SerialStateLineXer
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User ID: 1345
This is not my area of expertise, but I'd expect that to lead to much larger distances on the right tail.
It does, but I accounted for that. The right tail is longer than expected even when accounting for the fact that it's logistic. Either there's something I'm not understanding about how this works, or someone screwed up somewhere.
SerialStateLineXer
1yr ago
That looks like a bug. The use of backticks didn't prevent the tildes from creating a strikethrough effect.
SerialStateLineXer
1yr ago
I don't know. Switzerland, maybe? Low taxes, high wages, smart people, and excellent graphics. Singapore seems cool, too. Taiwan has low wages, but would otherwise be a pretty swell place if not for the threat from China.
SerialStateLineXer
1yr ago
There are tons of people in the US who don't care at all about politics. Find them. Or find like-minded people in the US and move to where they are.
SerialStateLineXer
4mo ago
Parties are private organizations, though. They can just disregard the Colorado primary in deciding which candidate to back in the general election, can't they?
SerialStateLineXer
1yr ago
HBD is important because it's a refutation of the myth that low black and indigenous achievement is due to racism. It's also a refutation of antisemitic conspiracy theories about high Jewish achievement.
You point out the effects of genetics denialism on education, but it goes far beyond that. It also results in nonsensical ideas about and policies to address underrepresentation in cognitively demanding occupations, earnings and wealth gaps, incarceration rates, and even a literal blood libel about the causes of racial disparities in police shootings.
Note that although race gets all the attention, there's also class HBD, i.e. differences in average genetic potential for academic and professional achievement that break down along class lines, which is the main reason why even within races we see that children of successful parents tend to do better in school and earn more than children of poor parents. Because of genetics denialism, we get pants-on-head stupid discourse about "mobility" premised on the ridiculous idea that intergenerational income elasticity can be entirely attributed to rich parents buying advantages for their children and poor children having no chance to get ahead.
A lot of people, mistakenly believing that HBD is racist, nevertheless don't buy into the idea that racism causes racial achievement gaps, instead attributing the gaps to culture. There's probably a grain of truth here, but the very small effect of shared environment on adult IQ in twin studies is hard to reconcile with SES or culture explaining more than a small portion of the gap.
Aside from the fact that it appears to be wrong, I don't like the fact that this hypothesis adds insult to injury. Why blame people for something they can't help.
As for the dysgenic effects of welfare combined with low fertility among the cognitive elite, I do worry about this and would certainly be in favor of, e.g. sterilization of convicted violent criminals or making welfare eligibility contingent on use of long-term birth control, but I'm counting on genetic engineering to save us from the long-term consequences of the dysgenics program the government has been running.
SerialStateLineXer
1yr ago
I don't think she would be considered black in the US, except by people who have an ideological interest in her being considered as such.
SerialStateLineXer
9hr ago
Worst back pain I ever got was from shaving wrong. Somehow.
SerialStateLineXer
1mo ago
I do not get the appeal of dogs with small heads and long faces. Those things creep me out.
SerialStateLineXer
3mo ago
As I understand it, heritability can only be greater than 100% if you have negative gene-environment correlation, i.e. if the people with higher polygenic scores tend to raise their children in environments less conducive to increasing intelligence.
Hypothetically you could have infinite heritability if environment perfectly cancelled out genes, resulting in everyone having equal intelligence despite variation in genetic potential.
SerialStateLineXer
4mo ago
The Law of Merited Impossibility wasn't what I was thinking of, because it was definitely a sequence of assertions, shifting over time as earlier stages become untenable. The Narcissist's Prayer is much more similar to what I had in mind. The name doesn't ring a bell, but maybe that was it.
SerialStateLineXer
4mo ago
The link has expired. What was it?
SerialStateLineXer
5mo ago
The stuff I was doing last week is all out of bounds, I'm not going to be doing KBs or Olympic lifts for a while.
I don't know exactly what's wrong with your back, but two-handed kettlebell swings have actually really helped when I've tweaked my back, as I do every five years or so.
What I do is start with a conservative range of motion, and then after several reps the pain-free range of motion increases a bit. I continue until I can do the full range of motion pain-free. Usually the pain comes back after a while, but it gives me short-term pain relief and probably accelerates healing.
Not sure if this works as well for the upper back, but it's worth a try. Generally you want to use the injured muscles ASAP to increase blood flow to the injured tissue, rather than just resting it completely.
SerialStateLineXer
5mo ago
This would have to be a defect in mitochondrial proteins that are coded for in nuclear DNA, right? The mother obviously doesn't have the disease, or she would never have lived long enough to reproduce. Since mitochondrial DNA is inherited from the mother without recombination, then it can't be carried in mitochondrial DNA, unless it's a de novo mutation.
Many (most?) mitochondrial genes have migrated into nuclear DNA, so an autosomal recessive disease could explain how she was able to inherit the disease without either of her parents having it.
SerialStateLineXer
6mo ago
The impression I seem to get from the internet is that lawyers are all miserable alcoholics who wish they had become software engineers.
20 years ago, my girlfriend's CS professor told me I should quit working at Microsoft and go to law school because that's where the real money is. I almost did it, too, until I found out that you have to work like 80 hours a week for years to make partner and start making said real money. Tech is best for smart lazy people.
Interesting guy, though. He taught theory of computation, but I don't think he actually knew anything about software engineering. I can't believe he's still alive; back then he weighed at least 300 pounds and had recently had a stroke.
SerialStateLineXer
7mo ago
I'm currently about 154lbs, and by the numbers, in order for me to exercise enough to lose a whole pound I have to run a literal marathon.
That actually might not be enough. The usual estimate is 100 calories burned per mile, which means that a marathon should burn 2,600 calories, which is not enough to lose a pound of fat.
SerialStateLineXer
7mo ago
Now you make me want to quit drinking. The only problem is that I never started.
SerialStateLineXer
7mo ago
Yeah. The math is a bit counterintuitive if you're used to thinking about income taxes. For example, a 100% sales tax only creates a tax wedge of 50%, and a sales tax can go over 100%. To create the 95% tax wedge that inspired the song "Taxman," you'd need a 1,900% sales tax.
SerialStateLineXer
8mo ago
That chart is not actually the median mortgage payment, but what a mortgage for the median home sale price at current mortgage rates would be, correct?
SerialStateLineXer
8mo ago
The reason to use free weights rather than machines is that you activate all kinds of smaller stabilizing muscles that aren't hit when using a machine because the machine guides the path of the weight for you.
Why do so few people take this to its logical conclusion and use dumbbells instead of barbells for presses? Dumbbells require more stabilization than a barbell does. At some point you get too strong for the heaviest dumbbells at your gym, but most people never get there.
SerialStateLineXer
8mo ago
Note that shitty parenting likely correlates with heritable psychopathic tendencies. It's like ACEs (adverse childhood experiences). There's a ton of research showing that ACEs are correlated with had life outcomes, with the researchers and media glibly asserting causality, but if you actually look at the canonical list of ACEs, it's markers of bad parenting like "abused by parents" and "parent went to prison," not random bad luck like "raped by a stranger on the way home from school" or "injured in a serious car accident."
So there's an obvious genetic explanation that's being almost totally ignored by the people who are supposed to be the experts.
SerialStateLineXer
11mo ago
It's not about what the revenues are used for. It's about internalizing the externalities. When you use roads, that imposes a certain cost on society, because it costs money to build and maintain the roads, and only so many people can use them at the same time. When you burn fuel, you impose a certain cost on society by contributing to global warming, and also emitting other pollutants.
US gas taxes might be high enough to cover one of these, but are probably not high enough to cover both of them. So maybe burning a gallon of gas has a total social cost (including the cost of extracting the gas, road upkeep, and pollution) of $3.50, but you only have to pay $2.75. Or whatever. This means that if you get $3 of value out of burning a gallon of gas, you'll do it, even though it does $3.50 worth of damage. That's a bad outcome. We want an incentive structure in which you only do $3.50 of damage if you get at least $3.50 in value from it.
SerialStateLineXer
1yr ago
Now that you mention it, I'm having trouble finding it now, but I remember reading about some Chinese neighborhood in the US or Canada that ostensibly had a very high poverty rate, but was full of million-dollar houses, the explanation being that there was a ton of tax evasion going on.
SerialStateLineXer
1yr ago
It's not a question of how wide the confidence interval is, but of how much of the interval is greater than 1. For a 95% confidence interval, a one-tailed p of 0.025 should correspond to a CI with an upper (or lower) bound of 1.0. Since the p value is only slightly greater than 0.025, I would expect the upper bound of the CI to be closer to 1.
I checked confidence intervals of hazard ratios for several other published studies and found that the CIs were consistently geometrically symmetrical (i.e. upper/point = point/lower) around the point estimate, but now that I think about it, they all had large samples. I'll have to look into why small sample can result in asymmetric confidence intervals.
That's a summary report. The full report is like a hundred pages with statistics for over a hundred different causes of death broken down by multiple demographic stats. Here's the report for 2019:
https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/106058/cdc_106058_DS1.pdf
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