RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
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User ID: 317
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
I don't think you understand what an NFT is. The WHOLE POINT is that they are on a given blockchain and stay there. That's what tokenization means. Nobody goes around buying and selling actual passwords and keyfiles for all kinds of reasons. It's just like how we sell shares, not trading accounts.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
That's a very good point, albeit wasted this far down the comment chain. I certainly hope Gucci doesn't end up controlling its own chain, these things should be on Eth or some reasonably neutral blockchain where people have their own accounts under private control.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
NFT is unrelated to ownership of art, does not enforce anything outside blockchain
Yes? That's known by everyone who's done a 50 second browser search. They're just tokens that confer a certain status/exclusivity. Having a CS:GO knife skin doesn't mean you own the art of the skin. Having a CS:GO skin doesn't mean you can take it off Steam. The 'right-click save' meme is braindead. I can right-click save the Mona Lisa and nobody cares. I can right-click save any gacha game waifu and nobody cares. People want to have them (and no this doesn't mean that Biccus Tittus actually belongs to them in a legal sense, the game might shut down tomorrow and they lose it). People fundamentally do not understand what NFTs are and what the purpose is.
I seriously don't get why everyone on the planet woke up and decided 'let's hate this.' Ok, bored apes and goblins look pretty weird. I don't want them. I wouldn't trade perfectly good Eth for them. That's fine. I just move on.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
People coming up to you in public is a bit stressful. People sucking up to you is awkward. And you have to deal with journalists.
On the other hand, people will just employ you if you're famous, you don't have to worry about Linkedin. You can just get a sinecure from a big company.
I think it's some people's ingrained nature to do things that make them famous, the pros and cons aren't relevant to them.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
If CNN, the NYT, and Time Magazine, and the rest had all held ranks and denied everything, this would probably have blown over. Most people didn't even watch the debate.
Even the maestros can't sweep something like this under the carpet. People saw it, those 30 second clips would've circulated around facebook and twitter, not to mention international news media. They can't exactly say it was Russian misinformation. They've tried to reframe it, 'oh it was a cold' 'oh it was because it was late in the day', 'Trump lied'... That's really only damage control. If they directly lied in such a blatant way it would be a major blow to their credibility.
Effective media work maximizes use of the truth. Take Russia Today: they mostly present true events that show them favourably or advance their favoured narratives: 'we dropped a big bomb on the Ukrainian town of New York' 'we blew up this drone' 'former colonial empires are doing stuff in Africa.'
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
cannot control what happens outside its blockchain
That's not how it works. They stay on Eth or Sol or whatever chain they're on, that's the whole point. You can only deal with them through the chain they're on.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
I heard that was made up by South Korean news. Source? Of course, they might have some unofficial volunteers there.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
How NFT would even help here
Because it's a programmable contract. You can set it to do whatever automatically.
I don't even know how you can have NFT fraud. It's not like you're being sold a promise of future dev work, only for the devs to disappear. What you buy is what you get. Some people spent about $180 on gas for an NFT which just said how much gas they paid (which is pretty funny tbh). I have screenshots from the discord of this guy offering a bounty for the location of the devs: 'what will happen to them is none of your concern'. It's their own fault for buying stuff they don't need. If you do some basic checks it's very unlikely you'll be scammed.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
AI followed by crypto and aerospace/defence (which has been dragging down my portfolio tbh). https://www.themotte.org/post/948/smallscale-question-sunday-for-april-7/205716?context=8#context
Recently I've been trying to get more into the software side of AI, Microsoft as well as Nvidia. As much as I dislike the company's practices, they do have a pretty good business position. And I still think AGIX is a no-brainer. It's a shitcoin with a perfect name and smallish marketcap. We have AGI development, it moons.
https://www.themotte.org/post/381/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/68701?context=8#context
If you'd bought it back in Feb 2023 when I shilled it even after it went up 150%, you'd have made a cool 50-70% by now. Sure, I should've sold at 1.20 rather than waiting for it to fall back to the 0.70 range. I make no claim to perfectly timing the market. But I feel fine playing the long game here, I got in way lower. That's not so great compared to NVIDA but it still beats the index funds.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
See, I bet you beat the market too. Not lambo-land but you're better off than index funds.
Yeah NFTs were a bit of a dud. I think the idea was good (I never wanted any and didn't buy any) but everyone hates them for some reason. Aren't they strictly better forms of digital cosmetic items? Why are CS:GO knives worth more than jpegs on the internet? Wouldn't it be good for artists if they got some set% of the resale value of their art? I don't think I've ever been more isolated and alone in defending NFTs though, pedophilia seems more popular.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
I am not a billionaire because I did not have high starting capital. And I make mistakes like everyone does, I did not anticipate the massive money-printing resurgence after March and missed out a bit there. You might say 'just use 10x leverage' and I assure you that is the surest route to disaster. There is nothing more dangerous than leverage. Nevertheless, I have made significantly greater returns than the market average. Something like 40-50% annualized? I can't calculate it out properly because I put more money in over time.
In February 2020 we had this: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8004055/THE-REUTERS-GRAPHIC-Under-Chinas-coronavirus-lockdown-millions-go.html
But markets didn't react until March! Isn't that insane? China is the factory of the world and they're locking down, where are goods going to come from? What does that say about the rest of the world?
There are loads of smart people who made a tonne of money beating the market. If you're early on the right companies you can make a lot of money. What about the Bitcoin maxis from 2012 or even 2014? They're living in Lambo land right now. I got into crypto much later and still got a couple of 10xes. Or early Nvidia buyers. I bought some Nvidia before ChatGPT and got a 10x there. None of this is terribly hard. There's room for error so long as you work out the broad trends, take things slow and don't leverage up.
I don't understand why AGI-pilled, scaling-pilled people didn't make as much or more than me. I think a lot of people can't be bothered to put in the effort, fill in the forms and stomach that gut feeling of dread when you lose a lot of money.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
Stock markets don't know all that much, that's why volatility exists. There was about a monthlong period where the Chinese locked down 100 million people over a virus and the market was barely affected. It doesn't take a genius to perceive that COVID was a big deal in early 2020, before the March panic.
Nor did it take a genius to perceive that the new AI techniques were a big deal back in 2020 or 2021. The GPT-3 paper was out then, people like Gwern were showing the vast possibilities. And nobody really noticed until ChatGPT several years later when it became blindingly obvious what was going on.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
terminally ill billionaire who's got like three years left to live
You can just buy outcomes with money rather than mucking about with violence. Take Soros. He finances candidates for office, high and low. He funds NGOs that train up ideological cadres and create a bunch of agitators and activists. I don't know, maybe Soros dips his toe into violence from time to time. But the vast majority of his effort is peaceful, putting end results to one side.
There's no opposition like there would be for violence. Post 1945 Liberal democracies have zero defence mechanism against this kind of nudge-nudge bribe-bribe mobilize-cadres sort of thing. If you do this in China, the state will harass you and make your life miserable. See the Beijing LGBT center, the police kept messing with them until they gave up and closed down.
Police pressure on rights groups increased in the past few years, the activist said. Police often invited LGBTQ+ groups to “drink tea” — a euphemism for unofficial meetings that police use to keep track of certain targets. That used to happen in public spaces, but started taking place in private spaces, such as directly in front of activists’ homes. Police also started taking activists to the police station for these “teas,” the activist said.
Of course, it's a very different story for the right. They're not civil society groups or reformers, they spread dangerous misinformation or are far-right extremist radicals. AFD experiences similar kinds of suppression. Trump is being suppressed. There are voices ready to tell them 'no!' whereas the left gets to act more freely.
The left doesn't need violence to get what they want (though they can use it to a certain extent), the right can't afford to use it for much the same reasons that political violence doesn't happen in China. It makes more sense to spend time and effort building up cadres, though this is somewhat harder for them.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
Interested to see your thoughts. I also saw the Unitree robots, thought they were real but couldn't really tell. On reflection, Chinese CGI has a certain artificial look to it that was missing.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
I think alignment is a euphemism. The Nazi Party had Gleichschaltung or 'coordination/synchronization' where they took over all aspects of society. Really it should have been called Totalitarianism because that's what it meant in practice. Likewise, alignment means imposing your political viewpoint as a lens for the AI. You can see the same thing from GPT-4 where it refuses to make jokes that make fun of women but will do so for men. Claude was highly filtered on a wide range of things. Chinese AI tend to shut down if you ask it about various anti-CCP things.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
If LLMs have moved trillions of dollars on the stock market, they must be doing something pretty substantial.
OpenAI is apparently bringing in billions in revenue. Apparently character.ai gets 1/5 of Google's inference requests (there are a lot of lonely people out there).
https://research.character.ai/optimizing-inference/
Yes, even less tech-savvy investors have realized this is a big thing.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
Preface: I'm not the most technically knowledgeable AI person in the world.
Does the recent release of Deepseek v2 mean that China is at parity with the US on AI models?
https://github.com/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-Coder-V2?tab=readme-ov-file#2-model-downloads
According to the stats they give, it's comparable to GPT4o in most things (slightly behind) but ahead on some coding questions. I know benchmarks can be gamed and/or deceptive but it's an open-source project, I don't know why you'd go to the effort of lying. They also give extremely low API prices, which suggests that it's quite cheap to run or they somehow have more money than the US tech juggernauts.
I know that US labs might not have released everything they have for the public and the new Claude Sonnet is also getting a lot of attention. But new Claude seems roughly on-par with GPT-4o too, maybe a little bit ahead. And why would Deepseek be the best AI model in China? Isn't the general rule that open-source is behind closed-source? I get the sense that China is quite secretive and their biggest tech companies aren't exactly eager to have another volley of sanctions hitting them, wouldn't they stay under the limelight. "This isn't even my final model" should roughly apply to both sides.
Theories:
- US labs are still well ahead because Deepseek v2 is gaming metrics or otherwise bad in various ways compared to top models
- US labs are ahead because they're sitting on GPT-5 (which is dangerous since it puts millions of people out of work tomorrow and starts a giga-arms race) or racing for superintelligence
- China has closed the gap
Related: https://x.com/teortaxesTex/status/1804571746550366264
Maybe the Chinese dumped political 'alignment' and are pulling ahead? I've heard various praise for pre-RLHF'd GPT-4s cognitive abilities.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
The stated purpose of SBS is "to provide multilingual and multicultural radio and television services that inform, educate and entertain all Australians and, in doing so, reflect Australia's multicultural society"
They're generally pretty accurate though, it's mostly in story selection and presentation that their slant appears.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
In Australian news, 9 years jail-time (5.5 non-parole) for a guy who posted pictures of women superimposed onto pornography.
Andrew Thomas Hayler has been sentenced to nine years in jail for posting images of women on a pornographic site.
He posted photos of friends, colleagues and housemates and superimposed their faces onto sexually explicit images.
Judge Jane Culver said Hayler's actions had caused "profound harm" to the victims.
He pleaded guilty to 28 counts of using a carriage service to menace, harass and offend, telling a court his offending was an "outlet for a part of his psyche he didn't want".
Along with posting the images, Hayler also made comments such as "she is a future rape victim", "I am closing in on this sl--", "I now know where she lives" and "let's claim her as ours".
Pleading guilty is supposed to get you 25% off in our system. He'll almost certainly appeal and get the sentence greatly reduced, which the judge should really have been aware of in theory-of-mind terms. She's known to be a harsh sentencer. For context, the maximum penalty for trafficking commercial quantities of drugs is 10 years (large commercial quantities is higher). Grievous bodily harm? Max 10 years.
At the same time we have an ongoing debate about restructuring rape/sexual assault trials to ensure the victim can't be cross-examined so intensely. Presumably as women get more and more influence in the legal system this trend of favouring female interests will continue.
https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/report/2024/climate-change-and-energy/#nuclear-power
https://news.gallup.com/poll/474650/americans-support-nuclear-energy-highest-decade.aspx
Australians are mildly in favour of nuclear power, we're actually more pro-nuclear than the US by a small margin. There's a fairly large gender gap, a lot of women say they're unsure about nuclear energy (compared to men) and thus their support is lower while opposition is just as high or higher.
https://essentialvision.com.au/support-for-nuclear-energy-in-australia
Despite my heartfelt desire for nuclear energy, I am almost certain that Australia is not competent enough to make it work. There will be extremely bitter sabotage and wrecking campaigns from the Greens who utterly hate nuclear energy. If Labour win even a minority government, they'll have to work with the Greens to govern: nuclear will be toast. German Greens like Habeck sabotaged German nuclear energy by misrepresenting scientific reports to justify closure even in an energy shortage. Their order of operations is pretty clear - Green parties were founded on opposition to nuclear weapons and nuclear power and they are true to their beliefs.
There are countries that know how to build and countries that don't. South Korea, Japan and China are industrious and pretty efficient, they can get things done on-schedule and under budget, nuclear plants included. Australia is pretty terrible at manufacturing. We gave up on the car industry over a decade ago, labour is very expensive and unions are quite powerful. We are also pretty bad at construction, there are endless regulations and environmental reviews. The kind of country that outright bans nuclear energy is not going to have a permissive regulatory environment for anything! Indigenous people will probably also try to extract some cash from the government, they've been hostile to nuclear since the nuclear tests here.
Building your first nuclear plant is hard, there are always going to be delays and cost overruns. Likewise with Small Modular Reactors. Great, promising technology. But nobody's put them into production for civilian uses, there are only the military submarine reactors. The physics is simple, the engineering and safetyist regulation is the hard part. That's what happened to nuclear in the USA, costs rose 5-10x because of intense regulation.
I foresee years spent working to open a path through a thicket of regulation and legal obstacles, years more worrying about storing nuclear waste for millions of years (the US spent billions on this silly problem and still failed, see Yucca mountain). There will be some inevitable delay as industry wants cash paid upfront rather than trust that their capital-intensive, slow-payoff project won't be cancelled. The Greens and Labour will shout that it's too expensive and too dangerous, despite the expense stemming from overreactions to safety. Some crisis will come up and the government will get distracted. They might fall into the trap of constantly switching tenders like we did with submarines: Japan->France->US/UK. Our national defence is heavy on announcements, light on results. Nuclear could be the same. The Coalition might fall into the trap of replacing Dutton the moment his polls fall, like with the last couple of their prime ministers. There are so many roads to boondoggle and only a few to success.
Maybe the global tide is turning. China is constructing plenty of reactors, South Korea switched back in favour of nuclear. The US recently legislated to loosen the straitjacket: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-senate-passes-bill-support-advanced-nuclear-energy-deployment-2024-06-19/
But if Dutton makes nuclear work in Australia, if reactors actually enter service, he deserves a Lee Kuan Yew Medal for outstanding political achievement.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
That was a cool video, liked the fire-and-manoeuvre plus hand signals.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
Sure but being Jewish is a ethnically rooted property, not an ideological property like Nazism. You could be French and hate the French nation, seek its destruction and yet still be French. It would be impossible to be a French nationalist, however.
Cute girls in libertarian sci-fi worked out for Devon Erikson, it could work for you too. I am also sad that 'methfueledinsaneloli' is not a widely used tag.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1yr ago
Astartes was universally beloved though, it's the platinum standard for 40K fanworks. The guy who made it was clearly super talented but it proves that it can be done. 'Show don't tell' is great!
I think you could have a film with a nailbiting, dialogue-free action finale between drone operators. Or maybe they do psy-ops to taunt eachother with pre-recorded messages on their drones? If you can send a signal from your person to the drone, you could send a message too. Occasionally there are these scenes where soldiers bait drones to attack and then dodge. Or that Bradley-BTR duel from the other day, these crazy moments are rare but do happen.
Tanya the evil novels were fun, I liked all the autistic stuff they put in about how Russian air defences were so shit a random Finn landed a light aircraft in Moscow, so they could do a deep strike there and get away with it.
I still can't get past the absence of human capital in one of the world's most demanding jobs, in one of the world's most demanding eras.
The 2024-2028 period is pivotal! AI, China, Ukraine, Israel, the consequences of the US running 5% deficits in a high-interest rates...
And who is running the country? Hunter Biden is apparently giving advice: https://x.com/njhochman/status/1808249717840924923
https://x.com/KenDilanianNBC/status/1808201096785007079
Alternately, the US has Donald Trump and Kamala Harris who are not exactly paragons of competence and leadership. I know that presidents don't actually draft legislation but their leadership is important, they make the big picture decisions. States need a strong central arbiter to keep things on track, to promote coherent strategy and deal with crises.
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