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WhiningCoil


				

				

				
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joined 2022 September 04 23:24:47 UTC
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User ID: 269

WhiningCoil


				
				
				

				
5 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2022 September 04 23:24:47 UTC

					

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User ID: 269

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I earnest disagree. If you check the GPT-4 white paper, the original base model clearly had a sense of internal calibration, and while that was mostly beaten out of it through RLHF, it's not entirely gone.

They have a genuine understanding of truth, or at least how likely something is to be true. If it didn't, then I don't know how on Earth it could answer several of the more knotty questions I've asked it.

It is not guaranteed to make truthful responses, but in my experience it makes errors because it simply can't do better, not because it exists in a perfectly agnostic state.

I think you are flatly wrong about this. I've tried to find literally anything to back up what you are saying, and come up with zilch. Instead, I wound up with this.

https://www.scribbr.com/ai-tools/is-chatgpt-trustworthy/

A good way to think about it is that when you ask ChatGPT to tell you about confirmation bias, it doesn’t think “What do I know about confirmation bias?” but rather “What do statements about confirmation bias normally look like?” Its answers are based more on patterns than on facts, and it usually can’t cite a source for a specific piece of information.

This is because the model doesn’t really “know” things—it just produces text based on the patterns it was trained on. It never deliberately lies, but it doesn’t have a clear understanding of what’s true and what’s false. In this case, because of the strangeness of the question, it doesn’t quite grasp what it’s being asked and ends up contradicting itself.

https://www.scoutcorpsllc.com/blog/2023/6/7/on-llms-thought-and-the-concept-of-truth

Thus far, we’re really just talking about sentence construction. LLMs don’t have a concept of these as “facts” that they map into language, but for examples like these - it doesn’t necessarily matter. They’re able to get these right most of the time - after all, what exactly are “inferences” and “context clues” but statistical likelihoods of what words would come next in a sequence?

The fact that there is no internal model of these facts, though, explains why they’re so easily tripped up by just a little bit of irrelevant context.

https://fia.umd.edu/comment-llms-truth-and-consistency-they-dont-have-any-idea/

They have zero idea what's true. They only know the probabilities of words in text. That's NOT the same thing as "knowing" something--it's a bit like knowing that "lion" is the most likely word following "king of the jungle..." without having any idea about monarchies, metaphor, or what a king really is all about.

The folks at Oxford Semantic Technologies wrote an interesting blog post about LLMs and finding verifiable facts. They call the fundamental problem the "Snow White Problem." The key idea is that LLMs don't really know what's true--they just know what's likely.

She scans (checks out) a bike one of the kids is sitting on, and tries to take it.

Wait, what? In the video don't we see the nurse sitting on the bike? How the fuck did that happen? This chain of events as given makes no sense with the video of the nurse sitting on the bike.

Unless my eyes were lying to me, I call complete bullshit.

One bit of anecdata I've heard over and over again, is people moving to Europe, not changing their diet what so ever, and losing weight. Because Europe doesn't put high fructose corn syrup in everything.

No, I literally cannot imagine a scenario where a pregnant woman successfully forces a teenaged male off a bike he doesn't want to be removed from, and takes his place. Especially not without everyone falling over in a tangled mess and getting scrapes and cuts all over their hands, elbows and knees. Probably some decent bruising as well. I especially cannot imagine such a thing happening with not just 1 teenage male present, but 5. Its not just a physical impossibility, it boggles the mind the consider the psychology of the person who thinks thats a thing they could pull off.

In another post (which I'm too lazy to link to) I pondered about how to get something like this back up and running today. It's hard for a few reasons; 1) Hunting isn't at all "necessary" the way it was in societies past, so the social honor / social proof reward would be absent for some sort of rec-league hunting team 2) War is a contest of human-techno-logistical systems now and you need committed professionals. As much as I love my Marines, the "warrior spirit" can't help you against guided munitions 3) I can't actually bring myself to be okay with something on the order of 1-2 in 10 young men being permanently maimed / killed for no other reason than to help generally promote good society wide models of masculinity. The closest approximation I came up with is a re-worked National Guard program (male only) that would start at the end of High School with something like quarterly musters until the age of 50. So many legal / logistic problems with that and I don't know if it would actually result in much more than a federally subsidized "guns and bowling" league.

You left out 4) Men aren't allowed to have anything to themselves anymore, ever.

When I was a young man, I went to LAN parties with a bunch of other young men, and we formed intense bonds over deathmatches screaming every racially charged obscenity we could imagine. We tooled out our rigs, lots of us began learning to program or mod games, etc. This all happened in the safety of a basement, largely without internet except in the few houses that had big fancy broadband, and nobody was ever hurt.

Sure, it's not the most traditional of male bonding/rights of passage, but I think it worked, after a fashion, for us.

All this is now verboten. All games have some random fucking girlboss lecturing you about your privilege. There are no more offline servers. All behavior is closely monitored and you get suspended. Mods get you banned. It's the worst fucking dystopia I could have ever imagined being a 90's PC gamer.

I moved over to boardgames in the mid 00's, to continue to bond and compete as a slightly older adult male with my other adult male friends. Sometimes things got heated with our elevated testosterone and trying to find our place in the world. One time I almost came to blows with a guy after he got insanely drunk and made a bunch of outlandish accusations. A few years later I was best man at his wedding.

All this is now verboten. Less controllable, granted. But the last time I was in my old FLGS they almost kicked a guy out of the store for saying, in character, that he'd kill another player in a tabletop war game. Came down on him like a brick of shit, shouting "IF I EVER HEAR THAT LANGUAGE AGAIN YOU WILL BE PERMANENTLY BANNED FROM THE STORE!" Both players were absolutely shocked. They thought it was just banter.

Over the years, for some reason, that store went from staffing men approaching middle age who'd been gaming from before puberty, to a bunch of blue haired high school girls who routinely sneered at my purchases of GMT Games. I cannot comprehend the shift. I stopped going there.

And so it goes with literally every single thing too many men enjoy and bond over. It must be made terminally inclusive, so that women can participate and not have their feelings hurt. Which completely ruins it as a male bonding space. And so there will never be one again ever. At least not in the "free" world.

If the deep state can have its way even when /ourguy/ wins, then why does it also need to rig elections? Either elections don’t matter because the President has no power, or they do matter because the President actually has a lot of power, but Trump just failed to do anything with it.

Because it's easier to promote their agenda with a compliant figurehead than not? Because it expends less resources to get your way without a fight than with one? Because whatever the odds that you'll be able to roll a defiant president, they aren't 100%? Because rigging the election is the first line of defense, followed by bureaucratic defense in depth? Because making sure your ideological enemies appear to be defeated publicly by popular vote is an important aspect in demoralizing them? Because winning is nice, but lapping your opponent is even better?

I've never seen such an incurious or thought terminated argument here before in my life.

Not to mention that "core inflation" excludes housing and gas and food, as if home prices reaching unaffordable highs is some sort of triviality when The Economy Is Doing Great.

Yeah, it's literally impossible to square reported inflation numbers with the lived experience of watching housing costs explode 50-200% higher, rent explode 25-50% higher, or the prices of staple foods doubling. To whatever degree the CPI is or isn't a lie is besides the point. It's almost completely unrepresentative of how people are experiencing the cost of goods. I truthfully couldn't give a shit that flat screen TVs are cheaper. I'm not buying one every month.

The wife and I decided that instead of watching 3 hours of TV a night, we should read together, which has been a nice change. The wife suffers a bit from literary narcolepsy. Which is to say, reading puts her immediately to sleep. So the night turns into 10-20 minutes of us reading together, and then me reading for another 2 hours while she's asleep on the couch next to me. Which is fine by me.

I finished A Princess of Mars and Day of the Oprichnik this week.

I gotta admit, A Princess of Mars left me underwhelmed. All the descriptions were just so perfunctory and staid. You'd think it would be difficult to describe the fantastical flora and fauna of a living mars in a boring manner, but he pulled it off. The characters are frankly tedious and boring as well. Even the action is so-so. Possibly the most interesting part of the book is the fact that it came out in 1912. Which means the main character, a former confederate cavalry officer and southern gentlemen, is generally esteemed and presented as a noble and moral person. It also heavily features the canals of mars, which were believed to exist at the time he wrote it. Has some fun airship battles, which play out like naval battles since the era of flight, or aerial combat, was so new when he wrote it.

Was also interesting to read on wikipedia how the book influenced Heinlein, Arthur C Clarke, Ray Bradbury, James Cameron, Flash Gordon and Carl Sagan. But ultimately, I can't really give it a recommendation.

Day of the Oprichnik was wild. Really pulled me along, and I finished it in about two days. Checking the wiki for this book, something like 70% of it is analysis, so I'm sure most of the subtext of the book went over my head. But I enjoyed it all the same. Honestly I don't want to spoil anything about it, since going in completely blind was half the fun for me. I will say, it's a bewildering and perversely charming slice of life story in a dystopian Russia. It's also 100% from the first person perspective and an enforcer of the regime. So that's fun.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/outrage-erupts-after-windows-covered-up-in-detroit-during-ballot-count-officials-release-statement-on-alleged-reason-behind-decision

There is an elephant. Conservative election observers were kicked out of the room, and the windows were covered up so Democrat's could count the ballets in secret. Whatever the just so reasons given to justify this action, they are unacceptable. It's impossible to trust anything that occurred in that room now.

I donno man. My biases are to hate things more the further away from the metal, and the more layers of abstraction there are. I've never actually finished a game I started making either. Maybe if I were more open to shitty engines I would have.

I will say, I most enjoyed making a game when I was just keeping it simple with C and SDL2.

Who is building beautiful things these days in the public realm?

Beauty is wasted on the public. It's how we end up with statues that literally look like excrement. Anything for "the public" is such a nakedly corrupt process, it can't help but produce ugliness. And when individuals try to beautiful the public themselves, some megacorp comes along and inverts their charitable efforts with propaganda.

Learn to make beautiful things yourself, for your family. Especially for your children, which you should have. I was talking to someone a few weeks ago about the power and magic that a father's craftsmanship has for their children. Her dad made her all sorts of furniture that she treasures to this day. My wife refuses to let go of a frankly terrible desk that her father merely refinished. I remember being astounded at the relatively simple picnic table and swing set my father made for us. My kid adores the first shitty pine box I practiced making on my tablesaw.

It sure beats filling your home with cheap Chinese bullshit. I swear being surrounded by cheap bullshit manufactured by an evil strategic enemy hellbent on sabotaging your homeland is just bad for your soul.

Crab bucket mentality. Women love shitting on other women who have something they don't. Be it fitness, family, a loving husband, career, hobbies, you name it. There is always some frenemy or judgmental family member whispering evil in their ear, trying to poison them against their own happiness.

Unfortunately for women who aspire to greatness, or even just happiness and contentment, their higher agreeableness and neuroticism causes them to cave to their haters more often than they reach escape velocity from the crab bucket.

I've never in all my life seen a man effected the same way. I'm sure everything under the sun is possible. I'm sure some internet rando is going to say it happened to them and they have a penis. But I've never seen it.

She got what she voted for. In fact, she got what she weaponized her platform to convince everyone to vote for.

I know, I know, she's a Party member in good standing, and these policies were only supposed to sacrifice the proles in the name of progress. She was voting for this to happen to you, not her sweet prince and future Party apparatchik.

This won't change anything. At most it will be taken as a test of faith. That she sacrificed her son for The Party, and progress. At worst it will be directly blamed on red tribe... somehow. Some MAGA extremist got to him. Not unlike how Paul Pelosi's attacker, a drug addled insane criminal in a city where drug addled insane criminals are given completely free reign to do as they please, was smeared as somehow being a product of MAGA America and not SF's abysmal policing and keeping of public order.

So I've really been enjoying Against the Storm the last week. It was kind of a splurge when I got an email from GOG that it was out of Early Access, and it looked right up my alley.

It's basically a colony building game in the style of Settlers. You build your town workshop by workshop, home by home, and manually assign workers to various task. You are expected to beat the levels, not play them forever. I saw some people didn't like this? That seems really bizarre to me. Like, it's not that kind of game? Play one that is.

It has some fun mechanics that set it apart though. Has numerous fantasy races that each excel or have boosted resolve at different tasks. They also all have different needs to keep them happy. If they get unhappy enough they will leave your settlement. At lower difficulty settings this seems unlikely unless you really suck at the game. On "normal" it can be a real risk as the level progresses. Haven't tried the hard difficulty setting yet.

Because for various reasons, as you get further and further through a level, the "threat" from the forest grows, lowing your population's resolve. Random events pop up that you need to respond to, and sometimes as part of the choices you are presented with before consequences happen the least bad option is one that spikes this even further.

It has a fun meta progression. Instead of a simple campaign of hand crafted levels, each introducing a new mechanics, it has a rogue like design. At least that's what I see people say. I don't see it personally. I hear rogue like and that makes it seem like you are intended to fail until they give you enough honorable mention trophies to buy upgrades that let you win. I haven't lost once in this game, and it lets you pick the difficulty on a level by level basis. It's up to you to set your risk/reward threshold.

The individual levels are fun enough so far for me. The building you have access to are random, and so you'll rarely have a perfect supply chain. But if you establish trade routes and spend liberally at visiting traders, you can patch the holes you may have in it. At least enough to get past the finish line of the level. It's very much a dynamic and interesting puzzle, that engages me a lot more than going through the motions with the same 10 buildings every session.

Anyways, I guess that kind of turned into a mini review. Anyone else been into it lately?

You have a grievance at their hypocrisy, but I have a grievance at your hypocrisy. Most normie Jews have had no complaints at all about woke people saying similar or worse things about "white people." Some of those woke people were themselves Jews, and I suspect that if the universities capitulate, it will be by making Jews a special protected class, which would further from the outcome that I want. I've had a superposition of all these reactions going on.

This is the only possible outcome. Getting rid of DEI is an impossibility. Nobody with their hands on the levers of power actually wants to do it. All that will actually happen is Jews will get re-ranked inside DEI orthodoxy, or a parallel Jewish patron bureaucracy will be set up. And they will continue to collaborate throwing white people under the bus for literally everything.

They'll continue to vote blue no matter who, regardless of how this is not resolved by Nov 2024.

Tucker Carlson is the maddest of lads.

Among the speculation about why Tucker Carlson was fired, so suddenly, and without any actual reason, was this interview. He had one version of it taped for Fox News, and they still own that tape. So he had the Chief of the Capital Police come in again and tape the interview again.

This makes things notable in a few ways. I'm still digesting this interview, mind you. But for starters, there is the surface level that the Chief of the Capital Police feels like he was set up to fail. Tucker takes this further, and heavily implies or leads that the whole damned Jan 6th was a setup. Then on a deeper level, there is the fact that this is the second time they've done this song and dance, so the Chief of the Capital Police knows this is Tucker's angle, beyond a shadow of any doubt, and he's still doing the interview again.

But here is Zerohedge's takeaway from the interview.

It Was Pelosi: Former Capitol Police Chief Reveals 'Set Up' Behind January 6

Perhaps most damning is Sund's claim that then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) refused to authorize the deployment of the National Guard at the Capitol despite Sund's pleas, and that federal agencies withheld information and warning signs of potential dangers prior to the riot.

"This sounds like a set up to me," Carlson said, adding "I'm sorry, it does."

To which Sund replied:

"It gets better. So I beg and beg and he goes ‘well, I’m gonna walk down the hall and we’ll talk to the Secretary of Defense or whoever he’s gonna talk to. Right then I get a notification, oh, I’m still on the call, we have the shooting of Ashli Babbitt. And I said we have shots firing, I still remember yelling over the phone. We have shots firing on the U.S. Capitol, is that urgent enough for you now?"

According to Sund, the National Guard didn't show up until 6 p.m., hours after the fatal shooting of Babbitt. He also claimed that the Pentagon deployed resources to the homes of generals, but not the Capitol.

So I've spent three weeks selling short dated covered calls for COIN and walked away with a whopping $250 I didn't have before. Doesn't sound like much, but so far the stock has never come within $50 of my strike price. If, and I understand it's a big if, I keep this up for a whole year, I'll have earned over a 10% return on underlying assets worth $25,000-ish.

The first week was nerve wracking. The second week less so, except for one day where the stock shot up $30 intra-day with $50 left to go to my strike price. But with 3 days left, I sincerely doubted it wouldn't pull back. It did. The third week as soon as I sold my covered call a judge issued a decision allowing an SEC lawsuit to move forward and the price of the option I sold immediately got cut in half.

The more of these I successfully sell, the more I feel I have a buffer to close my position at a loss if things start going badly. I'm more shocked that there are enough degenerate gamblers out there willing to throw a Benjamin at the off chance COIN shoots up 50% in 4 days.

We shall see when I receive my comeuppance.

Among normies who are aware of the problem, I think most suffer from Jessie Singal syndrome. Jessie Singal has been covering the trans-insanity beat for a long, long time from the left. He has correctly identified much that is ethically horrifying about the current trans movement. He has correctly identified institutional problems that need to be stopped. But he's so locked into "Republicans bad, Democrats good", that when Republicans literally stop the things he has written extensively about, he is horrified that Republicans are "making the problem worse". He's convinced that if Republicans would just lay off, now, after 10 years of his side ignoring him and actively promoting all the problems he complains about, he could convince them to reverse course. But those darned evil, bigoted Republicans just won't stop making his side crazy.

The institutional sterilization and mutilation of children is a crime against humanity, the scale of which is difficult for the average normie to honestly contemplate. And especially the average normie Democrat. My extremely normie MSNBC consuming in laws just straight up disbelieve it. There side only does good things, and the way we describe it sounds like a bad thing, therefore it's not happening. It's right wing misinformation. We must have heard it from Fox News, always the boogie man, despite the fact that we don't even have cable. When we describe the things happening in our own state, they just mutter "Well I never heard about that." It doesn't help that the whole debate is shrouded in euphemisms like "trans healthcare", and lies about it being "fully reversible".

Among the true believers, charitably you have trans activist who mistakenly view every child through the lens of their own experiences growing up. Uncharitably, they've been horribly mutilated with no way back, and the only way to justify what was done to them is to perpetuate it. Otherwise they'd have to face the stark reality that their entire miserable existence was based on a lie. It's no wonder so many kill themselves.

And then you have the child castration fetishist in the medical community who write the standards of care.

Always been a gamer first, so I've been stuck on Windows. Win10 currently. But god damned if the enshitification of Windows isn't driving me to Linux when Win10 lapses out of support. I have a spare computer I keep meaning to put Linux on just to start acclimating to trying to game on Linux.

You know another benefit of the suburbs, or even the exurbs, over the city?

Political stability.

I currently live in a relatively sparsely populated county that virtually forbids development. It has a very stable population of people with 30 year mortgages and very few apartments or rentals. Entryist cannot just rent here en mass, and start voting for policies to the ruin of the rest of the community.

Having lived in a denser, more politically volatile region my entire adult life, I did not realize what a psychological burden this was until it was lifted off of me. I sincerely hope it stays this way. It probably won't. The joke in my region, is that the region I left is coming. I mean, they aren't wrong. I came from there after all. I was talking to another dad while our kids played at a park in a similar situation. We of course had to jokingly add that we don't count. He bought a tractor and I have backyard chickens. We aren't like those other transplants who just want to turn our new home into the shithole our last home was.

During the last midterm, I think my county voted something like 80%+ Republican. However, we got gerrymandered such that just enough of the densely populated hellhole I left has been added to our county's electoral map to consistently swing things D. So maybe it just won't matter anymore who lives here or what we want. We've been permanently denied representation.

I constantly wonder what it is about the dumb people looking alike that makes it politically salient. Just our inbuilt tribalism I suppose.

I just keep thinking back to my time in school. I don't recall encountering a single minority until highschool. We still had dumb kids. Nobody gave a fuck. There will always be dumb kids and smart kids. They turn into dumb adults and smart adults. Sometimes even the smart kids turn into dumb adults. When everybody looked the same, it simply was not a political matter. It was a fact of life.

I simply do not understand what The Plan is these days. The average IQ of African Americans, near as I can tell, is incontrovertibly lower than the rest of America. You can argue over causes all day. Whether it's cultural, environmental or genetic. Even if we had that answer to all our mutual satisfaction, it changes nothing about the population we have, and need to live with, today.

All that said, I simply don't understand how you convince a population that believes "We wuz kangs", and successfully convince them that they are probably ending up at about the correct station in life given their individual IQs. That there will never be as many blacks in the most intellectually rigorous fields as other races. There will be some, because every population has a distribution. But don't be shocked when all your asian classmates (if they haven't fled the community) are getting accepted to colleges while you are joining the army. If they'll even have you.

Frankly the only workable solution I see any longer is Scott Adam's sage advice.

You know, a part of me wants to go "Turnabout is fair play". Because all this woke capital bullshit has finally made me believe that there is no ethical consumption under capitalism. You should not give your money to people who hate you.

I always thought those phrases were just Marxist seethe and cope. Now I get it. Because it's palpable how much the present ruling regime in buearocacy and capital management hate me. The answer still isn't communism. The answer is to stop consooming. At least as much as you can. And try to support artisans who genuinely support your values where you can. Or buy used to deprive the company of income. I also feel no moral qualms about piracy of legacy IP when some new conglomerate buys it up and decides to hold it hostage and vandalize it, while beating me over the head with propaganda.

Virginia is dominated by Northern Virginia, which is a Washington DC suburb. For all intents and purposes, Virginia has been colonized by the federal government and votes with it's interest 99% of the time. Democrats have to be incredibly fucking retarded to squander their natural advantages, and they managed it back when Northam was elected. But for the most part, it doesn't matter.

Schools were probably the most salient issue that peeled off enough normies. And it was an uphill battle the entire time. The news lied, the schools lied, the politicians lied. And every time the truth eventually came out they just lied more. When they effectively lost the public relations battles, and the legal battles, they just dug their heels in and went "nuh uh". Nearly every school district is defying our Governors order with respect to trans students, knowing full well the school administrators will keep their jobs longer than our governor. It's tied up in courts, and even if the schools somehow lose, it's not their money they pay out. It's ours. But they are betting, probably correctly, that they can run out the clock until a Democrat takes over and drops the cases.

One county near me hit derangement levels I didn't think were possible, and voted in an even more pro-"pornography in schools" slate of board candidates. One took his oath of office on a literally stack of pornographic "childrens" books. Everyone clapped.

I've totally given up. Starting next year we are homeschooling our children. We were on the fence, taking our chances with private school. But after the most recent federal reinterpretation of Title IX, it's obvious no institution in any state is safe. Every single day we meet parents at parks doing the same thing. A not insignificant proportion of those parents are (or should I say were?) teachers themselves, and are choosing to protect their children from what they've seen the education system in our state become.

Maybe. Or maybe you can't see the forest for the trees.

Subsisting off the substandard castoffs of an open enemy is the behavior of the conquered. Reject it.

An awful lot of people believe that low intelligence logically implies moral inferiority. That if you are unintelligent, you are a bad person. It is a moral failing to not be smarter.

I think most people, correctly, view the unintelligence as a disaster waiting to happen, that they don't want to be around when it happens. I think many people, especially here, fail to truly appreciate the qualitative difference being stupid brings. It's not like an RPG where you rolls are harder, but you can still occasionally have a streak of good RNG.

For example, lets look at what you can expect of African Americans in their measured average IQ range.

80-89 — Below average

Above the threshold for normal independent functioning. Can perform explicit routinized hands-on tasks without supervision as long as there are no moments of choice and it is always clear what has to be done. Assembler, food service.

This is also the I.Q. range most associated with violence. Most violent crime is committed by males from this range. This does not imply that all males in this range are violent, nor that all violent males are in this range. But when the modal I.Q. of a group is in this range, one may expect trouble with with many male members of that group. When the modal I.Q. of a society or population is raised upward of this range, violence decreases as fewer males fall in this range then, given the shape of an even remotely normal distribution. When the modal I.Q. of a society is below this range to begin with though, raising it may increase violence. The causal mechanism behind the (statistical) relation between crime and below-average I.Q. is likely that lower I.Q. levels inherently tend to go with having less impulse control, being less able to delay gratification, being less able to comprehend moral principles like the Golden Rule, and being overstrained by the cognitive demands of society.