NunoSempere
No bio...
User ID: 1101
NunoSempere
1mo ago
strawmanning of EA in general
I think EA does have a fair share of pure altruists. I know of at least four people that have gone celibate over the last few years as a result of being too concentrated on their jobs (and I claim they could have had romantic success if they had chosen to). I think coordinating around "we are doing the most good" also has an easy attractor in pure altruism.
the Soviets did not rely on charitable giving to fund their efforts
The thing I was pointing at is that the job of the apparatchiks was to nominally be pure altruists towards the population of Russia as a whole, and this predictably failed.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
There is a philosophical problem regarding whether pure altruism is conceptually possible; if you help someone, and you receive in exchange nothing but the satisfaction of having helped someone, then haven't you received something of value, thereby rendering the altruistic act "impure"? What if you don't even feel good about it, could it be pure then? But then, how were you motivated to help in the first place if you didn't even feel good about it? Regardless of how we answer these questions, I believe we can put the idea of absolute pure altruism to the side, because if it exists at all, it surely encompasses a minority of human interactions--source
I have a different perspective here, where a) I think it's conceptually possible, b) the interesting question is whether people who say they are are really only doing the pure altruism. I first encountered the term pure altruism in two papers by James Andreoni, from 1989 and 1990. In them, Andreoni lays out a model of altruistic giving, where agents contribute to a public good both because they value it in itself, but also because they get a private benefit, a "warm glow". He has some nice academic results, like a quick mechanism for indexing one's own altruism (if one was taxed one dollar less, or a thousand, how much more would one donate?), and other observations (taxation may not produce warm glow, and as a result increasing taxation by some amount doesn't reduce donations by that amount; when parents get a warm glow from giving to their children, children are incentivized to be more "spoilt" in a technical sense).
Are people who are saying they are doing pure forms of altruism actually doing so? Often not so. There are aspects of the EA community that just don't make sense by considering its participants as pure white cherubs of innocence and selflessness, although each particular case will be uncertain and ambiguous, and although pointing the discrepancy is tricky.
One of the biggest bets Open Philanthropy—a large philanthropic foundation I'm acquainted with—is making is in its own people. 161 people, earning say 150K to 250K salaries, with overhead of 20% to 40% (?) is 30M to 52M/year—probably higher than any one of their grants in 2024 and 2025. This does not include the cost of their office, another cool 16.5M. This leads them to have a class interest: they are invested in that form of doing philanthropy—rather than anonymous part-time rotating grantmakers whose funds under management grow or shring depending on their evaluated success (like the Survival and Flourishing Fund).
Trotsky's The Revolution Betrayed outlines how this happened with the apparatchik in Russia. The apparatchik are in charge of the wellbeing of the Soviet Union and ended up reallocating ressources to themselves. Some of my experience is that the grantmakers just want to be sucked up to, their ideas confirmed, their egos upheld, their strategies validated, their personalities admired. But at the same time they are selected for not rocking the boat in a deep way. More mundanely, people get grants from projects that don't work out, and don't pivot, because they think that would involve losing their jobs. EA seems like a failed Schelling point to me, because it advertises itself as doing pure altruism, but the actors end up fighting for their own self-interest, sometimes in quite obvious ways.
Is pure altruism selected out? If you do something for someone such that you don't get something out of it, can you continue doing that into the future? What is the mechanism? I think this is a key question that leads to rederiving some form of non-naïve form of altruism. Or alternatively, it leads to exploiting the pure altruism until its ressources are exhausted. One of the first guys to think about this ended up killing himself.
On the other side, pure altruism can be understood essentially as a mating display because it's a costly signal of strength, and it. The underlying purpose of ideology X isn't ideology X, it's displaying that you can still be a well-adjusted person even with its iron around your neck. Some version of this is fine by me, but the problem becomes when people really believe their ideologies and do cripple themselves for real, as happened with Germany's industrial economy as a result of their terrible energy policy. This matters to me, I made a heavily real, non-fake investment in learning German. I passed the C1 exam but probably at some point did have a C2 level in German. Now I just do business with Americans instead. I also do find it aesthetically distasteful when people do something which is nominally about, e.g., helping the homeless in a way that makes the problem worse, partly because nobody taught me how to do the Straussian reading.
At the same time, how do you coordinate around public goods? One cool answer is dominant assurance contracts but in practice this hasn't been implemented much, perhaps because the people who could have jobs as grantmakers they would rather preserve, but also because part of the problem of setting up a new project is just distribution, and you have a chicken an egg problem here (you could do a dominant assurance funding model if only you had already built the distribution funnel for your thing, but that's a big part of the job).
Anyways one answer here is to try to get people in man vs. nature games because man v. man conflicts are just fucked up.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
The forum was one that was trying really hard to be heterogenous in terms of opinions and also to be nice and moderating it was a nightmare ... A: Here's the troll who comes by only to post egregiously offensive "go kill yourself [list of slurs]",
B: Here's the more subtle troll, who keeps toeing the line as much as he can get away with.
C: here's the user who is not a troll. They actually do participate in discussion and are clearly trying to be a part of the community. They're also abrasive and/or obnoxious and/or inflammatory.
D: And then here's the final type of user that's problematic as a mod: They're a sensitive snowflake. Honestly they need to be sub-divided further, because some of them are just born snowflakes that can't handle any opposition to their viewpoint at all, and others are retaliatory snowflakes, because if I got a ban for three days for saying this opinion is dumb then that guy also needs to get a ban for three days for saying this other opinion is dumb.
I had a similar experience. From your perspective I would have been C or D. From my perspective, the moderators were Dolores Umbridge equivalents, trying to keep the appearance of legitimate discourse but also not really being able to take legitimate challenges to the sensitive consensus. Eventually I just left when enough Bs left as well.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Some items I'm looking at this week, as always provided on a best-effort basis.
Geopolitics
Americas
Drug cartel operatives from Mexico and Colombia joined the International Legion in Ukraine to gain experience with first person view drone usage.
Trump says Russia has '10 days from today' to end Ukraine war, or face penalties
Europe
UK threatens to recognize Palestine as a state
UK prisoners are bringing goods into jail via drone
Niger signs a nuclear cooperation deal with Russia
Chikungunya spreads from Indian Ocean islands
Spain and Greece are facing a health alert due to rising cases of Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF), an illness with a mortality rate of about 30%
Middle East
Gaza
Israeli military announces 'tactical pause' to Gaza attacks amid mounting global pressure
At least 46 Palestinians killed by Israeli fire in Gaza, officials say, as hunger crisis grinds on
Aid trucks resume flow from Egypt to Gaza via Rafah crossing for 3rd consecutive day
Trump's envoy meets Netanyahu for Gaza aid push
Testimony of a former employee of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation paints them as deliverately shooting into crowds.
Marjorie Taylor Greene labels Israel's actions as genocide
Egypt, UAE, Jordan airdrop aid over Gaza
Israeli army says 52 aid packages airdropped in Gaza
Famine threshold reached in Gaza
Yemen
Yemen's Houthis said on Sunday they would target any ships belonging to companies that do business with Israeli ports, regardless of their nationalities
Asia
Canada intends to recognise a Palestinian state in September
Taiwan is building up its drone capacity (but reporting doesn't point out how they will just be built by China)
Africa
Militant islamic groups have reportedly killed 155K people over the last decade
Cholera outbreaks in Africa
Attacks in Kordofan states (Sudan) cause hundreds of deaths, mass displacement and the collapse of essential services
Cholera Rampant Among Displaced and Refugees in Darfur and Eastern Chad
Bio
"Article looking at AI drug discovery. Much has been made about the potential for AI to produce pandemics, but they also make defense easier.
Tech and AI
Hierarchical reasoning might be a new architecture that does better.
New powerful open source models
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Here is how the weekly review ended:
- Geopolitical risks: Thailand and Cambodia exchanged fire, and Thailand sent some F-16s into Cambodia, but a ceasefire has already been reached. Israel is being accused of causing mass starvation in Gaza by the WHO and others. Zelensky faced his first large-scale domestic protests over a law weakening the independence of anti-corruption bodies.
- Economy and trade: The US and the EU reached a trade deal that would tariff EU goods coming into America at 15%. A similar agreement was reached between the US and Japan, which will now also face 15% tariffs on its goods exported to the US.
- Biorisks: A paper reports a method for genetically editing mosquitoes to make them resistant to malaria in a way that can be transmitted to subsequent generations, and a method for driving such mutations into mosquito populations. H5N1 continues to pose an ongoing risk.
- AI: The White House published an extensive AI Action Plan, which seeks to accelerate investment and buildout and espouses a framework of a race against China, while also recognizing some potential dangers from AI and including some recommendations for research on controllability and safety. Anthropic is embroiled in a new trial over pirating IP; forecasters assign a 68% chance that the case will reach a jury trial, and a 56% chance that $1.5B damages will be awarded conditional on losing a trial, but only a 1.1% chance that Anthropic will be out of business by the end of 2026 as a result of the trial.
- Gray swans: None detected this week.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Some items I'm looking at this week:
Geopolitics
Europe
Belarus threatens to shift Zapad-2025 military drills closer to NATO border
Spain participated in a Latvia NATO exercise.
Israel is accused of 'mass starvation' as 100 charities blast aid blockade: At least ten people 'die of malnutrition' in 24 hours
Gaza faces 'man-made' mass starvation due to Israeli aid blockade, World Health Organization says
Russia |launches| major military exercise 'july storm' in the Baltic Sea
Middle East
US looking into reports American citizen killed in Syria's Suwayda
Syria evacuates Bedouin from Druze-majority city
Iran
Donald Trump warns that US could strike Iran's nuclear sites again 'if necessary'
Iran says nuclear program will recover after US-Israel strikes
Iran says it will continue uranium enrichment despite U.S. strikes on nuclear facilities
Fires in Iran; Iran accussed Israel of sabotage
Gaza
Belgian King slams Gaza killings as 'disgrace to humanity' (ironic)
Asia
China starts construction of world’s biggest hydropower dam in Tibet; could dwarf Three Gorges Dam
China is acquiring high-end weapons systems and equipment 5–6X faster than the United States
Thailand |deploys fighter jets| as border clashes erupt with Cambodia
Tensions between Thailand and Cambodia have escalated following a significant military confrontation, where Thai fighter jets targeted Cambodian military| installations, representing one of the most serious conflicts in recent years. This escalation was precipitated by a prior incident in which a Thai soldier was injured by a landmine near the disputed border area, further straining relations that have long been marred by territorial disputes. Reports of direct clashes between troops from both nations and resulting civilian injuries have intensified fears of broader hostilities.
Thailand Deploys Fighter Jets as Border Clashes Erupt with Cambodia
Thai and Cambodian forces clash at border
Africa
Mozambican Opposition Leader Venancio Mondlane Charged Amid Tensions Over Post-Election Unrest – Medafrica Times
At least 1,000 people killed in a day South Sudan Ethnic Clashes
Cholera and other epidemics are side effects of endless war in Sudan
Mozambique seeks to prosecute opposition leader over post-election unrest
Bio
Scientists resurrected the 1918 “Spanish Flu” virus
Tech and AI
US nuclear weapons agency reportedly breached in Microsoft SharePoint attacks
Starlink is down
Chinese hackers breach US Nuclear Agency in Microsoft SharePoint cyberattack
NunoSempere
2mo ago
This looks like a really good piece, although we'll see what the commentariat comes up with. But, how would you feel about picking some of that to use on my Sentinel brief?
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Strongly in favor. In particular, if you become good at it it's a good chip to impress people with. I've also found it a good way to dump my need for cognition when needed.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Should have been https://www.chinatalk.media/p/xi-rumors , thanks
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Relatively quiet week this time:
Anthropic has a $200M contract with the US DoD , as have a few other companies
A good roundup of rumours about Xi
OpenAI agent
Israel bombs Syria
Africa records over 4,200 cholera, mpox deaths in 2025
Gunmen Kill 1,111 Nigerians, Abduct 276 in June
Syrian troops accused of executing civilians in Druze amid Israeli strikes
IDF Ordered To Strike Syrian Regime Forces Invading Druze-majority Suweida
Syria Druze reach ceasefire with central gov, though a previous one fell. Israel also fired on the central gov in Damascus
They have been negotiating with the Islamist-led authorities in Damascus since the fall of Bashar al-Assad in an attempt to achieve autonomy but have yet to reach an agreement that defines their relationship with the new Syrian state. ...reports The Guardian. Btw, the Spanish federal system, where the central government defines foreign policy, and some formerly rebellious provinces (the Basque country) don't pay federal taxes and have special priviledges (fueros) could be a good model here.
Almost 300 killed in wave of violence in Sudan's North Kordofan
Israeli-linked ringleaders and elements arrested in southwestern Iran, says Iran's news agency
Israel launches airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon's Bekaa valley
US demands to know what allies would do in event of war over Taiwan
NunoSempere
2mo ago
the ADIZ extends like a rectangle up into China proper
Thanks, I didn't know that!
NunoSempere
2mo ago
My impression is that the numbers you are mention... aren't that high; Israel is probably willing to spend many more of its own lives in this conflict.
For reference, if we adjust the 150K to 500K deaths[^1] from Russia's war in Ukraine from Russia's population of 143M to Israel's population of 9.757M, we get 10K to 34K, and remember that we are talking about deaths here. So there is room for a 10x here easily.
This doesn't really speak to your point of whether Hamas' fighting capabilities have been degraded. But Israel has been fighting a war with many fronts, in which Iran has been taken out of the picture, Hezbollah has been disabled in Lebanon. Recently the Israeli army claimed that they had operational control of 65% of Gaza, which is congruent with your perspective.
[^1]: Recent reports say 1M dead or injured, but use the confusing term "casualties" for this, to make it look bigger.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Some items I'm looking at this week:
OpenAI to release web browser
Nearly 700 civilians killed in Israeli attacks on Iran
The new Bangladeshi government has an audio recording of the previous leader, Sheikh Hasina, ordering her forces to use lethal force. They will use this in her trial.
Hamas gives 'positive' response to 60-day ceasefire proposal but says talks needed on implementation
Russia allegedly field-testing deadly AI drone powered by Nvidia Jetson Orin
Israel launches new ground incursion in Lebanon, raising fears for truce
Trump Ups Criticism Of Putin As He Releases Weapons, Considers Sanctions
No fewer than 500 Israelis killed in conflict with Iran — Iranian parliament speaker
Church leaders: It's time for Nigeria's Christians to defend themselves – Catholic World Report
Supreme court clears way for Trump to mass fire federal workers
Former Bangladesh police chief admits to crimes against humanity amid crackdown trial
Yemeni armed forces hit Ben Gurion airport, other Israeli targets with drones, missiles
Yemen's Ansarullah pledges sleepless nights for zionists after terrorist 'israeli' incursion
Gaza ceasefire talks begin in Qatar amid ongoing tensions
Iran president Masoud Pezeshkian says Israel attempted to assassinate him
Trump claimed victory against the Houthis in fight over Red Sea shipping. Now they are sinking tankers again
What to know as Yemen's Houthi rebels launch new attacks on ships in the Red Sea
Climate change made Europe's heatwave up to 4C hotter
Climate change tripled recent heat deaths in Europe, scientists say
North Korea quietly building chemical weapons for combat
China provided real-time intelligence to Pakistan during a recent conflict with India, according to India's Deputy Army Chief.
As bird flu evolves, keeping it out of farm flocks is getting harder
First round of indirect Israel-Hamas talks ends inconclusively, 'situation in Gaza likely remains grim for foreseeable future'
South Sudan's worst and longest cholera outbreak enters critical stage
India admits heavy losses in 'operation sindoor', to posthumously honour 100 soldiers
Iran Fatwa Fundraiser to Kill Donald Trump Raises Over $40 Million
[Iran International] |reported| that Mansour Emami, another cleric in Iran's West Azerbaijan Province, announced a reward of 100 billion tomans ($1.14 million) for anyone who killed Trump.
Israel defence minister plans to move Gaza's population to camp
Israel's Defence Minister has directed the military to devise a plan for relocating all Palestinians in Gaza to the southern territory, with plans for a 'humanitarian city' to accommodate around 600,000 initially, potentially growing to house the entire population. The relocation aims to secure the area against potential Hamas operatives, operating under a proposed ceasefire for construction. This proposal has been met with strong condemnation from human rights advocates and warnings from the UN regarding the legal implications of forcibly transferring civilians, which is classified as ethnic cleansing.
Iran's government says at least 1,060 people were killed in the war with Israel – The Frontier Post
Tribunal indicts Sheikh Hasina (in absentia)
Death Toll in Kenya's Anti-Government Protests Rises to 31
Haiti death toll hits nearly 5,000 in nine months as gang violence spreads
"Hong Kong citizens felt immensely proud visiting the Shandong aircraft carrier group."
The US military will test a "Joint War Zone Distribution Center" in Australia.
General Ronald Clark, Commander of the U.S. Army Pacific, announced during the 'Protector's Blade' exercise that the Army is testing a new logistics capability in Australia aimed at efficiently prepositioning equipment and supplies in the Pacific theater. This initiative supports the military's strategic readiness for potential long-term operations, focusing on establishing 'Joint Theater Distribution Centers' that can be crucial during military conflicts, humanitarian missions, or natural disasters.
These distribution centers are set to be established across the Pacific region, with the Army currently managing centers in the Philippines and Australia. The exercise, which involves around 35,000 troops from 19 countries, serves as a platform for developing logistics capabilities and testing the Army's new 'Mid-Range Capability' missile system, the 'Typhoon.' Clark highlighted the necessity of these centers to mitigate logistical challenges and emphasized their essential attributes, which include operational port capabilities and storage for various supplies.
Unusual USAF and Space Force Drills Near Taiwan
UN reports 798 deaths near Gaza aid hubs amid ongoing conflict
Hamas agrees to release 10 hostages during Gaza peace talks
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that it currently exercises operational control over 65 percent of the Gaza Strip.
European heatwave caused 2,300 deaths, scientists estimate
Europe's freak back-to-back heat-domes killed 2,300 in eight days with temperatures 'reaching 48C', study finds
NunoSempere
2mo ago
NunoSempere
2mo ago
This is a good bit, thanks :)
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Yeah, SMOC reversal seems like a proof of concept for AMOC reversal.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Here are some topics I'm looking at this week; as a draft of the Sentinel minutes. Curious to get thoughts.
Geopolitics
Americas
Bill Gates warns about the lives lost because of US aid cuts, though he relies on a study on The Lancet
USAID programs now being run by State Department as agency ends operations
Mr. Abrego's Account of Torture at CECOT in El Salvador
Europe
Russian use of chemical weapons against Ukraine 'widespread', Dutch defence minister says
613 killed at Gaza aid distribution sites, near humanitarian covoys, says UN
North Korea to send 30,000 more troops to help Russia fight Ukraine
Over 210,000 Russians signed contracts for war in Ukraine in first half of 2025, Moscow says
Middle East
Iran
United States expands military base in Saudi Arabia
A military base has been established by the U.S. near the Red Sea in Saudi Arabia, with construction beginning in early 2022. The base, known as the 'Jenkins Logistics Support Base,' has been quietly growing and is strategically located 30 kilometers from a significant Saudi port, suggesting preparations for a prolonged military conflict with Iran. Recent updates show substantial expansion since last year, including new buildings and enhanced security measures, alongside a continuous necessity for U.S. military supplies in response to escalating tensions in the region, such as Iran's attacks on military assets.
Iran Halts Cooperation with UN Nuclear Watchdog
US says its strikes degraded Iran's nuclear programme by one to two years
Iran president Pezeshkian reportedly orders to suspend cooperation with IAEA
US must rule out more strikes before talks can resume: Iran
US lawmakers seek to send B-2s, bunker busters to Israel if Iran takes nuclear path
Gaza
Gaza starvation killings: UN says deliberately shot hungry civilians
Gaza: Over 400 Palestinians killed around private aid hubs, UN rights office says
Hamas submits ‘positive response’ to ceasefire proposal in major step toward a deal
Donald Trump Says Israel Agrees to 60-Day Gaza Ceasefire
Yemen
Asia
Satellite evidence points to heightened operations at N. Korean nuclear site
North Korea's uranium refinery in Pyongsan has shown increased activity amidst ongoing efforts to strengthen its nuclear arsenal. Utilizing satellite imagery and thermal infrared analysis, recent findings indicate that operations at the facility have intensified, particularly at night, with the facility's waste management practices also experiencing notable changes. The site consists of three main zones: a uranium mine, a refining factory, and a settling pond for wastewater, all of which are reportedly well-fortified against potential air strikes, though concerns over their effectiveness persist.
Analysis reveals that the Pyongsan facility is the only operational uranium refinery in North Korea following the reported closure of another site in Pakchon. An uptick in wastewater release into the settling pond has been detected, raising environmental concerns ahead of the rainy season. Additionally, alarming reports of a mysterious illness affecting local workers and residents have prompted calls for a thorough investigation into the health impacts and environmental conditions surrounding the refinery.
India/Pakistan
Bangladesh tribunal hands 6-month jail term in first verdict against Hasina
Africa
Looming funding shortfall could reverse global progress against AIDS, warns UNAIDS chief
200 Christians killed in Nigeria by Fulani herdsmen
Suspected Boko Haram insurgents step up attacks in Nigeria
Congo, M23 rebels plan return to Qatar talks amid Trump pressure
Bio
Tech and AI
Global Economy
Early Fed chair nomination could rattle markets - Reuters
World Bank warns that 39 fragile states are falling further behind as conflicts grow, get deadlier
Misc
Reversal in ocean circulation
Major reversal in ocean circulation detected in the Southern Ocean
Two people perish in Spain's heatwave
NunoSempere
3mo ago
As an example, image sharing and videoconferencing are much faster & better. Slack is actually much better than IRC; it casually embeds a version of Skype just because. It allows for sharing images. Good threads.
NunoSempere
3mo ago
Some news items this week:
AI generated video might be directly optimizable for attention, in a way that is more scary than Tiktok
Statement from U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick on Transforming the U.S. AI Safety Institute into the Pro-Innovation, Pro-Science U.S. Center for AI Standards and Innovation
In conducting these evaluations, CAISI will focus on demonstrable risks, such as cybersecurity, biosecurity, and chemical weapons.
^ Sad day for black swans
AI required by court order to save logs?
Chinese couple charged with smuggling a biological pathogen into the U.S.
Floods in Nigeria kill over 150 people
Iran FM preparing response to potential nuclear agreement, holds call with IAEA head.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Rejects U.S. Nuclear Deal Offer
Interesting brief, similar to Sentinel
Israel strikes Syria after projectiles fired, holds Sharaa responsible
The spokesperson for China's Ministry of National Defense, Zhang Xiaogang, responded to recent comments made by the U.S. Secretary of Defense at the Shangri-La Dialogue, criticizing the U.S. for its negative portrayal of China and its military presence in Asia. Zhang condemned the U.S. for its hegemonic approach, inciting tensions in the region, and undermining China's sovereignty, particularly regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Zhang emphasized that the Taiwan issue is China's internal matter and warned against any U.S. interference. He asserted China's commitment to defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity, while also highlighting China's intent to resolve disputes peacefully in the South China Sea. The statement depicted China as a proponent of peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific, opposing any form of hegemonism that disrupts regional harmony.
China's 'Silent Hunter' laser gun shooting down Ukrainian drones
US Simulates Missile Strikes on Warships at China Choke Point
'Corpses rotting in the Nile' as cholera tears through Sudan – Dominican Republic Post
Sudan's New PM Dissolves Caretaker Government One Day After Taking Office
Death toll in Nigeria jumps past 200
Ukraine and Russia agree to swap dead, wounded troops but report no progress toward ending war
'Balochistan, KP remain epicentres as Pakistan records 85 attacks in May'
'New red line': India, Pak generals exchange warnings at Shangri-La
Al-Qaida affiliate attacks Mali army bases as junta struggles to contain jihadist threat
Indonesia's health ministry issues warning over COVID-19 surge in Asia
Niger Flood: Death toll rises to 150, Tinubu asks NEMA to activate Emergency Response Centre
Trump Asks Congress to Rescind $8.3 Billion in Foreign Assistance
Trump on Musk
Elon was "wearing thin," I asked him to leave, I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY!
Elon and Trump fighting
Who detected vaccine-derived polio in samples from children in Morobe (Papua New Guinea)
US vetoes UN Security Council demand for Gaza ceasefire
NB.1.8.1 covid variant
EpochAI database of datacenters
Whatever happened with this?
A nuclear strike on Britain is a real possibility. Here's what we need to do. Grr
NunoSempere
3mo ago
Most vaccine candidates against bird flu are reliant on fucking eggs for production. It's kind of a good idea to use mrna.
Oh noe.
NunoSempere
4mo ago
If living hostages could be divided up I'm sure they'd try that.
A 25% chance of giving back a hostage as decided by two fair coin throws by the Patriarch of Moscow
NunoSempere
4mo ago
Some headlines for discussion:
4 Palestinians die after the storming of a UN food warehouse in Gaza. A distribution center from a group that agreed to work with Israeli restrictions meant to prevent aid being diverted or controlled by Hamas was also overrun. The head of this later group also resigned
Iran may pause enrichment for a year and ship off its highly enriched uranium in exchange for the US to recognize its right to enrich uranium for its civilian energy program and unfreeze funds.
Israel receives new U.S.-backed Gaza truce proposal: state media-Xinhua
Malta announces plan to officially recognize Palestine
Cholera outbreak in Sudan kills 172 in one week
Amnesty says over 10,000 killed in two years in Nigeria
Trump used offers of trade access to broker India-Pakistan ceasefire, claims U.S. Commerce Secretary
Eric Schmidt warns against China bombing US datacenters
UK announces $1B investment in cyber warfare
Ethiopia reports first mpox case
Trump admin cancels $766M in funding for moderna.
NunoSempere
4mo ago
Thanks!
NunoSempere
4mo ago
Geopolitics
Americas
US launched its second ICBM test this year
Africa
Christians in Africa are being prosecuted somewhat systematically, particularly in northern Nigeria by Boko Haram. "In 2024 alone, over 4,500 Christians in 12 countries across the Sahel region were killed for their faith, 114,000 Christians forcibly displaced, 16,000 homes destroyed, and over 1,700 churches impacted"
Sudan's army chief names former UN official as new prime minister
U.S. will impose sanctions on Sudan for using chemical weapons
Middle East
Russia's Hmeimim airbase in Syria is under attack. I remember thinking that Lisa thought this was important
Iran
Israel 'preparing strike on Iran's nuclear facilities'
Oil prices rise on signs of faltering U.S.-Iran nuclear talks
U.S. media reports: Should U.S.-Iran nuclear talks fail, Israel is prepared to quickly strike Iranian nuclear facilities.
Gaza
14,000 babies could die in Gaza within 48 hours without aid: UN
Israel allowed some aid into Gaza
Britain, Canada, France condemn Israel's blocking of aid in Gaza, threaten sanctions
Gaza reports 326 malnutrition deaths, more than 300 miscarriages due to lack of essentials
New Gaza offensive
Yemen
Yemen's Houthis target Israel's Ben Gurion Airport, 3rd missile strike in 24 hours
Houthis declare naval blockade of Haifa port
Asia
China is integrating civil and military networks. "By connecting high-tech enterprises and facilitating data-driven collaborations, the platform accelerates the matching of military needs with available resources, resulting in timely and effective responses to various challenges. The platform features a comprehensive database that includes over ten thousand high-tech companies, hundreds of thousands of skilled personnel"
United States Develops "Orbital Aircraft Carriers" Endangering Space Safety, says China
Accelerate the building of China's independent military knowledge system. Another article in a similar vein as above.
China says ready to boost military-to-military ties with Russia
MEMRI warning about "China's Imminent Invasion Of Taiwan"
House Select Committee Warns: "The Window to Deter War with China is Closing Fast"
Oropuche virus rapidly spreading in Latin America; over 20K infected individuals ince late 2023
Riding the Waves! Full Throttle Live Fire Drill with Missile Speedboats
A squadron of missile boats from the Navy of the Eastern Theater Command has recently engaged in a comprehensive live-fire training exercise. This high-intensity session included a variety of drills such as maritime search and rescue operations, fleet patrols, and missile attack simulations, all aimed at enhancing the operational combat skills of the soldiers involved.
The training took place around the clock and involved multi-subject scenarios, systematically validating and improving the readiness of the naval forces for potential maritime combat situations.
India/Pakistan
3/4th of India's population at 'high' to 'very high' heat risk: CEEW study
Airlines Prepare for Nuclear War
Europe
Poland intervenes after Russian 'shadow fleet' ship detected near Baltic Sea cable
Russia stops Greek tanker leaving Estonia in tit-for-tat Baltic move
Bio
A paper in Nature looks at an outbreak of multidrug-resistant dysentery from 2021 to 2023 in Mexico
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called for increased American involvement and support for the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led administration in Syria to prevent its potential collapse
Study shows that the 2022 mpox outbreak started in 2014
Tech and AI
xAI’s Grok 3 comes to Microsoft Azure
VEO 3 generates some pretty nifty videos
veo3 is a new model by Google that is able to create convincing (and addictive) video
Misc
Chances of a mega-tsunami hitting California about 15% over the next 50 years?
Also covered here
Briefing to the UN on the state of the protection of civilians in armed conflict
Netanyahu press conference
I think you are empirically wrong on this. E.g., if you go to one of the most upvoted such essays you will see my comment at the top. But it's been a while. Maybe there is much that I have forgotten.
More options
Context Copy link