No_one
Underemployed Slav. Likes playing Factorio.
User ID: 1042
No_one
1d ago
You need to read 'The Populist Delusion'.
There always is a 'they'. In any mass society. Bottom up organisation never lasts. They end up controlled by people who had to keep them organised. US is a very old society. No purges or revolutions for 200 years. Not to mention, US was founded by freemasons. (lol) 'they' is very traditional here.
How did they do that? What is the evidence that they did this?
They didn't. Merely are exploiting the event to restore normalcy. Someone was afraid US might totally crack up before WW3.
It'd matter quite a bit.
Maybe 20-30%. Shells are very hard to intercept and potent, when aimed properly. Artillery caused like 50% of casualties when used with ground spotting with line of sight or plane directed. (was nowhere near universal, iirc only Americans did it)
Missile systems like HIMARS and Smerch and Tornado allow hitting targets up to 100 km in. Tactical missiles, for which Russia is characteristically making with huge warheads of up to 800 kg, [can accurately hit targets at 400 km.] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K720_Iskander#Iskander-M). Unless you can prevent enemy from sneaking drones all over your airspace, there's no such thing as a 'front line'. There's just a region of pain where the slightest mistake can result in getting the equivalent of a 3-4 ton bomb falling at you with a 1-2 minute warning. Fuel-air explosives are more potent than high explosives.
But what about the NATO air forces? Well, even if missiles strikes disabling airbases are avoided, the expectation is reducing air defense to allow combat missions that aren't suicidal would take weeks to months. Yeah, you could whittle that down fast if you had thousands of AI-guided small drones outranging big SAMs ready to go, but NATO doesn't have that. And i've seen no indication they want to procure such. What's going on is they're buying Israeli 'stand-off' munitions at outrageous cost (something like $500k per one drone). That's probably, not gonna cut it unless cost goes down by a factor of 10-50x.
Modern war is just a whole different beast than what it used to be.
Let's remember that western military doesn't have a stealthy drone with ~100 km range and hours of loiter capacity per each howitzer. Even though it very well could. At some point, we're going to get a whole ecosystem of autonomous drones patrolling the airspace to prevent enemy recon, laser dazzlers to prevent satellite recon. But we're not there. Even if SV won over the MIC and started making these air-defense drones in bulk, it'd take 5 years to build up enough to matter for NATO. And they won't win. Billions in stock valuations are at stake here!
More important stuff:
-anti-aircraft missile production (US Patriot production is expected to go up to 600 a year. A year!). I've never seen figures on Russia but they seem well aware of the utility so it was likely a lot higher.
US has nothing like the Pantsir system, which is designed to be economical, with cheap, high performance missiles. No expensive seeker, basically a fast missile guided by impossible to jam commands from the radar and a proximity fuze).
-whether stealth actually works (unclear. You can detect stealth aircraft using bounces to places other than the radar, so called 'multilateration. With satellite comms, you don't even need to set up microwave relays between these sites.)
-degree of dysfunction in western militaries. Oppressing sand people doesn't translate well to contending with an enemy who can't wait but put a small, tiny drone above your unit and blow your entire headquarters section up with a 300mm missile. (Himars, Tornado-U?, beats me what Chinese call theirs). You need completely different tactics, weapons to kill and detect small drones etc. Winning at such a conflict would be hard even if you had an infinite budget and enough competent, serious people.
-whether China gets involved (imo a certainty, China allowing Russia to fall due to a lost conventional war would put more enemy bases on their borders. And allow yanks to embargo them almost totally on gas and oil).
No_one
8d ago
I prefer to err on the side of the wisdom of crowds and see 'past winners' continuing to buy 'winning' tech. Lazy and reductive, but its not like the history disfavors it.
I mean...do you? Look at WW2. Past winners prepared for a trench war. Especially in wars, looking at what used to win is just weird. There's been no good environment to establish what actually works and what doesn't.
As I understand it, NATO doctrine is really not well prepared for what's going on in Ukraine
In any case S400 has been directly used by Russia in Syria already, which is right next to Israel which has had F35s in the air since 201?, so the live data aspect should already be known to them
Russia is not firing them at Israeli war planes. Don't know what the etiquette is at locking targeting radars on IAF, but I imagine it's also not done there for obvious reasons (in a war zone, the logical thing is for someone to fire an anti-radiation missile the other way) so Israelis in F-35s wouldn't know if they're being acquired.
Later I thought of another reason for it : trying to pressure arm Turkey into buying Patriots or other NATO system. Looks like it's much more complicated:
https://warontherocks.com/2019/07/the-tale-of-turkey-and-the-patriots/
Turkey has been trying to build Patriots, but wanted some technology transfer to occur. Americans said no, won't let an ally license . So then they threatened to buy Chinese SAMs. Eventually bought the S-400.
No_one
9d ago
It’s even funnier to think the US wouldn’t have air superiority against the joke of Russian capabilities we’ve seen.
I guess you haven't been paying attention to Russia destroying US 'smart' munitions, in flight, repeatedly.
No_one
9d ago
Point to how good multilateration is vs stealth please.
You want me to give you the kind of data that'd get you into ADX Florence or whatever its Chinese equivalent is ?
I think people are just full of shit. And when there's billions at stake, the incentive to deny and lie and hope it somehow works out gets irresistible.
Americans pointedly refused to even sell Turkey their F-35s because they apparently don't want it tested against it in a real environment.
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/us-turkey-continue-talks-to-settle-f-35-dispute
S-400 doesn't phone home, no military system can afford to, so it's obviously they didn't want the problem where Turkish air defence troops find out just how good F-35 is. There's little justification for it. They just want to delay the inevitable.
No_one
9d ago
Wow. Imagine thinking US could do combined arms warfare in absence of air superiority.
No_one
12d ago
Plus the reality check of actual efficacy of all that GDP put into military. Fucking North Korea who is economical dwarf was able to send 3 million shells to Russia. US production is around 30,000 a month so North Korea was able to send years of production to Russia. And we are not even talking about what Russia was able to do since the war started - triple the production of artillery shells to 300,000 a month.
Now you're getting it. People have been talking about how a green service economy with little actual industry isn't actually useful when you need to like, blow stuff up or build it.
when their soldiers will return in cardboxes by thousands in peer-to-peer warfare
You know, it does takes years to build up big armies and industries. Germany was cheating in 1930s because their entire army was designed around re-expanding. They hired the best, they had WW1 veterans, everyone was trained on things a couple levels above him. And even then it took them like 6 years to build up. In a militaristic regime with relatively high approval rates, plenty of young people and so on.
Look at Biden or von der Leyen. Look at the green energy 20 year shamble.
Not gonna happen. It's late stage regime, the best it can do is suppress political opposition
Russia meanwhile doesn't have enough people to occupy Ukraine. It's not the world-conquering totalitarian state of scare propaganda. If they were, they'd not be hiring Nepalis, but everyone youngish but essential workers would be in the army and it'd be 4 million strong.
They could, if Putin was feeling insane enough try to take over Baltics and maybe (I give this low probability) Russian missile attack could wreck enough of NATO airbases (which I'm not even sure have solid air defenses against maneuvering, fast missile salvos) and then if NATO wasn't resolute enough to H-bomb Russian formations on the wrong side of the border in Baltics, then yeah, maybe they'll get taken over.
Which would be a net benefit to EU because 60-90% of working age non-Russians will just move away.
No_one
7d ago
So I get downvoted because some Japan tier messed up porn genres, ones I haven't even heard of are.. not allowed on Steam.
Got it.
No_one
21d ago
'Always a slum' With the 8-10x rate of homicidal violence between blacks and whites, and a roughly similar disparity in other forms of crime, it's fairly obvious one sort of 'slum' is a much more pleasant place to live.
I'm also skeptical of the 'always a slum' claim, as we have basically no slums in Czech Republic apart from the few Gypsy areas. Slums are not an inevitable part of life. They disappear once people have enough money to keep buildings repaired.
No_one
9hr ago
In much of Europe, meat is almost banned in public institutions.
City canteens rarely serve it, university canteens the same. E.g. in Berlin, the limit is one dish with meat per day on 4 different days.
No_one
22d ago
I'm not saying it can't be environmental, but cognitive ability in India is directly proportional to genetic closeness to the people who conquered the horrible place. (horrible because it's hot, full of bugs and worse)
Sure the stupid insistence on vegetarianism is probably lowering IQ by a few points. But genetically Indians apart from maybe Brahmins are far below snow people mean. You can probably even find hard data on that today, what with polygenic risk scores for education.
No_one
9hr ago
BioTech investors.
These also include the 5 food corporations that own almost all food processing and would love to have a new, very safe market.
No_one
8d ago
The extreme difficulty of getting adult content published on major distribution channels like Steam or the Apple/Google app stores
Difficulty publishing porn on steam? I find that doubtful.
No_one
11d ago
All this 'stealth doesn't work' smugposting to portend the sheer stupidity of NATO in developing a white elephant
Carriers are also obsolete against peer forces who are just going to launch a hundred supersonic missiles at them a salvo of strategic air above to give planes something to dodge & overwhelm point defense and simply sink them.
That doesn't prevent them being useful against people who don't have hundreds of good ASMs on hand. That's why Chinese are building two.
If you can make a plane stealthy at a reasonable cost, it's still worth it, because it's going to make it a harder target against simple radar systems.
spam is cope when GBAD all requires a first track to be established by a radar station
Multilateration aside which is kinda not talked about much but probably works...
You ever heard of IR sensors ? Yeah, sure, you say you can hide a MW level heat source against the cold sky. No, you can't. Even Yuropoor systems like the Eurofighter have IRST that detects planes up to 50 km from the front.. You think China's unable to manufacture similar sensors and stick one on a high pole in every square 100 kms and connect them by fibre? You think unless there's total overcast, a stealth plane with a 3 MW engine on cruise can just waltz through ?
Detecting IR is 1980s technology. Most air defence now comes with it. America is refitting such on its older warplanes.
Stealth works against countries with bad equipment. That doesn't mean it's going to work against a sophisticated enemy.
No_one
12d ago
Look, unless you're a 13 year old girl, you should probably understand by now that almost anything any government says that's not in an ultimatum is either lies or bullshit. And even the ultimatums can be bullshit, e.g. bluffing. Historical record is full of lies of this kind.
"I don't believe anything until it has been officially denied" is a 19th century saying.
So why this insistence that what is officially being said by people who are unlikely to be privy to the real plans matters ?
What is said in ultimatums (government to government communications) or in secret cables matters far, far more. Anything for public consumption is typically fake.
No_one
21d ago
The Axis powers were not the weaker party in WW2.
They absolutely were. In territorial extent, in manpower, in resources, in number of factories.
No_one
22d ago
Things have changed. Industrial revolution, science, you ever heard about those ?
It's all irrelevant now. The bleeding edge of humanity is close to fulfilling their purpose which is bringing into being a mechanical civilization that's going to replace our own. Logic of economy and competition will then ensure our gradual deprecation.
No_one
19hr ago
Yeah, and cause a shooting war between Texas & China and the United States in which obsolete weapon systems would encounter new weapon systems.
Chinese would be merely defending freedom of the seas there and preventing an illegitimate blockade.
No_one
1d ago
I've written off the entire sector.
If it's AAA, I'll play it if you pay me. Unless it's from Japan ofc.
No_one
2d ago
I really can't rule out someone making AI waifus that'd .. work as advisors to boys.
Certainly once AI gets (suppose AIs were as good at people as socially adept people, but of course had more data..) better, that'd probably work.
But who'd pay for all that compute ? We generally don't do things to solve problems but to help ourselves.
We know the IQ pretty much varies with white admixture.
So, it's not environmental.
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