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Pasha

Defend Kebab

1 follower   follows 1 user  
joined 2022 September 05 06:58:22 UTC

				

User ID: 481

Pasha

Defend Kebab

1 follower   follows 1 user   joined 2022 September 05 06:58:22 UTC

					

No bio...


					

User ID: 481

I like going to Rust events and trying to guess if someone is a very ugly woman or a tranny. Usually the second

“I refuse to entertain the subtleties of life because some people some time ago came up with some legal principles on which I shall base my entire thought process” isn’t a very good jumping point for a conversation or deliberation. But you do you

I agree wholeheartedly. Except that I don't believe it was meant to be a war of expansion but simply an instigation to a coup to install a pre-2014 style government to Ukraine and stop Ukrainian attacks on Donbas from being a headache on the Russian government who couldn't care less about the Donbas population but cannot let them get crushed either. Since then they are improvising rather poorly and had to annex the occupied territories as a sign of commitment.

think I see some "citation needed" here.

There is no great mystery here. Russian conventional army is very mediocre because they are spending enormous amounts of their military budget (which isn't even that high) keeping up with the latest nuclear capabilities and missile delivery systems.

"Where is the Russian Air Force?" has been the millionbillion-ruble question in this whole war.

Yeah but no, again there is no great mystery. Their air assets were definitely present early in the war when they expected a quick victory with a small force. But Russian Air Force is small, and is not really fit for fighting against capable air defense. That is what happens when you have a limited military budget and spend it on very expensive nuclear systems. None of this was unknown.

Pre-war, every serious defense analyst I could find expected them to systematically dismantle Ukraine in something that looked like the US Gulf War 1

Because they expected an invasion with near full power of the Russian army rolling across the border. This is not the invasion that actually took place and so what is the point of taking attrition to your valuable air assets when it is not going to accomplish anything because the army is not suited for it?

Is the argument here that the US was upholding some important international norm when they kept ridiculous corrupt occupation governments in Iraq and Afghanistan for decades to the great detriment of their populations, and then left them as smoldering ruins refusing to take any responsibility?

Many observers in important positions around the World deducted from these events that American leaders don't give a shit about any of their rhetoric, are short-sighted, unreliable, agreement-incapable and live in their own media narrative where they are always right in the end. They will make up norms when it suits them and adjust them mid-game if it doesn't suit them anymore.

Unfortunately I believe Ukrainians are due to discover this as well after sacrificing their youth and their relations with their only important neighbor for drip-fed fickle promises.

when its northern border with Russia is reinforced on both sides and makes raids impossible

Were those raids ever anything other than PR for Western media and Ukrainian domestic jingoism? They generate lots of media attention and allows headlines in Europe to the tune of "partisans advancing into Moscow" which are always useful as average normie has lost all interest in the war other than seeing the occasional headline.

What does this add to the conversation?

The US is giving everything Israel demands and more. What can one accuse Biden of not doing to help Israel?

Also an unknown but likely substantial numbers of those hostages have died/will die due to Israeli bombardment and starvation. It might backfire big time if some documents end up leaked tying IDF action to deaths of American passport holding hostages.

The guy just reads like a fitness influencer for nerds

This is such a strange take. The US set up client states in Jordan and Egypt to stop them from attacking Israel. It finances half the Lebanese political factions for this purpose (and even Hezbollah!). The entire Iraq war (2-3 TRILLION dollars depending on calculation methods) realistically had no other purpose than to eliminate a regime Israel wanted gone. It still stations around 30.000 soldiers around Middle East, with realistically no other purpose than to deter anyone who might want to mess with Israel. Almost any random deal US sponsors around the world will include some small ridiculous clauses to give Israel a bit more diplomatic legitimacy. US is unable to normalize relations with Iran, even though this would make a great amount of geopolitical sense, because Israel doesn't want it.

The list can go on and on. And I am not getting into items like the French giving Israel nuclear arms technology or massive sums of blood money West Germany paid for Israel's industrialization.

The 3 billion direct military aid is absolutely nothing compared to what America and Europe actually provides to Israel.

So no advantage at all as you admit this was a “vague possibility” for a while and nothing more. And Taiwan was supposed to make a mortal enemy of their only geographic neighbour and the source of a great deal of its wealth, for this? That they would possibly voluntarily join PRC?

I am sorry but what you are saying doesn’t make any sense at all.

I think that keeping the war going is a way to avoid Putin's regime failing militarily as well as in other respects.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/06/03/the-only-thing-worse-than-war-is-losing-one

I think most Russians are convinced (imo rightly) that their fate will be closer to Germans after WW1 instead of Germans after WW2 if they lose. I would wager that there are a lot more people who support fighting to victory now compared to before the war, so Putin's regime doesn't have much of a choice.

Mind you, even so, that Dutch houses tend to be a good deal smaller than detached American suburban houses are

I feel like the Netherlands at least compensates by having safe streets/parks almost everywhere that the average kid can play without supervision. I always had the feeling that this matters even more and large houses are just a compensation tool if kids cannot be outside on their own because of crime/dangerous roads/it is literally illegal.

Either this, or the offensive start was politically mandated and the Ukrainian army in the field cannot actually perform at the level of competency needed to dislodge a prepared enemy with air superiority and equal manpower.

The thing I wonder them most is whether the Ukrainians have an effective solution to the Russian air assets. Videos of attack helicopters hovering at 10km range way behind the Russian lines and away from Ukrainian anti-air and hunting Ukrainian armor are everywhere and harrowing.

They benefit by deflecting from their social, economic, foreign policy, and military failures.

I really don't get this vein of takes. It just proves too much. Any government committing any military act is going to get some temporary nationalism boost. It doesn't mean that this is why they are doing it.

Was Putin about to lose an election to a popular opposition candidate? No. Was Russian domestic politics or economy undergoing a significant crisis before the war? No. Even in Belarus the color revolution attempt died down with zero consequences.

If anything, the only significant near-term threat to the legitimacy of the Putin regime was a situation where Ukraine would become openly belligerent and turn into a competently armed anti-Russia and get NATO protection.

Wait what? Where does this idea come from?

Such blatant unfairness raises my hackles

"The game" is unfair either way. It will never be fair as long as we are mammals with certain sexual instincts. Hear me out.

What you are objecting is a situation where the unfairness becomes explicit instead of implicit. But this is a horribly bad strategy!! If you are not a "gigachad" and/or "absolute player" type of guy, this is exactly what you want! When the rules of the game becomes more explicit it gives more chances to people who lack the deep social instincts for playing the implicit game. And forgive me for stereotyping, but I have literally never met an Indian guy (from India proper) who had very strong instincts in this regard and I know many.

When ladies get cheap booze explicitly from the bar there is less expectation on you to do the classic move of introduce yourself with confidence, say a couple witty funny things, and ask what she wants to drink. For some guys this is second nature. For many this is nerve wrecking and they will fuck it up. If you are in the group that gets the nerves from approaching a pretty girl like this then you should absolutely welcome a ladies night. It takes some pressure off you.

This is the exact reason why dance classes, blind dating, formal courtship, even arranged marriages etc are all good strategies for men too awkward to just ask a girl out from zero. Each one of these options add an extra dose of explicitness to the interaction.

Sure but does it really matter what the average person thinks? Elite attention is 99% on the news and 1% what the non-elite people think so ideally the politicians and journos panicking is all you need if you think alignment efforts are useful or important

My understanding was that not only showing genitals but just generally talking about them was taboo since culturally genitals mean sex according to the OP. Besides, when I was a small kid I remember peeing together with my dad or older cousins and everyone thought this was pretty normal. We had contests between cousins of who can pee the farthest. It was fun. I didn't start associating genitals with anything other peeing until much later.

Yes indeed, and this is exactly what has happened for a very long time. Until 1974 (Turkish invasion of Cyprus) the whole Armenian genocide story was virtually unknown in the West. It was "remembered" afterwards and ever since served as a way of regulating the Western public opinion about the country by periodically discussing it or forgetting all about it depending on the relations between countries.

Aren’t we supposed to be having an energy transition soon that will make not yet exploited gas fields obsolete?

Yeah I suppose that is the "best case" scenario, although I doubt your average Azov battalion is thrilled to die for that.

But there are some big deviations.

Ireland's former/current overlords are Anglo countries mired in versions of anti-colonial ideologies. So it is easy to make demands from them when you know how to push certain emotional narratives. Russia is unlikely to ever play along in that.

Also the world bank data shows that before the whole tax haven thing, Ireland was trailing the UK with around 65% of its GDP per capita. That is not a terribly poor country. The main period of their transition from nationalist/parochial to atomised West Europeans also lies during a period of still pretty high birthrates and global rapid economic development. Compare that with Ukraine.

In short I doubt that economically they could hope for anything better than what Bulgaria (or Romania tops) have achieved, even if they entered the EU in 2021, Europe had decades of strong economic growth and the war never happened.

Should also take into account that the next generation of Ukrainian nationalists are going to be very well armed, have enormous combat experience and corps d'esprit, and have massive expectations for the nationalist future in their mind after sacrificing so tremendously. I doubt that they will be so docile if they start smelling betrayal in the air. This video comes to mind: https://youtube.com/watch?v=rgkPpsyUFcM

Have you seen energy prices?????

Which rose a lot for a while (people generally have yearly contracts, so this didn't actually affect that many people directly) and now the nanny state stepped in in most places to protect the average consumer. I am not saying we don't face catastrophe soon, but the comment above is right that these predictions did not yet happen.

And this can be presented as the work of some rogue factions. Possibilities are endless when you control the flow of information to the extent the US government does. Ukraine has no shortage of neo-nazi militias or oligarch private armies to heap the blame on if the necessity arises.

You are assuming “everyone” is just the Americans here. Many places around the world (ranging from most of Asia and Latin America to Germanic/Francophone Europe to former white British colonies) had experiences with covid which very much justify that depiction. Indefinite house(or proper) arrest, and mass firings of people not going along with the hysteria was a reality less than a year ago. There was a very credible possibility that even worse would come, as anyone who saw the news coverage in places like Austria could easily deduct.