Pasha
Defend Kebab
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User ID: 481
Pasha
Defend Kebab
2d ago
Wasn’t physical crude trading at 140$ just couple weeks ago? Not that I would speculate a serious amount of money into this, but Trump so far hasn’t proven entirely able to TACO even though he obviously really wants to. Iran and Israel have a big say in the events to come and both have strong hardliner factions which favour more escalation. It wouldn’t be an entirely unreasonable bet into an escalation spiral.
Pasha
Defend Kebab
2d ago
Pakistan throwing missiles at ships crossing the Strait wouldn’t change the strategic calculations at all for India, and Pakistan would immediately collapse under the retaliation of the countries annoyed at its actions. So no, Pakistan doesn’t control the strait.
Iran forced the US military into an unfavourable ceasefire and now seems to be even coercing a peace treaty by doing the same, and so far they seem to be taking the punishment fine. So yes Iran is obviously the country with by far the most control of the Strait.
Pasha
Defend Kebab
3d ago
I have assumed things would get pretty bad when the amount of US military hardware moving to the region made this very unlikely to be a dud. So I did the reasonable thing and leveraged into some crude oil futures. So far I have been proven mostly correct in this with some decent profit, but not as much as I expected. I cashed in a bit but mostly HODLING to the moon because I believe even though Trump has realized he has massively fucked up, Iranians will not let this opportunity go so easily and they are a bit too high on their own supply, and the Israel state/lobby is going to do everything it can do to drag this into a bigger war.
To answer your actual question, no I don't think Trump is crazy enough to do that, but he seemingly might be stupid enough to do it anyway. Simply the strait staying shut for months without major fighting would be really really bad already. But things can escalate to a massive catastrophe if shooting starts again and oil infra is really blown up. So far it was mostly warning shots.
Also it is hilariously pathetic to start a war and kill half the leadership of a country in a rather treacherous way under cover of negotiations, only to start moaning about international law and "economic fallout is actually their fault" when they retaliate in the most predictable ways. I must admit I did not realize just that American right wingers are this idiotic, as I was too young during all the Bush years. These people really deserve what they will get in a couple years.
P.S. if you want to force yourself to learn and monitor the shit out of some topic, nothing like betting a modest amount of money in it. I have no idea how people can sleep at night with million dollar positions.
Pasha
Defend Kebab
28d ago
No the obvious conclusion is that all those US forward bases are utterly useless in a real war and they are practically out of AD and standoff munition with no way to manufacture more. Hence: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/on-rare-china-visit-taiwans-opposition-leader-calls-for-reconciliation
Pasha
Defend Kebab
28d ago
Thanks I stand corrected. There is evidence of 1 bombing. I hope the army command will hear this news soon and not empty East Asia of all its standoff ammunition.
Pasha
Defend Kebab
28d ago
I think the closure of the strait is rather exaggerated. The real threat is Iran quite clearly being able to blow up the fields/refineries/pipelines/ports themselves in a way that would leave the strait rather unimportant. By closing the strait they just got to demonstrate how quickly they can do incredible damage without anything irreversible.
Pasha
Defend Kebab
28d ago
The US military has caused vastly more destruction to the Iranian leadership and military than the Iranian military has caused to the US leadership and military
Is there some mind virus affecting Americans that cause them to lose every single war since Vietnam in the same way? The point of a military is not to masturbate over KD ratios it’s to achieve strategic and ultimately political objectives. You can kill a lot of people and if you are still losing nobody gives a shit.
US left its bases because they are getting blown the fuck up every single day with no functional AD and radar left after about the first week. In an “existential war” they could indeed try to maintain those bases with gigantic casualties but that’s hardly a consolation is it?
Pasha
Defend Kebab
28d ago
This link has a couple photos of planes loading JDAMs in UK airbases. No evidence that they are actually flying over Iran with it.
Given that by far the most bombing has been concentrated in coastal areas it’s quite possible that they have some corridors that doesn’t need standoff munitions. This was reported yesterday by the way: https://asiatimes.com/2026/04/us-diverts-jassm-er-missiles-to-iran-risking-deterrence-vs-china/
Whenever there is a big bombing run near Iranian cities we get a decent amount of photos/videos.
This is such a brain dead analysis. What’s the US military “dominating” exactly? What did they achieve after a whole month apart from killing a bunch of useless geriatrics? Every single US base in the region is either abandoned or is operating under routine fire and losing planes on the ground daily. The aircraft carriers are hiding behind the landmass of Oman and Saudi Arabia. Regime change is obviously not coming. Kurds are not rebelling. I have not seen any evidence at all that American bombers can operate over Iran without resorting to standoff ammunition (or well, getting shut down). Fantastically expensive and limited weapon systems for all of this nonsense is mainly being transferred from Asia-Pacific.
Unless Trump can pull off some incredible feat of deal making/chickening out and salesmanship, this is turning into one of the most spectacular military quagmires in modern history. The only consolidation will be that there won’t even be an option of US fighting China anymore so the world might become a safer place for it.
Edit: welp the whole discussion became quickly moot as team domination and lethality once again just gave up, seemingly bored of dominating. I thought I could stop having this idiotic discussions when the exact same thing happened in Bab el Mandeb pretty recently but not so lucky yet. Looking forward to the next round of domination
What are these military options in your view? Are you talking about a land invasion?
I just cannot see how, in the case of a US military operation forceful enough to actually stop the blockade or break down the Iranian state, Iranians would not missile spam every single Gulf oil field so it does not even make sense to ship anything through the Strait anymore.
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