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What I find most interesting about the current Israel - Iran conflict isn't necessarily a lot of the geopolitical implications / consequences (although of course they are important), but instead the way the war is being waged. It seems, so far as I can tell, that they are almost entirely "trading missile strikes" and that no boots are on the ground, there isn't even really much of a naval component. Just missile centers in cities or in the desert shooting at one another, causing damage that, from a citizen's POV, is essentially random.
I know that the World Wars were considered horrible because death in combat felt so random due to bombings, machine guns, etc. Are we now entering a new stage of warfare where soldiers are barely even involved, and we just shoot missiles at each others population centers, trying to decapitate the enemy leadership?
On the one hand, it's certainly... cleaner, I suppose? Much better than the horrid conditions of trench warfare during the World Wars, at least based on what I've read about it. Still though, it feels extremely cold and random, disconnected from the perspective of the average person.
Then again, the whole war in the Ukraine is very much boots on the ground, even if drones are heavily involved. I'm not sure (obviously) exactly how the future of war will develop, but we are certainly seeing interesting new innovations as of late. And we have barely even scratched the surface of using AI in warfare!
What are your best predictions for how future warfare will develop?
Iran and Israel is a special case because they can't reach each other to invade (and if Israel could, they don't have the manpower). And Israel probably isn't trying to decapitate; they're probably not trying to topple the regime (which would lead at best to chaos), but incapacitate it technically. Israel and Gaza is probably a better view of what it looks like when one side is totally outclassed. And Ukraine/Russia for near-peer fights. Total war, WWII style, is still off the table because of the nuclear spectre; a fight between China and the US seems like the only way to get that in the near term, but it will look different than any of the current conflicts because it will be far more about naval forces at least at first.
Israel is absolutely trying to topple the regime, Netenyahu has made this very clear. Reporting is that Israel had a window to assassinate the Ayatollah but was vetoed by Trump, with Israelis claiming it would end the conflict. Trading missile blows was never going to achieve either of Israel's war objectives directly, but escalating to this point forces the hand of the United States to achieve those objectives on behalf of Israel including toppling the regime.
It's going to follow the model of Libya and Syria, with bombing campaigns coincided with arming and fomenting a civil war in Iran. Toppling the regime is without question the goal of Israel, but it remains to be seen if the US is on board with that.
I am all on board if this can lead to united Kurdistan. Erbil is probably the only good place to live in the region.
That is a very strange assertion to me. Why is Erbil a nice place to live? What does "uniting" Kurdistan achieve for you?
Fixes one of the greatest injustices in the post ottoman collapse. Erbil is absolutely great. It is the safest place with kindest people in all of the arab peninsula and Iran. It is pro western, really peaceful and have the best kebabs. United Kurdistan will create a strong center in the region that will be pro west and will weaken simultaneously Iran, Syria, Iraq and Turkey. And until Erdogan and his faction are in power everything that weakens Turkey is unadulterated good. If the secular people come in power it will be different, but so far it is long shot.
There are many (much much greater) injustices in the Ottoman collapse and many people who constantly try to “fix” them. You see them often standing trial in The Hague or topping CIA most-wanted lists for crimes against humanity. Kurds didn’t get a state because they are a loose combination of mountain tribes who speak a somewhat similar language to each other with zero history of having a state or associating with each other politically. It’s not a coincidence any Kurdish political group immediately becomes a proxy servant for a larger state.
Speaking of proxy politics, did you ever actually wonder why Iraqi Kurdistan is a relatively stable safe and prospering place? Would you mind googling a bit about the Turkish military bases (136 of them according to BBC) in the country providing this security or how much of their economy is based on trade and investment from Turkey or how Iraqi Kurdish politics actually manage to stay stable? (Hint: it’s totally controlled by two clans which are both Turkish state proxies and compete/rotate for offices peacefully via negotiations with Turkish foreign ministry)
I understand you have some personal grudges against Turkey and Iran but how much more do Syria and Iraq need to be weakened for this great pro-western Middle East to emerge in your imagination? Have you by chance checked any news since year 1999?
What are these “secular people” in Turkey going to do once in power to please you? Can you give me some examples of how Turkey is a more Islamic country today than in 2001? Also I am looking forward to some examples of any Islamitising influence out of Turkey that caused anyone ever any trouble. Somehow Sunni jihadi movement is entirely funded and armed and manned by the Saudi and Qatar, both hardcore American allies/clients, but the grand strategies for fighting it never involve fixing any great injustices in those countries
Edit: yeah kebabs are good but they are good literally everywhere. Is Erbil the only place you ever visited in the Middle East or something?
Hagia Sophia. Erdogan keeping interest rates low during could also fall under this but I have a suspicion that he used it so his allies can inflate their debts and buy bankrupts business for cents on the dollar.
Committing to hardline Kemalism. Again. So we can finally accept Turkey in the EU. Before saying something - I don't believe in freedom of religion, but in freedom from religion.
Hmm... here is quick shawarma/kebab comparison from the places I have been. We don't discuss in europe because it is mediocre at best. And in north africa I don't have much impressions. Aside from Erbil - in Istanbul they are meh, in Ankara are really good, ditto in Ismir, bland un Dubai, forgettable in Oman, let's not talk about pakistan, surprisingly decent are the afghani ones, but probably the best are in Uzbekistan. The kazah one i ate them from the other side of the border with china - so can't comment. Lahmacuns, kunefe, gozleme and pide are other beer - the only place in the world they make them right is in Turkey (everywhere).
Turkey is too powerful and Erdogan is eyeing parts of the Balkans and probably Cyprus. So I either want the country to be weaken or to self secularize. I also don't want pro western middle east - weak and busy with infighting also gets the job done. Greece is too weak to be counter balance, so is Bulgaria. And I doubt that NATO will do shit if he attacks any one of those two countries.
So yes. I want Turkey to have problems east and south, as to not look north and east
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