NunoSempere
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User ID: 1101
NunoSempere
2yr ago
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Heads up that I couldn't log in with my normal username and password.
NunoSempere
2yr ago
virtually nobody has ever done this before
A similar proposal I've heard of is recursive prediction markets. E.g,. you hold a prediction market on what the probability another prediction market will/would assign when asked what the chance that a researcher spending a lot of time on a topic would conclude. I did some early work on this here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cLtdcxu9E4noRSons/part-1-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting-models and here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FeE9nR7RPZrLtsYzD/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting, and in general there is some work on this under the name "amplification".
NunoSempere
2yr ago
This could be solved by offering bets. In particular, Insight Prediction has a bunch of liquid markets: https://insightprediction.com/c/5/russia-ukraine
NunoSempere
2yr ago
Neat piece, thanks for writing it.
NunoSempere
2yr ago
which means few have any idea
...which means that questions were selected for being uncertaint
I have yet to see anyone who can do it well
maybe you're not hanging out in the right places
NunoSempere
2yr ago
How would one go about using this?
Yeah. To reply to the first part, my answer to that is to realize that knowledge is valuable insofar as it changes decisions, and to try to generate knowledge that changes decisions that are important. YMMV.
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