MollieTheMare
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User ID: 875
A probability density function does not have to be transcendental to be able to integrate for a cumulative probability. I have no way of knowing what convention you use for work, and there might be good reasons to use a left hand rule numerical integration for your application, but there is nothing magically more correct about a left hand rule integration. Probability of death is strictly increasing by the time you reach 78. If you use the left hand rule to integrate over a region where a function is monotonically increasing, you will systematically underestimate the area under the curve.
With respect to the Social Security Actuarial Life Tables, it is in fact meaningful to talk about regions between nodes. The numbers in the table are not raw population deaths. In fact part of the methodology for producing the table in the first place is reconciling five year central death rates and exact age one year probabilities. Once you have meaningful nodes 365 days apart you are not dealing with a sampling problem if you want to estimate a value at 301 days—you are dealing with an interpolation problem. They do anticipate people using the table for intra-node calculation. From the methodology notes:
Although a life table does not give mortality at non-integral ages or for non-integral durations, as can be obtained from a mathematical formula, acceptable methods for estimating such values are well known.
MollieTheMare
5mo ago
I guess the entire difference is down to if you should index by 78 or 79 then. The table is on "Exact age," so I guess @netstack was right to use 79. He even rounded down from there to "about 24%" from 24.6%, so it probably is about right interpolating. As the comments above point out, additional factors probably are more important at that level of accuracy already though.
MollieTheMare
5mo ago
I was also surprised the number was that large, but also got 24.6% both taking the ratio of "Number of lives" and the complement of the product of the complement "Death probabilities."
Interestingly, in the notes they include cause-specific ultimate rates of reduction, so you could exclude the violence category if you are only considering health related causes.
MollieTheMare
5mo ago
Could you just choose to do it?
This is what confuses me about this whole thread. I feel like if went through a year long dry spell I could, more-or-less, shag anything. Strong physical attraction would not at all be a requirement in that case. Assuming no drastic shift in libido on my part, no extreme physical deformities, not morbidly obese, no disturbing fetish stuff. Is it possible that the porn use is actually excessive, and it's killing the ability to perform when it's time to get it on IRL? It seems like it's too late now, but what would have happened if OP just initiated at month 6, then closed their eyes and though of "England"? Is that less healthy than relying on porn 100%?
I've had a Totes 731 Stormbeater Golf Umbrella for more than a decade now. Literally caught it on the fly while riding my bike. It's one of those things where you hand just goes up to protect your face, then you realize you caught it and wish it was on video so people would believe it actually happened.
As you might surmise from the fact that it was flying free in a storm, the venting on large umbrellas does not make them perfectly wind proof. I would say that Beaufort 6 still holds "umbrellas used with difficulty." It has a fiberglass or carbon-fiber shaft, I'm not aware of any cane handle umbrellas that have a fiber reinforced shaft. Hope you can find one if that's a hard requirement, but they are pretty common on "golf" umbrellas. I think the canopy arms are also fiber-reinforced plastic on the 731. The tip is hollow plastic, and showing through after a roommate "borrowed" it without asking, and then decided to use it as a walking stick after the rain stopped.
The durability for regular use I wouldn't know, despite it being 15+ years old. I essentially only use it if an elderly relative is visiting and I am walking them to the car in the rain. My wife would normally hold her own umbrella or wear an overcoat. I guess I might go out and greet her with the mega-umbrella if she comes home and was not expecting rain. What is the etiquette now amongst the youths, do men still shelter their dates under a shared umbrella? Or is this just an entry way umbrella you would grab if you need to take the dog for a walk?
Edit: After looking around a bit I think this might be the same umbrella with a traditional handle: https://drivegoods.com/products/totes-jumbo-umbrella I don't see that model on the Totes' website, so it might not be in production anymore though.
MollieTheMare
5mo ago
That was actually a very helpful analogy. I think?
So in a healthy relationship, you might start the game throwing 96. Coach will leave you in in the 8th, throwing in the high 80s, so you can get the shutout. But in OPs case he's getting pulled in the third because he made the start hanging balls over the plate, and has loaded the bases with zero outs.
I think I still don't understand exactly what slope of decline is the normal range, but in this case I guess it doesn't matter because the starting intercept is zero.
MollieTheMare
5mo ago
Marriage without physical attraction in that age bracket seems pretty miserable - don't do it.
I'd be interested if you expand on this a bit. Like OP is early 40's and, uh GF?, is late 30's. At what point is it normal for sex drive to appreciably decline. Somehow I thought that 45 is early, but not supper early, for menopause to begin.
I would have thought that there are healthy marriages, where both people have taken good care of themselves and look good for their age, but neither is close to their objective peak physical attractiveness. Is the expectation that experience and comfort with self/partner makes up for not being as young and hot? That the attractiveness is found in the intimacy of knowing your partner so well.
Surely it's unreasonable to expect your partner to be as physically attractive, with respect to sexual intimacy, as she approaches 40 then when she was 24. What's reasonable to expect? Do you need like > 80% physically attraction relative to the hottest young thing, or just some irreducible quantum of attraction that you share with each other?
MollieTheMare
5mo ago
If you are worried about the fat macros from using butter, cooking oil-spray (like PAM) also work well for frying eggs in cast iron.
IMO it does work better than just vegetable oil but not quite as well as butter. It's also much much less tasty than using butter. The ones in the pressurized cans seem to work better than the pump versions. I'm not too worried about the propellant as the amount used per serving is minuscule. For daily eggs one can lasts me 6 month to a year. The classic version works the best, olive oil version works well but you have to be careful of the smoke point using in cast iron, the coconut oil version works well as long as it's above 74° F in your kitchen but has a hard time aerosolising otherwise.
If using cooking spray to conserve calories, go easy on how long you spray. One serving is something like 1/4 of a second. It's supposed to be ~1g fat per second spray.
MollieTheMare
5mo ago
Nutritional deficiency was more or less also my instinct when I read the description. The mechanism I had envisioned is:
- Sweating + some diuresis triggers a thirst response
- OP reacts by consuming a bunch of sodium and water, thus the night time need to pee
- The increased urination flushes other critical minerals (including Iron which I failed to mention)
- Deficiency in blood mineral concentration increases thirst, return to 2.
I also agree that blood-work could be helpful here, but it would still be hard to interpret. Finding a physician who can properly interpret the results usually requires a specialist, and even that is hit-or-miss.
Even with a multi-vitamin, do you you think separate supplementation for each under covered nutrient with individual or a multi-mineral would also be advisable? My recollection is most common multi-vitamins still do not come close to even 50% RDA on several important minerals (including iron and potassium). Blanketing the spectrum does seem a lot easier than accurate tracking, but also makes it really hard to isolate variables.
Assuming, you do need supplements in addition to the multi, how important is nutrient timing in your opinion? For example if OP is supplementing vitamin D, calcium, and iron. How strong is the synergistic effect of D+calcium and how strong is the antagonistic effect of calcium+iron?
I was also thinking last night that perhaps the need to supplement magnesium in the first place is already mostly explanatory. OP didn't mention which type of magnesium supplement they was using. Of the zillion options which do you think is best for bio-availability, the ability to cross the blood-brain barrier, and sleep, Magnesium L-Threonate? Is it possible the version OP is using is just barely available enough to affect RLS, but not available enough at the brain? On timing, most recommendations are to take magnesium at night for sleep. In my personal experience if I take magnesium right before bed I end up with crazy dreams. With my last big meal of the day, or even at breakfast, tends to work better for me.
MollieTheMare
5mo ago
tried adding more electrolytes (i.e. Gatorade), but I don't know what the hell I'm doing or what I'm measuring. In any case, I eat a lot of salt as is and I didn't notice any difference when adding additional electrolytes in my diet.
Literally Gatorade? Despite the advertising, the "electrolytes" in Gatorade are mostly sodium. One potato has ~8x the potassium of a 20 oz Gatorade, IIRC. Some of your symptoms are consistent with your electrolytes being completely wack. Slightly supported by the mentioned magnesium supplementation combined with high sodium, but no mention of potassium, phosphorus, or calcium.
Maybe try tracking micro-nutrients in cronometer, and seeing if you are hitting adequate intake for everything? It's hard to get enough potassium, especially at higher sodium intakes since the ratio of potassium and sodium also matters.
I also agree with @jeroboam time of day for physical activity does tend to matter, though more for some people than others. It's also likely that you need to allocate more time to adequately recover if intensity or volume is high. I used to live with a very high level athlete, it wasn't uncommon for him to allocate like 10+ hours for bed. You can get away with a lot less if you are not training hard, other stressors are low, or if it's a short stint but some people just naturally need more sleep time.
MollieTheMare
5mo ago
Yes, your examples are correct. At least according to the date package I used:
> library(lubridate)
> all(c(ymd('1903-07-26') - ymd('1896-07-26') == 2555,
+ ymd('1911-01-19') - ymd('1904-01-19') == 2557,
+ ymd('1905-01-19') - ymd('1904-01-19') == 366,
+ ymd('1905-07-26') - ymd('1904-07-26') == 365))
[1] TRUE
Checks out in lubridate, which I'm very confident works back until at least Friday 15 October 1582. I think it might even work before that, but would have to do a bunch of digging to be 100% sure what the first epoch it can check is.
You also picked the golden era where the Gregorian calendar reformations were locked in, but you don't even have to deal with leap seconds, UT1, UTC, ... etc if you want periods down to the second.
MollieTheMare
6mo ago
For example, maybe 2 workers lift the oversize bags.
I think this is probably it. In the US the standard is set by the NIOSH Lifting Equation which sets the starting threshold for required two person lift at 51 lbs. The airline probably faces liability if they do not mark bags over 50 lbs as oversized.
From the marginal fuel consumption point of view, most xUS airlines do set a limit on carry-on baggage weight too. Lufthansa for examples sets it at (iirc) 9 kg. They don't normally enforce it, but I have seen people being asked to weight their carry-on baggage after moving items from overweight checked bags on Lufthansa in particular.
MollieTheMare
6mo ago
a repeating whining or wind blowing noise every second at higher speeds
Hopefully that goes away as the bubbles in the loop make it to the top.
With a 360, I wouldn't expect a load any normal user would reasonably run on a computer that's sitting in the same room as them to fully saturate the liquid in the loop. Maybe a supper long session of Cities: Skylines II, if you have literally Linus Torvalds needs for compiling Linux, or if your room needs an electric space heater so you run a synthetic benchmark/mine to keep warm at night.
MollieTheMare
6mo ago
Nice, custom loop or AIO? If custom loop what are people using nowadays for water-blocks on their GPU, did EK survive their 'try just not paying their suppliers and employees' experiment?
What's your workload like, mostly gaming? I feel like the sweet spot for AIO cooling of CPUs is something like 30s to 10 minute saturation workloads. Shorter than that and you're not producing enough heat for your cooling system to matter. Longer than that you're saturating the liquid anyway. But for some GPU limited games and some workstation tasks even a "cheap" AIO has way better peak noise normalized performance than even pretty premium air coolers.
MollieTheMare
6mo ago
Yeah... Though I guess non-devs might feel most comfortable composing in Word, or google docs now? I assume a google doc has "good enough" versioning you wouldn't need to keep 12 distinct versions.
For someone who is moderately technically inclined but who needs to do custom formatting in Word, for a class or whatever, there are two options that come to mind for using git. Both slightly janky.
The first is to unzip the .docx file, and version control that in git. Gitignore docx files themselves in the repo. Without unzipping git (at least used to) treat docx containers as binary files, so you won't be able to look at diffs. Microsoft doesn't supper love you unzipping office files, so unzipping requires extra steps.
The second option that comes to mind is to compose in markdown. Maybe GitHub flavored markdown, even editing a gist on girhub from your preferred browser. Or whatever your favorite markdown editor is. Then convert the markdown file to a .docx via pandoc. You're not done yet though, because the docx is probably a "web document" format, so you still need to apply your paged formatting and re-save as a "regular" word doc. This biggest advantage of this to me is not the versioning using git, it's being able to make comments to myself while composing. You do have to be careful though, different flavors and versions of markdown parsers treat comments differently.
MollieTheMare
7mo ago
If a SAD lamp is not enough, you can try also tuning your lighting even more. The Rationalists™ version is sometimes called a lumenator.
MollieTheMare
7mo ago
I always thought the main problems with just scaling up a cube were:
-
People will complain about the lack of natural light in the interior rooms. For example Munger Hall. I personally think this is way overblown, especially for college students staying out until 4 AM and waking up at 11 AM. Or people in Minneapolis with no sun for normal at home hours in the winter, and the sun waking you up at 4 AM in the summer. With high CRI, high intensity, fresnel lens adjusted, power efficient LEDs atifical lighting can be better than the sun. Completely controllable timing and intensity, no unwanted solar heating, controlled glare, controlled color temperature, etc.
-
The mechanical integrations eat up much of the cost savings of the structure. Isolating and running the HVAC for that many units requires a bunch of ducting runs, eating up interior volume. Additional expensive and loud air handling units are required to over come the static resistance of all the ducting. Times 2 for the plumbing. This is why it's so hard to convert a space designed for a cube farm to residential use. You can feed an open space with a single giant plenum, but individual dwelling units require individual ducting for air quality.
Of course, you can overcome these by only scaling on the z-axis, but then you lose much of your scaling law advantage. You also run into other scaling problems, for example The Mile-High Illinois, where you would have eaten up most of the lower floor space with elevators.
MollieTheMare
7mo ago
Were you searching from a clean browser over a VPN? If not, it's likely that your hit was due to Google Personalized Search. Where a site you have visited in the past that contains a rare keyword is much more likely to be promoted to the top of the results it returns. I'm not sure it's confirmed, but it's possible they use browser fingerprinting for "personalization" as well now. So even on a fresh IP with no cookies, their browsing history linker is able to determine the "user" to personalize for.
MollieTheMare
7mo ago
Low-calorie does limit your options. Not necessarily for dipping and in no particular order:
- Malt Vinegar, possibly with some amount of "brown sauce." If it works for fish and chips, it probably works with just chips
- Tomato Chutney or salsa, especially with larger home fries
- Mustard, stone ground or whole grain. According to the totally unbiased National Mustard Museum, superior in every way to using ketchup. Particularly for the calorie conscious.
- Nutritional yeast. I guess a topping not a sauce, but still another option to complement fries. IMO, needs salt too. Low calorie and low sodium sounds very miserable. Kind of a funky cheesy flavor with way fewer calories than cheese sauce.
- Hot sauce. Frank's RedHot reminds me the most of using ketchup. Melinda's is available pretty broadly, and has a bunch of flavors of varying spiciness.
- Gochujang. Depending on what you're having the fries with, but surprisingly versatile as a sauce for something so strongly associated with Korian food.
- Crema. Can be lower calorie if made with yogurt or fat free sour cream, less tasty that way of course.
Personally, I don't worry too much about the calories from a table spoon of sauce. I typically go for Ketchup, BBQ, or 1:1 fry sauce (as apposed to 2:1 of Mayochup, as a concession that mayo does have appreciable calories, even at the table spoon level). If squeezed from a fine tip condiment food service bottle, you can "cover" a pretty large area with relatively little sauce.
MollieTheMare
8mo ago
Glad it mostly worked out fine.
The lack of a proper place to mount extinguishers is a major flaw in the residential building code, IMO. Like the IBC spent the last three revisions updating the spacing of outlets on a kitchen island, but there's no standard place to mount an extinguisher.
For those who are not renting, I highly recommend just buying a vent cleaning kit. Online or at the home center. Apparently you are supposed to clean your dryer vent every year, and if you already own a drill and vacuum, a cleaning kit is less than the cost of calling a chimney sweep out. Once you're set up, the additional time per vent is pretty small.
MollieTheMare
8mo ago
USB specifications are an absolute clusterfuck.
At least they have counting down to a science:
- USB 1.0 (A, B)
- USB 1.1 (A, B)
- USB 2.0 (A, B, Mini-A, Mini-AB, Mini-B)
- USB 2.0 Revised (A, B, Micro-A, Micro-AB, Micro-B)
- USB
3.0,3.1 Gen 1, 3.2 Gen1x1 (A SuperSpeed, B SuperSpeed, Micro-A SuperSpeed, Micro-AB SuperSpeed, Micro-B SuperSpeed) - USB
3.1 Gen 2, 3.2 Gen 2x1 (A SuperSpeed, B SuperSpeed, ... , Type-C) - USB
3.2, 3.2 Gen 2x2 (Type-C) - USB4 (Type-C)
- USB4 2.0 (Type-C)
MollieTheMare
8mo ago
In reference to the prime 137:
When I die my first question to the Devil will be: What is the meaning of the fine structure constant?
- Wolfgang Pauli
Primes are pretty freaky.
MollieTheMare
8mo ago
Really shows how easy it is to mine out a one in a thousand result.
By my calculation the raw probability, assuming 50/50 odds per trial, is about equivalent to a z-score of 3. As a heuristic for correcting for mining and p-hacking effects, there is a tongue in cheek expression that's something like "50% of all 3-z results are wrong."
Unfortunately, really hard to tell if it's a technique issue without seeing it in person. If you can squat bodyweight (+0 lbs), that would be what I think is most probable though.
I generally don't think leg extensions are warranted if you are not very advanced, like squatting bodyweight + 1.5x bodyweight or even 1+2x. Even then I think there are better quad exercises. The problem with leg extensions is that even if the center of rotation starts aligned, there is only exactly one Q-angle where the rotation of the knee will be exactly aligned with that of the machine. So the probability that your leg has exactly the right Q-angle is roughly 0.
If it is just a matter of the muscularity supporting the knee, very gradually working up from the point where you can squat with no pain works for some reasonable majority of people. Make sure to be very careful with knee tracking, avoid valgus collapse, and engage your abductors and gluteus to hold hip external rotation. Try different heal heights, generally the higher-bar you squat the move vertical the torso, the higher the heel required. You might also find some other variation does not cause pain. I prefer something where you have control over all the degrees of freedom of the knee tracking. Maybe squatting to a box or front squats. Smith machine, hack squats, and belt squats might be okay, but still force you to follow the path of the machine rather than the path that avoid the pain point. Sissy squats are amazing for knee health, but pretty advanced to do in free space.
Sometimes it's just a matter of a bit of warmth and pressure. ACE bandage weight knee wraps or sleeves should be enough. Heavy power-lifting weight versions are probably overkill, and shouldn't be needed to avoid pain. Don't be afraid of a lot of volume with light weights to warm up. Something like 10xbw, 20xbw, 12x45, 5x95, 2x135, 1x185, 1x225, 1x275, 315 working weight. Yes it does take forever, but you can probably eventually take bigger jumps once you find a squat pattern that doesn't cause pain.
With any luck your leverages will change as you train and one day you will wake up and it won't be a problem anymore. If it's not a trivial problem an x-ray probably won't be able to see it either.
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