ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
No bio...
User ID: 626
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
8hr ago
Compare it to individual houses in a neighborhood. A family's rules reign supreme in their own home, no one can demand they do something. But outside that house, they don't hold that power and have to negotiate if they want anything done.
But that's why it's a bad analogy. There can be subcultures, or countries that contain different cultures by region, but these days there usually is a common culture uniting the entire country, so it's not something confined like a household vs/ a neighborhood. It's also not something based solely on negotiation, and can be quite oppressive. Progressives are usually the first to point this out with things like homophobia, strict gender roles, etc.
For me, I'd much rather hear "I don't want to be a part of your country / culture! Leave me alone, I'll make my own with like-minded people", than to hear demands of being in the same polity from someone with completely incompatible values. Same energy as having a stalker that deluded themselves they're in a relationship with you.
Assuming you're being sincere (probably you are), I will just tell you: the two terms are not equivalent.
Fair enough, I had no idea. I've never even heard the word used before Trace did in the comment directly above mine, and it sounded completely innocuous to me, so I thought I'd borrow it.
You casually call him a "prog," which you and he both understand to mean that he is in the enemy camp
Just to be clear: no I didn't. I meant progressive in terms of worldview. That's something I consider beyond political camps. I believe Hlynkaesque alt-right progressives do actually exist.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
8hr ago
I think you overestimate the degree to which most of us "care" that The Motte becomes A Thing in the zeitgeist, and underestimating the level of effort it takes just to get volunteers to keep things running.
Sorry, this did end up sounding like I'm criticizing you guys for not working enough. I know it's hard to get volunteers (source: me, promising myself every week I'll start contributeing to the ccodebase). I also don't want the Motte to become "a thing" at all. I kind of dread the idea of reddit-tier newcomers swarming in here. But I would like it to keep chugging along.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
9hr ago
That you would struggle to understand it is a bit baffling.
Well again, I'm not struggling to understand, I just disagree.
Like, c'mon: "I don't even want to live in a group of hundreds of millions of people that includes both me and you. Your ideals disgust me on a fundamental level. But hey, now that you've broken out, where's the promotion for us hometown lads?" Surely you can see why I'd find that a bit rich.
No? I don't know what to tell you... You can find me as disgusting as you want, but If I find some interesting bit of info at your Substack, I'll drop a link to it when sharing it with others. If I forget to do so, and rake in a million views from it, I'll probably feel pretty shitty about it.
You cannot at once reject someone as unworthy to share a polis with you and expect them to treat your companionship as meaningful.
I don't really expect anything from how your treatment of my companionship. I'm just trying to figure out what your grievances are, and figure out what I can learn from them, and if I can improve. But this particular one... like I said I'm not sure on what grounds you're expecting anything more than "sorry to hear that, bro". Like I said I consider it 100% normal to want to live in a country that respects your fundamental values, so if you're going to get sufficiently values-diverse group together, you will inevitably end up with people not wanting to share a country with each other. It is again quite strange for me to see you insist on this, since like I said you expressed the same sentiment yourself, or at least I don't know how else to understand "I want to live in a culture where my family and I can live according to our values and build alongside people who share those values". Maybe there's supposed to be a difference between "country" and "culture", but no matter how I slice it, it sounds at most like the same thing with extra steps.
The friend-enemy distinction matters.
It matters when you're doing political activism. This place is very explicitly not a place for that, so I don't see the issue.
Put bluntly, I see you personally as wanting to put me on the enemy side of the friend-enemy distinction, repeatedly defend that choice, and then post in resentment about a lack of friendship resulting from that. Choose one.
Quite frankly it's not even about friendship. I saw what you did as akin to meme accounts on Twitter reposting some webcomic or another, but diligently removing the artist's signature. The analogy doesn't quite fit since the post in question wasn't written here, but I can't help but parse the situation this way. It's not even that much of a big deal as far as I'm concerned, so I don't get why you insist on portraying me as making unreasonable demands.
It's obnoxious for people to treat me as a representative of a coalition that rejects me and that I reject, and it is a specific coalition, not simply a relative term.
If you want to tell me how it came off to you that's fair enough, but you can't tell me how I meant it.
Using it suggests neither understanding nor a wish to understand
That's a bit ironic, given the above.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
11hr ago
Re: the FC thing—that was mostly relevant as a reminder that if that sentiment was broadly shared here, then I should not put my energy into building this space. If the zeitgeist of a space is “we don’t even want to live in a country with you,” it sure isn’t the sort of space I want to put my creative energy into.
Well, it all feels a bit out of left field to me. I never asked for putting your creative energy into here, and where you decide to put it doesn't even require justification.
I thought we were talking about the general sense of betrayal you feel with this community, and I thought this was supposed to be an example of what makes you feel this way. If it isn't - my bad. If it is - I have trouble seeing anything hurtful about that statement. It's normal for people to live in a country where there fundamental values are respected. I'm pretty sure you expressed such a sentiment yourself.
The map is that after years of watching you and yours form overtly and obviously incorrect models of who I am and what I do, then cling to them after you should very well know better, I prefer to spend my time engaging with people who don’t do that.
You don't think you might be reading just a little bit too much into a single word? I never attributed the excesses of progressivism to you, or dismissed your work against them. It was a shorthand, and it's a relative term, and I distinctly remember you playing it for a joke, that a gay furry is the most conservative person at your law school. Is it really so wild you still look progressive to someone from a different background?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
13hr ago
“In your digital hometown” is the key phrase you excluded.
I can edit it in, it doesn't change much for me.
But “cancellation” and online mob dynamics mostly have any impact when it’s people you care about and have longstanding positive relationships with.
Sure, which is why I understand why the LoTT affair bothered you so much, and why I explicitly mentioned it. But you said FC's post bothered you just as much, this is the part I quoted, and was responding to. There was no cancellation there, and no yelling. Now you're responding like this was about only the LoTT thing all along?
But yeah, that even here you label me as a “prog” is the sort of thing that makes me inclined to say goodbye and good riddance to all of this.
Oh for the love of... If I took offence at everyone calling me a "trad" we wouldn't get very far. If you don't like being called that, I'm sorry, I take it back. But I'd also like a map of this minefield I'm supposed to be navigating.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
17hr ago
That was one of the moments that holds the most salience for me, yeah, alongside this from @FCfromSSC. This forum was very much the place I came into my own as a writer, which made it much more painful for me to hear how people saw me when I strayed from the anti-prog line. It's no small thing to watch a large crowd in your digital hometown, so to speak, cheer someone on as he emphasizes he wants nothing to do with you or yours
You know, sometimes I think this place was doomed from the start, and it's very existence is a fluke stemming from the zeitgeist of a particular time and space (which itself was a fluke). The idea of getting people with fundamentally different values to sit down and talk is nice and theory, and interesting things can come out of it, but it seems sooner or later it runs into an obvious issue of the values being, in fact, fundamentally different. We naively believed that this is just a bump in the road. Some differences make us angry and it's just a question getting past the anger, other things are just a misunderstanding, and it's a question of explaining yourself better. But with fundamental differences we understand each other perfectly, and still think the other side is wrong. Any anger is a result of understanding, rather than misunderstanding, but quite often it doesn't even enter the picture. In fact, to the extent it did, I think it's the fault of the rationalist ethos.
Such is the case here. I think I understand where you're coming from, but I think you're just wrong. It is a small thing to watch a large crowd cheer someone on as he emphasizes he wants nothing to do with me and mine. I get that it's more Impactful for you, but I can't muster up more than "sorry to hear that, bro".
it stings quite a bit when people I think should know better treat me as something I'm not,
Yes. I think that sort of behavior is out of line. It can stem from a mistake, so it's possible it happened in good faith, but it should be promptly corrected when it comes out.
or reject me for who I am.
But this I don't get. It feels like a very luxurious belief to me, and I think it contradicts the very mission of this forum.
Or more than that it might even be literally impossible to avoid. My impression is that you, Chris Pratt, and whole bunch of other progs routinely practice rejecting people for who they are, except you do it in a roundabout way that comes off as insincere to people like me.
You mentioned previously a concern about an attitude of "I'm going to cash in on a post from my niche hangout, and not give credit, because I'm afraid I'll get cancelled." I do think my behavior demonstrates pretty clearly that I'm not afraid of controversial associations, not even of attaching my name and career to them.
I can explain what happened here. I wasn't trying to ascribe any motivation to you, I was just putting myself in your shoes. I am afraid of cancellation, so that's why I would try to hide my associations with this place. I'd probably have no chance to guess your actual motivations, even if I knew / remembered how you feel about this place, because that isn't how I'd react, and I don't know you well enough to guess how you parse the world.
And yes, of course if the users or mods explicitly want me to promote it in some form, I'm happy to take a look. But yeah, my memories of the Motte have been bittersweet for years now.
That's great to hear! Though I don't know if I'll ever be appointed the Director of Marketing for this place.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
You want to send Palestinians to Argentina?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
No shade to you personally—I have no idea if you were one of the ones who piled on in the least pleasant moments
If you're referring to the Libs Of TikTok affair, I didn't pile on, but if I'm honest this is mostly due to having nuked my Reddit account by that point. I was also quite salty at that (and I believe I disclosed that). Otherwise I believe our interactions were always respectful, including on subjects we disagree vehemently about, like surrogacy (or at least I hope you recall them in a similar positive way).
In any case if part the reason you don't feel particularly inclined to promote this place is because you feel bitter after things got a bit hot, and hit too close to home one time too many, that's perfectly understandable.
On the other hand, maybe we could alleviate that with some sweet, sweet cash! Eh... eh? ;)
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
I think I can get you the disputed amount (the article makes it sound like that info is public) but not in percentage terms.
This is a very good question, and I'd say people should ask similar ones about positive claims about Elon. People throw (unverified) Starlink growth and revenue numbers at me, ignoring the fact that they're meaningless without the costs part of the equation.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Well, again, they are scheduled to go from zero to Mars this year. How well it goes is anyone's guess, and I'll admit that if their launch goes about as good as SpaceX's that will be very humiliating for them.
But if it works, it will prove what I'm suspecting - Elon's "iterative design" and "move fast and break things" are memes, and an anemic pace can easily prove to be faster.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
It's all fair enough, I did mean it when I said you guys don't really owe us promotion, though in a similarly complicated manner, I can't stop feeling salty about it.
If it helps, you're not even the first person that comes to mind when I seethe. I can't forget listening to some DR podcast, and seeing Kulak on one of the episodes. As they chat away he mentions ymeshkout: "and my friend at The Bailey podcast..." - and there I go screaming at the monitor "have you thought about name dropping the other part of that medieval fortification, you selfish bastard!"
At the end of the day it's not a big deal, there's other ways of marketing, and like I said, we're not even trying.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Also, because FSD is amazing
I don't get it. Did he get it from them? Has it been a part of how OpenAI got to where they are today? Otherwise what does it have to do with them?
Also if FSD is so amazing, why is he not using it as an argument in quarterly earnings calls, and instead keeps promising actual self-driving at some point in the future (next year, for sure this time!)? Why has he gone so far as to say Tesla is worth nothing without (actual) self-driving?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Elon was long ago pushed out of OpenAI. But this is not important for the exceptional influence he had on the course of multiple industries
Ok, but don't bring up OpenAI as an argument for Elon's greatness, only fallback to other industries when I ask what he had to do with it.
That he funded/cofounded OpenAI in the first place is crazy.
But why though? Overhearing a bunch of nerds planning on doing nerdy things at some cocktail party, and deciding to back them, is not crazy at all. Unless he did more. Did he?
For the same reason all his endeavors can now crash and burn and it wouldn’t matter
That would be the "Elon already deserves a trophy" argument I mentioned earlier. Fine, I hereby officially award Elon with Greatest Entrepreneur in the World Trophy! But I think it does matter if his companies crash, and I think they will.
That Elon memed other car companies kicking & screaming into a future where e-cars are not anymore a mere novelty, but instead seen as inevitable
They're not inevetible. Some people seem to like them, but others have to be forced to switch by using government force to enshittify ICEs, if not outright banning them, like they're talking about in the EU. I'm pretty sure they'll end up doing squat for global warming, and battery disposal will turn out to be an environmental disaster of some sort, making the whole reason for their existence moot.
this would not discredit Musk, instead this would be a triumph as his competitors would either not exist or wouldn’t be as good as without him.
I'm fine with the claim "Musk is great because he inspired a billionaire space race", though that depends on how the whole thing pans out. It's not out of the question that the whole "private-sector space" idea crashes with SpaceX.
Using Methan as propellant?
Why is that bonkers?
Using cheap steel? Proofing that the failed Soviet N1 concept is viable with modern tech? (...) eliminating landing legs and instead trying to catch Starship?
Can we please limit our praise to things he accomplished, and not involve things he promised to do?
Other rocket companies, Europe and China will have to copy them.
You mean copy their actual tech, their paradigm, or the general ideas of reusability?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Well, aside from me not seeing how that would compromise the mission, from what I can tell neither does Zorba.
If there's too many newcomers you can just stop advertising until things calm down.
Putting the vault on substack and having people blast that out
Yeah, that's a pretty good idea too!
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
I'm pretty sure SpaceX is going down as well. Admiteddly contracts for BlackOps satellites, and Jewish Space Laserss are a wildcard, but if Bezos proves he can compete, that's when I'm betting the cascade starts.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Ok, so your contention is that they're already making massive profits because they revolutionized space launches, and Starship is just a way to make even more money?
Would you consider contractors not being paid on time an indication that their financial situation is not that great?
But I don't havy any good proposals on how to fix it either.
Do not get me started...
We have no less than 3 posters that broke out to a wider audience, I'm already quietly seething that none of them decided on their own to promote us on any of the platforms they have access to. But it's ok, they made it big on their own, not like they owe anything to us, or anything.
So then I'm seething even more that no one whosl's running the site decided to outright bribe them to promote us. With this amount of recgniziable names hailing from here, you could easily market the place as a dojo for Substack starlets. Yeah, yeah, so it would cost some money, give me your Paypal, and I'll be happy to chip in.
And then you realize that we don't have to stop at people who came from here. You can advertise at the scores upon scores of politics / debate youtubers and streamers. These dudes are still shilling Raid Shadow Legends tier shit for chump change. We already have "invite" functionality, so you can attribute registration to specific people, and literally pay them per new user.
Man, we're not even trying.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
Almost all the replies I'm seeing are related to SpaceX, but Musk has multiple businesses.
Yes! I wanted to bring it up in this comment but it ended up slipping my mind. This discussion is useful in figuring out where Elon's strengths and weaknesses are. Like you said, from the replies it seems like Falcon 9 and Starlink are his strong points.
Is there an effective way to "short" him? What's the benefit to doing so
Well, the only "short" I'd urge people to do is to avoid falling on any swords for the guy. He (rightfully) won a lot of goodwill with his takeover of Twitter, but I'm worried people are too defensive of him. It might all be very silly in the end, I doubt preventing the establishment to have a gotcha on the contrarians will work, even if it's achievable... but, I dunno, I feel like this will end up being a pretty big egg on some people's faces.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
It is!
I have a question - if Falcon Heavy is so much cheaper than Falcon 9, why are they relying so much on the latter for Starlink?
I think quite the opposite – if you get the cost low enough, sending stuff to space becomes a high school science project and everyone wants to do it. Lots of amateur CubeSats in this vein.
Can we do some back of the envelope calculations here? How low does the price have to go, for people to start launching satellites en-masse? How many would they want to launch? How many clients would SpaceX have to get to make a decent profit at such a low price point? How much can they launch before triggering Kessler Syndrome?
Maybe you're right. To clarify, your position is that Starship will never make a successful orbital payload delivery? Or that it will never land successfully?
The bets I placed are on the former, and I admit that it's not impossible I will end up losing it. Fire-and-forget is a lot easier, after all, but I don't think Starship development is going well.
Right now they can't, can they? New Glenn is having its own developmental issues
Hence, why I brought up EscaPADE. If they pull it off, that might trigger questions and concerns from SpaceX investors and clients.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
Even without Starship, there is no other company that can hope to do anything like those numbers anytime soon.
Ok, why the push for Starship then? My contention is that Starship is one of the galaxy-brained promises Elon will never deliver on, and that this will be the end of him. If Falcon 9 is more than enough for them to rake the cash in, why not just rake the cash in, instead of blowing $1 billion on every rocket that goes boom?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
To me, being a futurist brand guy that's well positioned to capture value in the growth of the transition to EVs, development of space, and AI is a pretty fantastic position. And unlike Microsoft, Elon still has big bets to make.
I don't think Elon's position in EV's or space is as good as Microsoft's was in computers, and for that matter I don't think EV's or space in general are going to be that big of a deal. I don't have an opinion on AI yet, but then again I don't understand why people are acting like OpenAI == Elon Musk. Does he still have a stake in it? Why was he using "give me my compensation package, or I'll leave Tesla to found an AI company" as an argument?
Anyway, you making any bets?
I have 2 outstanding bets with fellow motteposters about Starship ever making it to orbit. If you absolutely insist, you can join in, I think I can take 1 or 2 more, but I'd like to diversify. You think they'll ever make it to the moon? What about robo-taxis?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
That’s the thing. I don’t think it’s a reasonable opinion at all.
For the record @FCfromSSC is 100% right about my motivation. The difference between me and Holocaust deniers is that I hope I'm wrong. Like I said my pride is a small price to pay for getting to see Earth from orbit, before I die.
The guy has founded three different companies with huge market values. SpaceX trades hands at over $200 billion in private markets, Tesla has a public market value of over $200 billion, OpenAI has a weird market structure as a nonprofit but if was a normal corporate probably would have trades happening at over $200 billion market cap.
Since you brought it up, I'll also ping @Belisarius - this is why my arguments sounded like they're about financial analysis.
Look, my entire point is that the value of his companies is propped up by promises of crazy technologies he's not going to deliver on. When that becomes apparent to the public, it's over, they're crashing. OpenAI is probably exempted, but does he have any actual control over it? I thought it was all Sam Altman.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
I recognize this as a valid comeback, but I think their patience has limits. Politically the blob has turned against him. so the moment they find an alternative the gets ejected. This is why I think the EscaPADE mission is potentially the mark when the tide turns for him.
I don't follow... there has to be commonality for domination to work. Some have pulled it off, but it tends to be hard to oppress minorities, when you're not the majority.
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