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TheDag

Per Aspera ad Astra

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joined 2022 September 05 16:04:17 UTC 

				
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TheDag


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
Per Aspera ad Astra

				
				
				

				

					3 followers  

					follows 12 users  

					joined 2022 September 05 16:04:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
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User ID: 616


					
					
					
				

			


					

						
					



		

	

 











			
			

			
			

			




	


		

			
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				On Courage and Adversity in Modern Life
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Thanks for the reply.




By instilling terminal values in parents that incentivize them to expose their own children to doses of adversity at each age and to foster in them a sense of responsibility for their choices and for those circumstances over which they can exercise control.




With this, I think the problem I see is one, nobody can agree on which terminal values will help here. This solution sounds nice but we need practical steps that can be implemented today, or at least strived towards.


Do you have any ideas that you can lay out as to how to achieve this instilling of terminal values?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				On Courage and Adversity in Modern Life
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Thanks! I hadn't heard of that Haidt book, putting it on my list. Sounds right up my alley. And yeah, unfortunately Safetyism has infected pretty much everything, not just childcare. You have IRBs in healthcare, legal statutes that stop anything from happening.


I feel like we modern Westerners have this delusion that if we just implement a ton of rules and get regulations right then we can fix everything immediately and prevent pain from happening. It's a comforting delusion because people don't like complexity and uncertainty, but in my mind it's doomed to fail. We have to accept the world as it is, understand that bad things will happen for no good reason, and try our best to mitigate the bad circumstances while still taking risks. I agree that I'm not sure how to break out of the status quo.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Yeah, I think that a lot of folks here have been really struggling with the Problem of Evil, so to speak. There's so much mental illness and frankly broken people in the world that they want a quick easy solution, just sweep all the 'bad people' under the rug to fix it.


The problem as I see it is that there's clearly some major issues with the way we have organized modern societies, or maybe the influence of technology on us, that makes it so an increasing number of people just can't cope. They don't have meaning in their lives, and they can't seem to function well in society.


The progressive view is that we need to better our institutions and safety nets to allow for more flourishing, the conservative ideal looks to be that we just shame and punish people over and over until they act better. I think that we do need both sides, but too few people are willing to find a compromise between the two.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


While it's fashionable to sneer at this today, it is not a new idea that one solution to evil is to fight it.




Is using a systematized solution to stop evil not fighting it?


I suppose what I'm saying is that there are many ways to fight problems. In general I favor non-violent solutions where possible, which I think is the start of where a lot of system-oriented folks get to. Our whole modern conception of agency is incredible fraught, I don't know if I can even touch that reasonably.


I agree with your point on safety nets. It's a bad term, and permanent welfare is often far worse for people. Once someone's self image becomes weak and dependent, I think it exacerbates the problem rather than solving it.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
If that is true, why are crazy people still in the gene pool period?


Our conception of 'crazy' in the modern world may just be a symptom of our worldview. Many people who have schizo-affective disorders today would probably be legitimately accepted as prophets, or being possessed by demons, or called by the gods in previous societies. And based on historic data, those 'cures' seemed to be quite effective, at least form the anecdotes that we have passed down.


Perhaps our entire frame of the problem is an impediment to solving it.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				On Courage and Adversity in Modern Life
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
You've got some very thought-provoking riffs in here, I am fascinated by greater male variability, surprised I haven't come upon that myself yet.




I find it difficult to fault people for preferring stability and the well-trod path, but when too many people take that path it introduces its own forms for vulnerability.




I generally agree with this framing, the oft-cited solution is a social 'safety net' of sorts. Although as @The_Nybbler points out in the CW thread, this type of 'solution' tends to make the problem worse. If anything being on a welfare problem leads to people taking less risk and feeling less secure.




I recognize now I've just rederived "greater male variability hypothesis," which leads me to rephrase that question: which should society optimize for?




This question is definitely beyond me, however I'd argue that as a society we should help people genuinely discover their own strengths, talents, whatever, then optimize in that way. This could look like more self-selection into different tracks during early education, a stronger emphasis on genetic determinism in education (although this may be hopelessly fraught with the current Overton Window) or just a greater push on making folks aware of the benefits and downsides of risk. Currently the social consensus, at least among the majority of productive members of society, is that risk is always bad and you should never take a risk professionally.


Even if people don't say this out loud, their preferences certainly reveal an extremely low risk tolerance. What's ironic is that we have so much more wealth than previous generations, yet we seem ever more afraid of loss.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for May 7, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I just started The Triumph of Christianity. I like the framing laid out so far, but haven't gotten more than a few pages into it yet.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for May 7, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
You're in for a great ride. Definitely curious to hear your thoughts after you finish it.


Since you're interested in religious philosophy, I'll note that Bakker has by far the best conception of religion in a fantasy world I've ever seen. His knowledge of how religion shapes us and is shaped by us goes incredibly deep.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Great comment, reported for quality contribution.




The problem isn't guns, the problem is that there are millions of disaffected people living in a country founded on the idea of individual human rights. That works when the people are hyper-invested in their families and the future that they'll be living in; that doesn't work when everybody is depressed and hates each other.




This is an underrated point. So many times when societal ills come up in rationalist discourse, people hand wave away, are ignorant of, or flat out ignore the fact that at least 1/5 (probably more in actuality) of the US population is depressed or has some mental disorder. Even given that our modern psychiatric framing is largely faulty, this mass wave of disaffectedness means that traditional solutions, things that worked for our forefathers, need rethinking.


Even though past societies had plenty of times of upheaval, they had different ways of fixing things. Revolutions, massive aligned religions, cultural processes and holidays like the Roman Saturnalia which acted as a pressure release valve for hierarchical resentment. We've been increasingly preventing a release of the pressure, and it will only get worse as we continue to do nothing.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Systematizing it does tend to make it too big to solve and removes the responsibility of anyone to solve it.




This is the fundamental paradox of a massive, globally connected society. We need systems to coordinate, but humans are built to live in systems. Definitely makes for interesting discourse.




The idea seems to be "to keep the homeless person from assaulting people, you must first solve drug addiction and mental illness".




Part of this is also the nature of democracy. It's hard to win a campaign being 'tough on crime.' Generally more feel-good solutions will appeal to a broader majority, as they're far easier to justify and seem less morally fraught. Even if these types of solutions have worse outcomes overall.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				On Courage and Adversity in Modern Life
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I wish I had an explanation here because I think this is mostly true, but I'm also sure our local historians could come up with a lot of notable exceptions. I'm thinking of things like Victorian gentleman-scientists who could only do their experiments or adventures because they were landed gentry




I think the difference is clearly based on self perception combined with status in society. Because welfare (rightly) has such a negative social connotation, and because there are a lot of bureaucratic procedures around getting on welfare that can function as transformative rituals, I’d posit that people who go on welfare see themselves as fundamentally worth less than they were before. When you have no strong belief in religion, the modern state becomes the most powerful force in your life. If that force is continuously telling you that you can’t productively contribute, you’re likely to believe it.




IMO much of postmodernism could only be dreamed up by people insulated from the consequences of their thoughts.




I actually think we have the opposite problem - there are tons of issues like HBD, the difference between equality and the real world, etc where there are plenty of consequences for those thoughts. Postmodernism also has a wealthy tradition of important insights behind it, but runs into the problem of being inscrutable. Because it’s inscrutable many grifters just parrot the language for status without understanding it at all. Doesn’t help that numbers of published papers are rewarded far more than the quality of someone’s writing.


On the side of risk, I think we generally agree from what you’ve said. I also am working to increase my risk tolerance, and there’s really no substitute for just taking risks even if it terrifies you.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for May 7, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2009/10/07/the-gervais-principle-or-the-office-according-to-the-office/


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				On Courage and Adversity in Modern Life
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Well how do you make parents more brave and conscientious etc? I tend to agree that government programs have issues, but even a broader social movement needs something to coalesce around.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I'd rather see this a bit more fleshed out for a top level comment, personally. This feels like it belongs more in SQS.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Really?




Do you have a text argument similar to this podcast? I am interested but prefer to read.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Thanks!


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for May 10, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I know what you mean. I felt this way somewhat when I found the rationalist space years ago. I basically just put my non work life on hold and read all these posts from slate star: https://slatestarcodex.com/archives/


With a lot of googling and other research as well. Took me about six months but it was worth it, my world view changed entirely.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for May 10, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It helps too if you can discuss these things with other people, online or IRL. There are a bunch of SSC meetups and effective altruism meetups if you’re into that crowd.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for May 14, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
One suit. Will have worn it five times by June.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 15, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


The future of AI is likely decided this week with Sam Altman's Congressional testimony. What do you expect?




I expect nothing to happen for another few years, by which time it's too late. As @2rafa mentioned below, I'm convinced AI research and development is already far ahead of where it needs to be for AGI in the next couple of years. Given the US's embarrassing track record of trying to regulate social media companies, I highly doubt they'll pass an effective regulation regime.


What I would expect, if something gets rushed through, is for Altman and other big AI players to use this panic the doomers have generated as a way to create an artificially regulated competitive moat. Basically the big players are the ones who rushed in early, broke all the rules, then kicked the ladder down behind them. This is a highly unfortunate, but also highly likely future in my estimation.


It's ironic that we've entered into this age of large networks and systems, yet with the rise of AGI we may truly go back to the course of humanity being determined by the whims of a handful of leaders. I'm not sure I buy the FOOM-superintelligence arguments, but even GPT-4 optimized with plug-ins and website access will be a tsunami of change over the way we approach work. If there are more technical advancements in the next few years, who knows where we will end up.


What annoys me most is that this doomer rhetoric lets politicians act like they're doing something - stopping the AI companies from growing - when in reality they need to face the economic situation. Whether it's UBI, massive unemployment benefits, socialized housing, or whatever, our political class must face the massive economic change coming. At this rate it seems neither side of the aisle is willing to double down on the idea that AI will disrupt the workforce, instead they prefer to argue about the latest social issue du jour. This avoidance of the economic shocks coming in the next five years or less is deeply troubling in my view.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 15, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The employment regulation with regards to benefits for full time employees also creates a stagnant market. You’d imagine without these sorts of regulatory requirements on hours worked per week, there could be much more flexibility and experimentation with different working hours in different business types.


In my view the amount of hours needed per week should vary drastically by industry, but unfortunately that’s not possible because we’ve decided all full time work is 40 hours, period. This has massive switching costs for the economy and labor market especially.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 15, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Do you think the existing elite is likely to leverage AI to entrench themselves, or are they behind the curve on this new tech adoption?


It seems like elites weathered the storm of the internet and the social media/mobile revolutions pretty well, although I think the latter was more of an ‘on paper’ revolution in many ways. Then again mass technological shifts. are ripe times for regime change.


Do we see the techno-capitalist dystopia controlled by a few that the left loves to imagine? Or an open source freedom driven spread of LLMs on local hardware, as I think @DaseindustriesLtd would prefer?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 15, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


If they're not needed and can't use violence to effectively overthrow the system then why would anyone need to pay any attention to them whatsoever?




You're drastically overestimating how cold blooded those at the top of society are. I find this sort of rhetoric so infuriating - do you really think elites all walk around with a view that they are better than all others, and the peasants can just die if they're useless? No, that's not how it works.


Most rich or wealthy folk want the approval of the masses. Status is arguably more desirable than wealth for many. They conceive of themselves as popular, someone that others look up to, and that helps give elites their sense of self. Even if there were absolutely no point to "peasants" living, which I still doubt, elites would let them live out of a sense of care for other human beings, and a need for adoration.


Regardless, humanity still produces quite a bit of important work, and will continue to into the era of AI. We can judge things, laugh, provide companionship, and generally instill meaning in a meaningless world. Even though we have a foolish scheme of employment vs unemployment that disregards vast swathes of human work, I'm optimistic AI will help us reimagine what it means to work. We very well could have people building community, caring for themselves and others, child rearing, discussing novel ideas, etc. after AI rises to swallow most of the economy. It depends on what we want to see happen.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 15, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Agreed here. I think that most major institutions will be massively blindsided, at least from the public perspective. With a technology this volatile that's so hard to predict, I think the risk assessment will make these hide bound juggernauts try to avoid taking a public stance until the chips fall decisively to one side or another. Which is precisely when their statements will cease to really matter.


This is, of course, by design.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 15, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Venkat Rao has done some vague mumblings about how AI and crypto are 'two sides of the same coin,' and I'm curious to see where he goes with it. I like to think there is a sort of synergy between the two technologies that goes deeper than "AI creates fake stuff" vs "crypto tells us what stuff is real or fake".