Pasha
Defend Kebab
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User ID: 481
Pasha
Defend Kebab
3d ago
Wasn’t physical crude trading at 140$ just couple weeks ago? Not that I would speculate a serious amount of money into this, but Trump so far hasn’t proven entirely able to TACO even though he obviously really wants to. Iran and Israel have a big say in the events to come and both have strong hardliner factions which favour more escalation. It wouldn’t be an entirely unreasonable bet into an escalation spiral.
Pasha
Defend Kebab
3d ago
Pakistan throwing missiles at ships crossing the Strait wouldn’t change the strategic calculations at all for India, and Pakistan would immediately collapse under the retaliation of the countries annoyed at its actions. So no, Pakistan doesn’t control the strait.
Iran forced the US military into an unfavourable ceasefire and now seems to be even coercing a peace treaty by doing the same, and so far they seem to be taking the punishment fine. So yes Iran is obviously the country with by far the most control of the Strait.
Pasha
Defend Kebab
4d ago
I have assumed things would get pretty bad when the amount of US military hardware moving to the region made this very unlikely to be a dud. So I did the reasonable thing and leveraged into some crude oil futures. So far I have been proven mostly correct in this with some decent profit, but not as much as I expected. I cashed in a bit but mostly HODLING to the moon because I believe even though Trump has realized he has massively fucked up, Iranians will not let this opportunity go so easily and they are a bit too high on their own supply, and the Israel state/lobby is going to do everything it can do to drag this into a bigger war.
To answer your actual question, no I don't think Trump is crazy enough to do that, but he seemingly might be stupid enough to do it anyway. Simply the strait staying shut for months without major fighting would be really really bad already. But things can escalate to a massive catastrophe if shooting starts again and oil infra is really blown up. So far it was mostly warning shots.
Also it is hilariously pathetic to start a war and kill half the leadership of a country in a rather treacherous way under cover of negotiations, only to start moaning about international law and "economic fallout is actually their fault" when they retaliate in the most predictable ways. I must admit I did not realize just that American right wingers are this idiotic, as I was too young during all the Bush years. These people really deserve what they will get in a couple years.
P.S. if you want to force yourself to learn and monitor the shit out of some topic, nothing like betting a modest amount of money in it. I have no idea how people can sleep at night with million dollar positions.
What are these military options in your view? Are you talking about a land invasion?
I just cannot see how, in the case of a US military operation forceful enough to actually stop the blockade or break down the Iranian state, Iranians would not missile spam every single Gulf oil field so it does not even make sense to ship anything through the Strait anymore.
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