No_one
Underemployed Slav. Likes playing Factorio.
User ID: 1042
No_one
11d ago
I note with dismay the link was written using chatGPT's default slop style.
No_one
11d ago
My interpretation is that Israel is short on interceptors, Iranians are short on missiles bc Israelis almost certainly bombed exits of tunnel storages and possibly generally short. Rumor is Iranian air defenses rallied and made striking Tehran harder.
Both sides have refrained from truly damaging strikes so far. E.g. Israel didn't hit oil terminals at Kharg island, Iranians didn't hit turbine halls of the five Israeli power plants.
American bombing effort, if it wasn't fake (smaller yield bombs dropped) almost certainly failed to destroy Fordow enrichment facility which was engineered to absorb such damage.
Iranians want to withdraw from the NPT and are reportedly more avid than ever for a nuclear program. So, if Israelis are truly dead set on dismantling that, they're going to have to continue bombing until Iran turns into a failed state.
Can they? Do they have the munitions, spare parts etc?
No_one
11d ago
Good, interesting write up.
However:
It was an explicit break from the premise of the DNC as a neutral leadership institution for democrats anywhere.
Were the claims by Sanders supporters that DNC essentially sabotaged his chances to win primaries in '16 plain lies?
I have a hard time believing in 'neutral' institutions in the first place.
No_one
11d ago
It's sometimes used but I have doubts about the 'a lot's. SpaceX disables access for the ones in Russia. They're easily capable of preventing Russians from using them.
No_one
11d ago
How is the ease with which a modern military could impose a police state 'assuming the conclusion ' ?
You're going to need to explain that because it seems erroneous.
will take a substantial period of time
You sure? Simply grabbing the cell phone operator's admins by the throat, sending in your own experts and the network disconnecting devices whose IMEIs aren't registered as using the app would get most everyone who uses the phones to do so.
Alternative is not having any comms.
No_one
11d ago
Expecting Iranians not to be able to build compact, boosted fission warheads 70 years after such were first built is unreasonable.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boosted_fission_weapon
Note that they do have an interest in lithium 6 separation.
More importantly, to play MAD, you have to have launch-ready nuclear weapons.
Chinese spent decades with hydrogen bombs and a definitely not launch ready posture.
Neither India nor Pakistan have MAD capability, yet their weapons are still deemed useful.
For the purposes of scaring away carrier groups, fission warheads are entirely sufficient. While you may think glassing cities after the enemy blew up a carrier or military base of yours is a proportional response, most of the world wouldn't think so.
No_one
13d ago
...until you get outside of the cities with the infrastructure to support a constant surveillance system. Which is to say, most of any given country, including China.
Seeing as drones are proliferating on the battlefield, in 20 years a platoon is going to have an APC with a server rack with more intelligence than an small office building of west pointers and a dozen recon drones in the air at all times.
Between everyone having a phone which can be easily turned into a snitch that keeps track of where you go and military drones, keeping the population surveilled and preventing it from feeding or aiding guerrillas is going to be a lot easier.
They were doing this in Xinyang. Every single person had to use a phone with a tracking app, they were also checking in arrivals at every single building, probably noting who was in close proximity. This isn't even SF, this is present day counter-insurgency
global support flows from cyber attacks / satellite communication support operations.
Tell me, how are there going to be 'cyber attacks' when the army will go around methodically securing or destroying all satellite comms on the grounds of them being security risks ? And the national fiber network is of course not going to be left in place, it's going to be severed from the internet and any channels going in or out are going to be approved by some paranoid AI system ?
still requires you to set up a nation-wide panopticon
Setting up a nation-wide panopticon is only as hard as is forcing the population, at gunpoint, to install the right brand of spyware app onto their phone.
Not very hard at all. They need the phones for most financial operations and they use either android or apple, so you need two kinds of apps to use lol. Verrry difficult. I'm sure there's going to be 3-4 Chinese vendors of such apps fiercely competing with each other over features.
With global IQ of 90 and AI, spyware apps are probably going to come into fashion to prevent silicon mischief.
No_one
13d ago
I dare say that militaries are not going to 'vibe code' their networks, or if they do that they're going to continually run automated AI hacking attempts at it in order to find all possible exploits and patch them.
EDIT: i should read more carefully and post not as late at night.
You don't remember the congressional baseball match shootout? Just 8 yrs ago?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_baseball_shooting
Perp was an abusive asshole if you read about his background, strongly political but not a schizo.
The only reason it wasn't a mass murder is luck and maybe the perp not being that great a shot?
No_one
13d ago
Warheads on missiles are removable. All they'd need to do to launch a nuke is replace the warhead in one of their missiles with a nuclear one.
They know that Israel has invested a ton in missile defense and would probably gamble on being able to shoot down a lone surviving ballistic missile or two.
Israeli ABM consistently fails to intercept fast missiles that evade. It's simply too hard a problem. You need to track them exactly and guide interceptors, which have guidance issues bc of aerodynamic heating onto the incoming stuff.
They can intercept ballistic missiles all right, but not the more modern, faster ones that glide ..
No_one
13d ago
Total informational blackout, facial ID systems and military drones are going to make occupations much less painful. If you can conduct head counts, track every single person with with cameras or transponders and run AIs to spot suspicious activity, anomalous food use or insurgent activity, war of conquest gets a lot easier.
Also, the age of hobbyist level drones being militarily useful against China or Chinese friendly states ends 5 years from now, at worst.
No_one
13d ago
Don't worry about Taiwan war.
American magazines of anti-missile interceptors are so low they'd never even get carriers in range to help Taiwan.
The war would be, perhaps, a blockade of Malacca straits and some posturing/cyber warfare etc.
No_one
13d ago
They provided blueprints and a couple thousand, so maybe (gasp) $30,000,000 in crappy drones. That's less than a single jet.
Russians are now making Geran-2 drones wholly on their own.
No_one
13d ago
Israel isn't a NPT member state.
The actual impetus appears to be the stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, but 60% enriched uranium isn't itself a violation of the NPT.
With modern centrifuges that's a few days away from material for efficient uranium bombs.
No_one
13d ago
Aren't Israelis guaranteed to blow up the Kharg island oil terminal and any other terminals if Iran refuses to hand over the uranium?
No_one
13d ago
It's not possible for a MOAP to destroy a facility 100m deep in rock. It's intended to strike bunkers 40m deep in soils.
You would need a lot of successive strikes, possibly with something in between else to remove rubble and allow deeper penetration.
No_one
14d ago
These are not really comparable, method or cohort wise. Postal survey is probably biased towards bored old people..
Also it's strongly suggestive that on the link paper claims length of exposure to finasteride was correlated with the ED..
No_one
14d ago
So it's a show that selects for lolcows and then allows them to humiliate themselves by their unwise actions?
No_one
14d ago
Okay, it might be noting, but here's some keywords you can look up.
No_one
14d ago
the absolute risk is not so high that you need to run away screaming
You suggest this ED is some sort of lizardman finding and if you examined the health database you'd find 1.5% 15-42 male are getting ED that lasts 5 years even even if they don't use finasteride?
No_one
15d ago
Even if you're in the unlucky 1-2% that gets significant side effects, they usually wear off in weeks or months from cessation.
Papers on that say something completely different.
1.4% (167 men) developed persistent erectile dysfunction lasting a median of 1348 days.
Iran's victory condition is avoiding civil war, preserving their strategic forces and forcing Israel to accept that Iran also has nukes.
Israel isn't Russia or US, it has limited resources. Iranian victory is possible.
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