Quantumfreakonomics
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User ID: 324
All things considered, I think he did okay on inflation given the hand he was dealt. I think inflation is a big reason why Kamala lost, but I don't think people realize how much worse not implementing those inflationary COVID policies would be.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
The main thing you missed is that the swing states are correlated. If the polls miss extra Trump support, that will most likely materialize across demographically similar states. A 2-3 point polling error in Trump's favor (one standard deviation) wins him all the swing states.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
RFK
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
Stocks are up. Railroad stocks are way up. Pharma stocks are down.
Tax cuts, tarrifs, and drug backlash being priced in as we speak.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
Maybe? but probably not. 2020 was just a weird year in a massive number of ways. I guess am a bit more sympathetic now to the argument that mail-in expansion and other COVID electoral changes were "spiritual" fraud.
I wouldn't have had a huge problem if Trump had been wink-wink nudge-nudge about it after 2020 instead of the tantrum he decided to throw, but apparently I don't have a clue what the median voter likes.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
Has anyone seen JD Vance this evening?
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
Trump is within single digits in New Jersey. I know it was memed at the time, but did his arrest and conviction win him the criminal vote?
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
At this point? Honestly yeah.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
I haven't seen it discussed much, probably because Harris didn't lean into it, but the elephant in the room is that maybe America just doesn't want a woman president?
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
And another angel, a third, followed them, saying with a loud voice, “If anyone worships the beast and its image and receives a mark on his forehead or on his hand, he also will drink the wine of God's wrath, poured full strength into the cup of his anger, and he will be tormented with fire and sulfur in the presence of the holy angels and in the presence of the Lamb. And the smoke of their torment goes up forever and ever, and they have no rest, day or night, these worshipers of the beast and its image, and whoever receives the mark of its name.” Here is a call for the endurance of the saints, those who keep the commandments of God and their faith in Jesus.
I would not want to risk it.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
It hits different when you can see and hear them. There is something primally activating about faces and voices.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
For those of you in it for the schadenfreude, I just saw my first news pundit who looked like she was about to cry (the black woman on CNN reporting live from Harris HQ).
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
I think the difference is that we don't have COVID forcing first-time-ever changes in election mechanics. Less of a chance for midnight ballots to show up and/or the probability of that is priced in.
That's the theory anyway.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
It was trading at 25% ish before the election. Kamala's lead in Nate Silver's polling average was 1%, well within a single standard deviation.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
Whenever I see the guys on TV doing the county-by-county comparisons in Pennsylvania, it looks pretty grim for Trump. Why are the PA markets at 80%? What am I missing?
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
Georgia looks good for Trump. North Carolina coming in a bit shaky. Not sure how people are updating so much.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
Exit polls looking good for Trump in Georgia if Fox is to be believed. Blaxit seems to have materialized.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
I’m unironically hyped as fuck to watch Steve Kornacki and John King work their magic on the big board tonight.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
Depends. If they die before the official electoral college vote day in December, then I assume that a replacement candidate will be agreed upon (Joe Biden?) and will get elected instead. If it happens after the vote, then congress gets to decide what happens (20th amendment)
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
Joe Rogan never really regained his mainstream credibility after the early 2022 COVID hitjob. That level of media scrutiny changes people. It also made it so that the highest-ranking Democrat willing to go on his show was John Fetterman. On a personal level, it’s clear which side listens to him more. That sort of social camaraderie is fundamentally what drives human political behavior.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
Catholic doctrine distinguishes between a sacrament which is illicit, and one which is invalid. An invalid sacrament is null and void, whereas one which is simply illicit is meerly wrong or sinful, while still retaining its essential function.
I wonder if a similar distinction is appropriate here. Its hard for me to see why votes cast in violation of minor provisions of state election code (such as early voting hours) should be voided. Voters can't be expected to understand the entireity of the state election code. A proper remedy would target the election officials responsible for the violation.
Of course, things like ballots cast by inelligible voters or in the name of others should be tossed out and rendered invalid.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
This one actually does seem quite sketchy. Hmmm.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
While I think this is stupid, anybody can print out a voter registration form off the internet whenever they want. Having physical forms available does not meaningfully change anything.
Overheard in a Wilmington nursing home:
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