No_one
Underemployed Slav. Likes playing Factorio.
User ID: 1042
No_one
9hr ago
That's what I am saying.
But the only way to do it is thermonuclear weapons.
20*20 kilotons on Israel would be catastrophic but it'd be survivable for Israel.
It'd not be survivable for Iranian government.
100*400 kilotons would destroy Israel, possibly even partially prevent retaliation.
That's the moment when Iran would have true deterrence and MAD with Israel.
Being able to wound the enemy and then assuredly die is not deterrence.
No_one
27d ago
If you want sources you can spend hours reading, same as I once did, I recommend this article in 'The Diplomat' (US state dept rag)
https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/how-asian-drug-trafficking-networks-operate-in-europe/
For the drug situation. Czech lands have the highest amount of meth metabolites in wastewater.
https://www.euda.europa.eu/publications/eu-drug-markets/methamphetamine/use-in-europe_en
Homicide data (one of the lowest in Europe):
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/cze/czech-republic/crime-rate-statistics
Alternatively, you can read what the finest wholly made in America LLM wrote:
||The Czech Republic stands as a principal European nexus for methamphetamine production, though its methodology defies the common image of industrial-scale super-labs. Instead, the landscape is characterized by a diffuse, atomized network of small, clandestine "kitchen labs" (varny), often run by independent local producers. This decentralized model is sustained by a prolific cross-border smuggling operation which funnels in the requisite precursor chemicals—chiefly pseudoephedrine extracted from over-the-counter medications—sourced in vast quantities from neighboring states with more lenient regulations, particularly Poland. The resulting crystalline product, known locally as Pervitin, is renowned for its exceptional purity.
The sheer volume of this production substantially outstrips domestic demand, cementing the trade's status as a primarily export-oriented enterprise. The primary beneficiary of this illicit commerce is Germany, with the bordering states of Bavaria and Saxony serving as the main entry points and consumption markets. A considerable flow also moves into Austria and, to a lesser extent, other neighboring nations. The product's high purity, coupled with its comparative affordability against narcotics from other global sources, ensures its persistent demand across Central Europe. The architecture of this trade is sophisticated, with a distinct division of labor between production and logistics. While Czech nationals typically oversee the chemical synthesis, the overarching trafficking operations are dominated by Vietnamese organized crime syndicates. These groups function as the logistical linchpins, orchestrating the procurement of precursors, consolidating the finished product from the myriad independent producers, and then managing its intricate and highly effective smuggling into foreign markets. This bifurcated structure creates a resilient criminal ecosystem, where the disruption of individual labs does little to impede the larger trafficking network.
Perhaps the most striking paradox of the Czech meth trade is its detachment from high-level violence. Contrary to the violent archetypes associated with large-scale drug trafficking, systemic, gang-related homicides are conspicuously absent. The country maintains one of the world's lowest homicide rates, and the narcotics enterprise does not significantly perturb this statistic. While isolated acts of violence intrinsic to any criminal milieu do occur, the operational structure of the trade—which minimizes direct turf wars between rival syndicates—and the broader societal context of low violent crime mean that the Czech case utterly defies the conventional, blood-soaked narco-state narrative.||
No_one
7hr ago
None of these animals are enemies of their predators, they're merely snacks. Those features you listed exist to induce the predator to choose another snack.
If Israel destroys Iran, having eaten one small nuke in the process would still leave it weaker vis-a-vis its other
Nothing in my original post implies Israelis do not know this. Obviously they, the HOG are certain to know Iranians have nukes, or are right at the threshold. They're probably hard at work trying to get high-res photos of said nukes because accusations without proof aren't that interesting today.
No_one
11d ago
It's sometimes used but I have doubts about the 'a lot's. SpaceX disables access for the ones in Russia. They're easily capable of preventing Russians from using them.
No_one
12d ago
I dare say that militaries are not going to 'vibe code' their networks, or if they do that they're going to continually run automated AI hacking attempts at it in order to find all possible exploits and patch them.
No_one
13d ago
Aren't Israelis guaranteed to blow up the Kharg island oil terminal and any other terminals if Iran refuses to hand over the uranium?
No_one
27d ago
China doesn't have the people to need to build on Mars, Venus, etc, either, their fertility rate is 1.
And it's always going to be 1. Same as US fertility rate never rose after 1930s. And of course Chinese are never going to produce AGI aligned to their values which would make them a formidable threat even if the population went back where it was in 1930, about 400 million.
No_one
13d ago
Israel isn't a NPT member state.
The actual impetus appears to be the stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, but 60% enriched uranium isn't itself a violation of the NPT.
With modern centrifuges that's a few days away from material for efficient uranium bombs.
No_one
1d ago
Iran has everything to lose and nothing to gain by declaring nuclear capability.
Reaction to this top-level post on Iranian nukes.
Iran's assumption seems to have been that by permanently remaining n steps away from having nukes (n varying according to the current political and diplomatic climate), you get all the benefits of being a nuclear-armed state without the blowback of going straight for them. But no, you need to have the actual weapons in your arsenal, ready to use at a moment's notice.
It's very possible Iran ALREADY has the weapons in their arsenal.
But the weapons are militarily and strategically useless for Iran in this particular situation.
Because every current adversary already has nuclear weapons, and more of them, and could retaliate forcefully.
Why they probably have them:
Between how much time they've had to develop them, and that the half-ton of 60% HEU could have be easily boosted to weapons grade by removing the third of lighter uranium atoms from it (it'd only take days), it's nonsensical to believe Iranians do not already have nuclear weapons or couldn't have them. Making an detonating an implosion uranium bomb is something the Chinese managed in 1963 or so. Today, with supercomputers and more mature nuclear physics knowledge out there, it's not hard at all.
The 15 bombs Iran could have if we take IAEA at their word, which if used, would result in destruction of Tehran and other major cities, could kill perhaps 300-500k Israelis. It'd not destroy the country, cause it to be overrun etc.
Iranians know that if they nuked an Israeli air-base, Israelis who have more bombs would H-bomb all of their major military sites and production facilities. They're probably working on hydrogen bombs, but have not conducted a test yet. So, there are no useful targets for these bombs at all. There's no reason to say you have something you cannot even use.
Israelis do not have the resources for a sustained campaign, so why strike them? They were going to give up their campaign sooner or later.
So, in conclusion:
Obviously, even if they had the bombs, they'd keep them secret, locked up in a bunker and work on producing hydrogen bombs and ICBMs and enough of a tunnel network to guarantee survival of a second strike capability.
Announcing that they have the bombs would
- feed Israeli narrative
- not actually provide them with the required capability to deter anyone
- cause normies in Israel/West to demand an actual end to Iranian nuclear program
the only upside would be boosting national pride.
No_one
7d ago
Drug prohibition is a crime against humanity!
I see people out there getting absolutely wasted on kratom, acting like lunatics, wasting huge amounts of money on it, not washing, being aggressive, getting in fights. Maybe drugs should be legal for people who are not idiots.
No_one
23d ago
How are you going to be even able to tell whether something is AI or isn't?
Enough people around here are functionally indistinguishable from LLMs from my point of view. They produce huge reams of mostly waffling text circling at respectable distance off the problem without ever addressing it and it's a chore to read.
Any LLM can do so too, in fact they readily behave exactly like that. With the barest minimum prompting skill all the usuall tells of LLM output disappear.
No_one
29d ago
I muted him on twitter in disgust months ago. It wasn't really outright lies or manipulation, but basically he was pushing stupid ideas that were generally aligned with what he wants, but were obviously unworkable and yet a person with an IQ somewhere around 140 thought 'fine, I'll post this'. I like the guy for his contributions to space but he is just like his dad. Shameless when it suits him.
There is no subtext, no reading between the lines, no scheming behind the scenes.
That you know of.
No_one
29d ago
The next boom we'll conquer Mars, Venus, maybe the stars.
Chinese are just gonna burn their space program while you're dealing with boomer entitlement and the chickens of the Civil Rights Act coming home to roost.
I don't think they will oblige.
No_one
4d ago
Mackenzie looks odd. She's got a very long neck, her hips are narrow. If she had a nice figure like Sanchez, even a less bouncy natural one and a proportional neck she'd be pretty attractive, but she's really a scarecrow.
No_one
6d ago
Alcohol is way too widespread to really ban, in addition relatively easy to make at home.
No_one
8d ago
Nobody is saying that. Nobody can even alter fifty places in the genome safely today, certainly not in a human embryo.
No_one
9d ago
IRGC helped put down ISIS and unlike Americans,never provided CAS for them.
They're not friends of 'jihadis',they have their own league.
No_one
13d ago
It's not possible for a MOAP to destroy a facility 100m deep in rock. It's intended to strike bunkers 40m deep in soils.
You would need a lot of successive strikes, possibly with something in between else to remove rubble and allow deeper penetration.
No_one
14d ago
The worst things we know of were done in Canada, the 'straw country' US uses for dirty work bc their judges have no jurisdiction there. Ewen Cameron kept some people on LSD in a coma so long they lost memories.
In the US I know that CIA ran a brothel where they were drugging people and drugged some military personnel in experiments, but I have never seen claims US universities (not just a few individual researchers) participated in this.
No_one
22d ago
The only way Israel could really hurt Iran is hitting the oil industry. All the HEU (60% HEU enough for 18 warheads, half a ton IAEA said) and much of the centrifugal capacity is under 200m of a mountain, only possible to attack it with thermonuclear bunker busters.
No_one
11d ago
How is the ease with which a modern military could impose a police state 'assuming the conclusion ' ?
You're going to need to explain that because it seems erroneous.
will take a substantial period of time
You sure? Simply grabbing the cell phone operator's admins by the throat, sending in your own experts and the network disconnecting devices whose IMEIs aren't registered as using the app would get most everyone who uses the phones to do so.
Alternative is not having any comms.
In case you really, really do not get it, it's what's called 'sexual innuendo'. English has a relatively impoverished vocabulary so people just substitute whatever words seem roughly appropriate and arrange them in a way that's suggestive.
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