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16d ago
I thought it included people outside of the navy.
When I Google it the definition I get is navy, commercial, and even recreational. So I believe it’s not limited to just military person.
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16d ago
Pinochet is one of my favorite politicians so I have no fundamental issue with doing that when necessary, though in a way that limits life losts. It’s a reasonable response to present things like communism.
Which I will remind you was backed by the US and the government was being ran by the University of Chicago at the time.
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16d ago
Stock and Flow do matter.
As far as I can tell Mexico has a largely unified Mexican Culture and assimilation of their ethnic groups has occurred. By global standards it’s a fairly wealthy country helped by closeness to the US. It’s also a low-trusts society. It’s a very common story to be robbed by the police in Mexico which does not happen anywhere else that has their level of wealth. Most of the US black population is unassimilated. Brazil has a culture but the stock still leads to dysfunctional politics.
Flow arguments do matter at times like with the Italians who eventually assimilated, but stock arguments also matter when assimilation between different ethnic groups is impossible.
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16d ago
The issue I have with this is the Chesterton Fence you propose has not historically existed. Remigration has happened many times in history. It’s often happened more often during war times but it has happened a lot in history. The Reconquista of Spain occurred. Haiti did it. Israel is basically doing it today. It was debated as a solution posts civil war. White Flight in America was basically forced migration.
Usually populations combining are fairly rare and only happen during conquests. Mass migration has only really happened to western civilizations over the last 30 years. Every other mass migration like Spanish to Americas or Normans to England happened during war times.
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16d ago
Some of the issues with the right never doing anything I think comes down to the US believing in Adam Smiths invisible hand and not state power.
The US administration has lowered foreign born population by a few million people for the first time in I believe a century we have had a decline.
For a system that believes in the private sector this is still impressive. It’s much easier for an activists to go to let’s say George Soros and raise a few billion dollars to start a ngo that operates in Central America to abuse immigration loopholes to get people in than it is for the federal government to deport millions. You can’t go to the Koch Brothers and raise a few billion to deport people privately for various reasons. Even ardent anti-immigrationists would see giving the Feds the power to check papers and deport on site as an evil infringement on their own rights though potentially a necessary evil.
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16d ago
I did use sailor a few times too. One issue with the use sailor is it does not have specificity that they are fighting men. Soldier is specifically fighting men.
I probably would have considered sailor as a type of soldier but sailor can also refer to people who are not fighting men.
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16d ago
I think it’s in the category of a civil right.
The confusion may be thinking in the of an American Declaration of Independence idea of a right coming from God and is guaranteed.
We’ve pretty much have fought over colliding “rights” for centuries in the court.
Personally I like the fact I have a nearly universal right in my current position to throw a dart and a map and I could pretty much go there in a month or two. Not every other human has the right.
Life is not fair. Rights aren’t universal things everyone gets but we still use that terminology of calling them rights.
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17d ago
I’ve for a few years realize I hate labels like far-right or moderate. Those terms are extremely dependent on time and place. Many mainstream Democratic positions were considered crazy when I was growing up. Like basically on the crazy spectrum (Tran stuff) that would be straight to jail and had like 2% support. There are two ways for a party to not be far right. Change positions or move the Overton window. When you getting 42% of the vote then even for time and place your close to the center. One more surge in popularity and AFD is basically centrists.
And probably currently centrists for native Germans.
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17d ago
Honestly feels like conventional wisdom now. Everyone I talk to thinks oil is a short. It’s just a timing issue on when you do it.
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18d ago
Ya two people mentioned the lady boys. But honestly I thought this was also known for loose women.
I got pagan vibes of soldiers having a lot of sexual conquests/rape posts war. Which is the bit of culture war here. At times it seems like the modern right is moving in a pagan direction and the modern left feels like a posts-Christian but still Christian cult.
The USS Lincoln is currently in Thailand after 9 months at sea. My small question on this is whether Thailand just made logistical sense to stop in or is this basically Hegseth deciding to dump 5k sailors in Thailand and its world renowned red-light district and therefore sort of culture war. I don’t think I could see a Dem administration doing the same thing because it’s basically asking for “toxic masculinity” behavior.
I am curious what the total party tab would be. 5k sailors with all their pay saved up for 9 months. $4k average spend sound right? Or $20 million. I guess burning man is going on right now but if I was choosing a party right now I think I’d go with Thailand and 5k soldiers who haven’t been off a boat for 9 months as the more lit party to attend.
A lot of the pro-immigration people act like it is a moral thing so I respect that you don’t think it’s moral.
I guess I’m an urbanist. Which is sort of a blue tribe personality trait. Demographically and where I grew up I would be predicted to be very red tribe but my preferences are very blue tribe.-
I do think one of the strongest arguments against immigration is Americas inability to build middle class urban environments. Americas preference for building suburbs in my view is based on a strong preference not to live in diverse environments. I guess one could say blacks are special and prone to having unacceptable levels of violence and new immigrants are fine. That is kind of a justifiable view. But while we just had a huge immigration wave our biggest cities didn’t build more housing and make it work but instead had out migration of natives. So my opinion is if blue tribe wants me to accept mass migration then they need to show me they can run a multicultural city that doesn’t result in mass out migration of natives.
A lot of my anti-immigration views can boil down why doesn’t America have cities. Because I like living in cities.
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21d ago
High TIPs spread is one reason I’m recommending owning bonds is ok.
Fundamentally I’m a mean reversion guy. I’ve always traded that way. The trick with having that trading personality is I guess having a fundamental understanding and being right more times than wrong that it’s value. And my gut is rates are value here and not fucked. And duration can offer significant upside.
I honestly love US 30’s now. I’ve been seeing 2 possible medium term outcomes proposed: (1). AI is real and is a huge productivity boom causing mass unemployment. Deflationary. Likely causing rates to fall (2) it does not do that. Or something in between. Capex buildup for AI falls. Lower demand because that’s removed and is deflationary. Rates fall.
I also think big tech or some of the names after a recent dip are reasonable. And a friend asked me what would I want to hold thinking 9 months out. If I had to be long or short big tech I would choose long. But also the same with 30’s. And if rates fall you actually get very good appreciation in long term bonds too. 100 bps fall in yields will get you 15-20% price appreciation plus the yield
Back to big tech. If I couldn’t trade for a year I would own it. My current portfolio is approximately is about 25% long 30s, 40% cash, 35% equities. A lot of trading in between but overall those ratios I’ve been maintaining the last month. If I couldn’t trade for 9 months I would deploy a lot to Amazon and Google since I like their price better now. And a few random names I follow. And probably increase the 30 year exposure from 25 to 35%. I would have zero cash on a 9 month hold. That’s there to hopefully find better opportunities next few months.
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21d ago
But why? What’s in it for me?
You are right red and blue tribe are not united enough to even try forced assimilation. I still think it would often fail due to personality differences.
Every time we do mass migration in the US we see massive outmigration of the native population from desirable locations. Many call this white flight. We now have zero urban environments in the US for middle class natives.
When the great migration occurred it eventually led to white flight thru out all of the rust belt cities. They left because the schools collapsed and their kids were being bullied in their communities. Crime rose. Which led to the birth of the suburbs and policy to keep land values expensive.
Recently LA and NYC have seen a new wave of white flight. Sure we can say this is due to blue tribe governance making housing and taxes unaffordable for the middle class. Regardless, immigration came to these cities and politically governance changed. I am personally a victim of the crime to white flight thing. It sucks. But not as much as staying and waking up to police marking bullets in the morning. Most of the people fleeing NY and Cali do not share my politics. They just left because the areas got worse and the financial mature sense to leave.
And you talk about the red tribe-blue tribe divorce. In reality with only the white vote we would have the power to do forced assimilation. I saw data that Trump would still win the election if only white females voted. But that’s not our electorate anymore. But I will emphasize I don’t believe forced assimilation would work due to genetic personality differences.
I understand why immigrants want to come here. I don’t hate them. It just makes my life worse.
So I will asks you what is in it for me?
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22d ago
I’m sorry but what groups did I claim successfully assimilated into America? I see I claimed a few Indians became American. S Africans I’m claiming were Americans before they came to America - both culturally and genetically. And actually more American than post Ellis Island Americans. Their Englishmen who left England. Musks/Thiel are ethnically Anglos. They are both more Heritage American than my Ellis Island Wave Heritage.
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22d ago
All of those routes seem like opting-out. Haha. It leads to a cheaper lifestyle but limits you to basically making money online. I do think those routes have some of the same characteristics but their limitations are also why I proposed move to Texas as the new frontier which obviously has its own limitations but also can fulfill career ambition.
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23d ago
What’s the closest thing to the new west today? Texas?
I honestly rate S Africans as the most American and in many ways more American than the current native population as pure Anglos who also left. Thiel/Musks easily fit in. I don’t think I would want mass migration from Europe today as we’ve likely already selected out the quintessential American personalities from their population; whatever was left likely mostly died out in the World Wars.
It will be interesting if posts Berlin Wall coming down slavics ever show that characteristics. We have some big winners in the Google founders but they don’t seem to have that same personality as the two big S Africans Thiel/Musks.
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23d ago
@Tanista “it doesn’t matter what immigrants think……various pro social things if they are forced to by the populace”
I feel like this is wrong. I guess you can somewhat force them to learn to say American values but it’s probably impossible for them to adopt American culture in the inner monologue.
Most here I think would accept an HBD argument that evolution doesn’t stop at the neck down. And things like ability to do algebra in your head have significant differences. But I also believe evolution doesn’t stop at your ability to be a human calculator in your head but have significant personality trait differences.
For example the Japanese seem to be very pro-social in a lot of ways. And they are largely smart so many would think they would be ideal immigrants. But the Japanese also seem to have a personality trait that is very conformists. When the leader says Japanese now do things “X” way the whole society seems to instantly become super “X”. It’s why they could be a closed society then within a generation open to the world and become a global power quickly. It’s in their long hour work culture. It’s why they could blow the biggest real estate bubble the world has ever seen. It’s why when they did deflation they did it very well after the big inflation bubble. It’s seems like when Japanese society decides to do a thing they do it extremely well.
Supposedly this has something to do with growing rice and rice growing versus European agriculture required a lot more conformity. Hence this personality trait is very strong in Asians. And why many Asian 20 something’s took to woke very quickly when it became the dominant societal power.
Americans are not this. We traditionally have a big contrarian and rebellious streak. Genetically I came across something called the Wanderlust gene and you can find it at high rates in Americans of European descent versus the population groups they came from in Europe. In the past going to America was a big trip. Crazy for true Heritage Americans and basically guaranteed to be a one way trip for the economic means of most of them. For the Ellis Island wave it was still a huge step. For modern immigrants it’s basically trivial and can be reversed with a 1k flight. There would still be some selection for this personality trait but far less.
If culture has a hereditary basis then cultural assimilation isn’t going to happen. I am assuming culture is a combination of innate personality + your art/constutition/great works etc.
The one conclusion I’ve had from this is that some of the early waves of Indians seem to have 100% assimilated and the filters we had on Indian immigration then were perfect. Nikki Haley’s kids are barely distinguishable from an old money Southern Boy. Indians are largely hated today as immigrants and I have no idea on them as the filters and ease to get in were relaxed.
Personality I believe has a genetic component. And if it’s genetic then assimilation isn’t just forcing people to learn your memes and words.
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25d ago
I think this is mostly just a rhetorical adjustment. Liberal arguments just work much better within a western cultural worldview which basically everyone in America has adopted. Traditional arguments do not play well on message boards or in conversations. Enter the Chud or the anti-suicidal empathy guy that just doesn’t care about proper debate form.
I’ve come to a conclusion that traditional viewpoints often just work in society.
Chud is basically the rhetorically trick you use when a lefty accuses you over being a Nazi. “Fine whatever I am the Chud”.
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26d ago
Agree. But I still think I’m indicating for internally motivated people there is still a higher level of motivation. Everyone who shows up to play basketball is motivated. But when there are too many people and losing means sitting people play harder. Honestly feel like Boeing probably hired the same MIT engineers as Musks but Boeing doesn’t quite pressure people like Musks and he gets people to a higher level.
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26d ago
California use to be Republican. But they let in a lot of immigrants who voted against your interest.
I have a basketball game in Miami. Sometimes I complain on group chat waits are too long. Usually we have too many people and the waits are long. And it’s a public court so have to let kids or bad people have their next. It’s August and hot so maybe why but we end up getting just enough players to play a game right now.
It’s nice because you show up and know you will play. But it’s not the same as when you have a lot of people and if you lose you probably have to wait 30-60 min to get back on. People play differently when there is a penalty for losing. They play harder.
I guess I’m posting this because there is a broader societal thing. If losing your job is homeless (having to wait 45 min to play again) you will work extremely hard. But it’s probably best an in between where you have a lot of motivation but not quite homeless if you lose.
It’s one thing I love about team sports culture and it’s that there are often lessons for real life.
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28d ago
Just to be clear this is what you get with regards to law and order when you let in people who claim to “follow your values” but don’t.
https://x.com/wong_guey/status/2093049959352561897?s=46
And then they vote. So you end up getting two tiered systems. Heavily regulated legal food. Heavily unregulated street vendors that the city won’t enforce laws on. Like we’ve done your system in California. And now we have this.
It’s really tough to write legislation that can’t be interpreted in a way that creates loopholes. I feel like you need something else to keep things like asylum from being abused. Especially since you kind of want asylum law to be broad enough to be useful in an emergency.
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