if Joe offered to do whatever thing the client wants to corrupt him for, in exchange for payment to Hunter, and Hunter doesn't give any money to Joe, and thats the plan. I would expect this to be illegal as well, but I dont know US law that well.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
1mo ago
You can't, that's the main draw of it.
My point is that, as nice as it may be to have something like that, it cant be all of society. You need? women, not just biological ones but social ones too, and you need to have some space for that. Even if they are then not nerds, then nerddom would need to have some kind of interface for an intended complement, and it doesnt. Nerds just want to marry nerdettes, and want them to not do the women things except when the need for it is really in your face, and then they copy something from mainstream society or wing it.
And from the male side, the really feminine thing to do is to just be one of the girls.
Is it? Concern about your appearance really is feminine behaviour, so IMO its congruent that trans women pursue a female body.
The people who do most of that complaining are not nerds.
Yes, but a lot of people from the overlap are here, thats why I brought it up. I didnt really understand the rest of your paragraph there.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
1mo ago
There isn't a consensus sorting of everyone into male and female either
I agree thats the status quo; but success for the trans movement would be creating one. Thats what I said.
they call a definitional core of "unambiguous women", but this would look like "phenotypical women not asserting they are not + progressives in good standing asserting to be women".
I think this goes back to whether the definition by self-identification is circular or not. I think we all, including OP, know that progressives can answer "a woman is whoever says theyre a woman" in response to the question. He must not consider that a real answer.
neither side is okay with transracialism (central-example whites asserting that they are central-example blacks).
Actually, I dont think theyre necessarily fine with non-central people asserting to be either, either.
where both agree on central examples, the boundaries are fuzzy so few would be comfortable defining an exhaustive predicate and committing to it
The difference is that with gender, progressives are accused, IMO accurately, of their criteria ultimately depending on sex stereotypes, and they deny it. The right on race, once its out that they care about it at all, doesnt really mind their categorisation judgements being understood. I dont think progressives even have a theory there, true or not, that they would want to deny.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
1mo ago
This graph isnt about getting married in a certain timeframe, its about getting married to a certain partner. There could still be some effect of that... though I notice now that the IFS data doesnt have age, so bodycount isnt necessarily about relationship length, as it would be for someone evaluating the mostly-similarly-aged women he might date. Note also that their table 1 shows the odds of marrying partner #n continually decining (beware the pooled fields).
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
1mo ago
I agree that an AI can track the "same person" thing just fine if its trained that way. But if you understand that metric, then why do you think shaving is a similar size change to surgery? Or did you already have some kind of plastic surgery that it saw through?
I'd feel uncomfortable without one, so it's more likely that your own internalized ideal of your body image has you clean shaven
No, Im very sure the discomfort is a tactile thing. Thats certainly how it seems to me, and in terms of the timeline, it was only quite a bit later, looking at photos, that I thought it had looked stupid. If Id thought that ahead of time I just wouldnt have grown it out. Again, said beard got to over 5cm, because I hoped it would feel more like headhair once long enough. Ive had short beards since, and the difference between comfortable and uncomfortable lengths is not particularly visible.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
1mo ago
Your example of a shave is actually already in the right ballpark.
I guess I disagree? I can see why youd think that, if youre going by an "objective" metric of similarity, but by that metric a 5 year old will always be more similar to another 5 year old than a 50 year old - and yet, we often recognise relatives on pictures where they were 5. For the sense of "do you look like the same person", things that naturally vary over time such as hair length are much less impactful than ones that require surgery.
Humans are usually quite resilient here. I would expect to see dysmorphic or dysphoric reactions in someone already quite mentally unwell
I mean, I think Im mentally well. But the reason I got rid of the beard is that it still felt uncomfortably a year in, so it doesnt seem crazy to me that such visual changes would stick around as well.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
1mo ago
Or maybe it's a bit more of a body horror thing where you're uncomfortably aware of the chance of the piercing catching on something and causing a horrible accident.
Yes. I get visions of something tugging on them really hard. I dont like tattoos either, but those arent uncomfortable to look at.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
1mo ago
Its possible to do all sorts of things safely, if you pay good attention and limit the load/volume accordingly. But those limits might be too strict to progress with, which is obviously not good and will lead typical lifting personalities to break them eventually. And for what, if you dont compete on strength?
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
1mo ago
These kinds of goals are special cases that we wouldnt expect to arise consistenly without a reason. Not touching the universe outside [radius] is a constraint, by default you can achieve a goal better by not being so constrained. Even your examples dont really work; a conservationist might still need to expand to protect empty space from other, non-conservationist expanders. The paperclip simulator might still get more data centers to simulate even more, etc. Its possible to construct an example that works on purpose, but its not the general case, and even if it were, its would have to be overwhelmingly likely, because it only takes one to become visible.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
1mo ago
In the "support continues" scenario, are you expecting last years level of aid for the rest of the conflict, or the previous baseline?
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
1mo ago
Christian nationalists believe they will succeed because God is on their side. You may not accept these reasons as being valid, but they are very real and compelling reasons to them.
I suppose if you think that gods commands are entirely unrelated to how he chose to create the world, and will win out purely through some kind of direct intervention (but still you do have to fight with maximum effectiveness for it to happen, any moral scruples and you lose), it would lead to this strategy. But I dont think this specific version just is christian belief, and that its appealing to some ideologues precisely because theyve internalised not believing in a natural order.
all they can do is encourage the development of a civil society that wants to be socialism/christian, etc. The strategy is sound. The reason that it's not done by everyone is that it's hard and requires patience.
You dont think the establishment tries to maintain a civil society that wants them?
Hitler sums it up in Mein Kampf
Im not saying those tactics cant work - someone is always gonna win. And a brief look at his neighbors and historical context suggests it wasnt just random either. There are propably some ideosyncratic positions of the Nazi party that that won only with them, because Hitler was a great speaker, but the general direction seems to derive from broader factors.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
1mo ago
Im not talking about "principles", per se. "Burn it all down so that my ideology can inevitably emerge from the ashes" is an asymmetric method as far as Im concerned (though usually not a very good one). Content-agnostic methods are those that, definitionally, everyone can use. If youre ideology is in any way related to how society works, you should have more options available to you.
Another way of looking at it: Yes, christian nationalism is in a very weak position. That means if you only use methods that everyone can use, you should expect to get crushed, since theres a winner-takes-all effect to this, and youre not really any better at it. Why do you think you can win?
Now the reasons why your original tactics don't work in defiance of your ideology in the first place..?
I think if your tactics dont work, its generally in your interest to have a think about why.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
2mo ago
The hierarchy it’s replacing isn’t the hierarchy of government, but the more nebulous, albeit extremely real, hierarchy of informal status that drives people to compete for praise, attention, and mates.
I thought this was you saying "People still compete for praise, attention, and mates, but now the game is different" - because that would sound like worldy rewards. If you mean something people do instead of competing for those, then... it seems your prescription on earth actually is communism. Youre saying its not communist only because your reasons are different, where originally I thought your defense was along the lines of "Some christian beliefs in isolation would prescribe communism, but if you consider the supernatural principles as well, it no longer prescribes communism even on earth.".
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
2mo ago
My word choices are once again not optimal. What I meant was, if there was a bishop of rome, and also a different person whos the head over all the churches, christs vicar on earth etc., the way the pope is for the catholics now, would that be fine?
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
2mo ago
arguing for physical resurrection
To be clear, Im in favour of all three points. I dont want to say agree, since Im an atheist and that would make it even weirder than it already is, but Im anti-gnostic.
I'm not against the idea of holy objects or corpses, but relics imo verge into idol worship, where they seem to have power of their own.
Certainly some people do that. I think personally seeing and maybe interacting with a semi-important piece of Gods history can have a big impact on someone. Its not separate in the sense that its an inevitable part of whatever happened to and with it in the first place. Visiting the holy land is similar, and propably seems less idolatrous.
while that may be symbolically violating Jesus I'm confident he's not actually harmed, so common sense tells me that the Communion isn't literally part of his body.
Is a sacrificial animal harmed by what you do to its flesh after the sacrifice? And yet that is clearly its body that youre eating. I dont think theres anything contradictory about it being both Jesus flesh and not part of his current living body. And since its apparently fine that heaven is made from divine matter thats invisible, I dont think the lack of apparent changes is a problem either.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
2mo ago
Heaven is basically another dimension. Point A in heaven doesn't correspond in any way with point B on Earth.
I dont think its really that defined. If you wanted to make it into a scientific model, this propably fits the typical opinions pretty well, but Im not sure you need to. As an analogy, what would happen if roadrunner and coyote were to run into the tunnel holding hands? AFAIC, once youre in the realm of basically-magic already, its fine to say NULL.
Also Im pretty sure the mormon astronaut thing did involve other planets at one point.
Wait, does the API search work again?
More options
Context Copy link