ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
No bio...
User ID: 626
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2hr ago
I agree with your general sentiment, but I think he's right? Source: Settings -> Notifications -> App Settings?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3hr ago
People get autofiltered when they accumulate downvotes. I don't know if it was always like that, or we pulled some "feature" from rDrama that doesn't fit us, but it seems like this is how things are now.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3hr ago
Looks like you replied to a comment that was not yet approved. And since we're on the subject - can you also approve my latest post?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
16hr ago
Hasn’t climate protest worked because the earth has actually gotten warmer the last 20 years so it feels true?
Something being true doesn't explain the dynamic he's describing. On one hand there's plenty of things that are true and feel true, and are opposed by the elites, rather than having their full backing. On the other hand the climate protest movement offers no solutions, and as he said are only used as a way to consolidate power, and to show what the elites are willing to destroy.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Unlike in the case of WN, they would presumably not try to lure me or anyone in my circles with a dubious promise that they are fighting for our benefit; it would be beyond any doubt that it is not so.
So if I understand you correctly you're only applying this standard to groups who presume to speak in your name and/or fight for your interests? If so, wouldn't that mean all they have to do, for you to drop the question, is to say something like "don't worry about it, we're not including you"?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
I hold any ethno-identity interest group that seeks control over a larger group I want to be a member of to this standard. If I sought to be part of a black community, I would apply the standard to BLM;
I don't follow. Are you seeking to be a part of a white ethnostate? If not, why are you leaving BLM off the hook?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
5d ago
"people fail at dealing with complex things, are happy to exaggerate for rhetoric and ignore claimed implications" is nothing new
That's the thing, I don't know if it counts as a complex problem. It's a "you're picking small high-hanging fruits, when you haven't even started picking the big low-hanging ones" situation.
only for peasants, private flights are not going to be affected
luxury cars are exempt
I think I'm radicalized enough as it is, you don't need to encourage me more.
Nevertheless, you have weird people going with full denial of established physics and screaming about 2nd law of thermodynamics without understanding it, and fail to interpret simple graphs.
Yeah, contrarianism is a hell of a drug, ask me how I know. But this is why I think the establishment was, and is, playing a dangerous game, burning trust to meet short-term goals. We're probably gonna keep getting more and more people questioning the most basic things around them.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
5d ago
Preindustrial CO2 rate was under 300 parts per million.
2000 it was 370 ppm
2024 it reached 420 ppm
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co-emissions-by-region
It is skewing to the last decades: half of the emmissions from 1750 to now were emitted in the last 30 years.
Well, that's concerning...
On the other hand, excuse me, but how am I supposed to take anyone screaming at me about global warming seriously? All the "adults in the room" are coming up with galaxy-brained plans to limit air travel and ban internal combustion engines, when the vast majority of that trend is coming from Asia? Why are we building solar farms in clouded regions of the northern hemisphere instead of chipping in for the nuclear electrification of the developing world?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
5d ago
I don't want to get you on a no-fly list, but purely hypothetically how would one accomplish that with a submarine and Twenty Good Men?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
5d ago
That's how it's supposed to work, though I heard somewhere that chronic nausea is a common side effect (yay, even more weight loss!).
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
5d ago
I hate it when my clever jokes turn out be me dumbly not getting a reference. But I learned something today, so thanks for that!
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
5d ago
Yeah I see what you mean about winning a few Keynesian beauty contests
Show me those AD-AS curves, baby...
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
5d ago
On one level, the charge of hyperagency / hypoagency framework isn't a strawman as I'm not saying it's the argument being made, it's what I am characterizing the argument's form as in a meta-contextual description.
But it's exactly your characterization of the argument's form that I'm objecting to, not any specific claim you're making about the lead-up to the conflict, or the invasion itself. Hyperagency / hypoagency is something that's wrong on it's face. Generally in life there's few situations where someone has all the power while someone else has none, let alone in geopolitics, let alone when the country with hypoagency is supposed to be one like Russia. The reason why I'm objecting to the characterization is that portraying the argument's form this way allows for dismissing the actual argument, without touching it's substance. So even if this isn't technically a strawman, it ends up working in a very similar way.
A more accurate characterization of the argument's form is something like a "pawn sacrifice". Every game with even the most basic strategic element will involve making a move, and hoping your opponent will respond in a way that you can take advantage of. That's what the US / the West is being "accused" of here, except it's not really much of an accusation, because that's just politics. Nowhere in there is "hypoagency" being attributed to any actor. If we go with the example of Johnson's visit, I'll apologize for intuitively reaching for a portrayal of the affair that makes it look like the west was imposing it's will, but it doesn't matter whether they did it by screaming or sweet-talk, threats or bribery, the point is that they made a move hoping for certain results. If the whole thing ends up being a quagmire for Russia, and Ukraine gets out of it with just a few bruises, I will have to tip my hat to the western establishment, and congratulate them for a game well played. If it turns out to be a disaster for Ukraine, on the other hand, they will end up looking incompetent. If it turns out they always knew it would be a disaster for Ukraine they will end up looking callous. You can attribute the majority of agency in the situation to Russia, and I don't see how it changes the above calculus.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
5d ago
other than claims generally fronted by Russian-originated sources
Just to clarify, the most recent source of the claim, that I'm familiar with, was some high-ranking Ukrainian official. There were also some German politicians saying things to this effect, but I think they were from the terminally pro-Russian faction, so I was taking that with a grain of salt until more recently.
OTOH, I probably oversold how confident I am in the claim, this is in the "something that popped up on my feed, and I never followed up" category.
appeal to the hyperagency/hypoagency framework
But on this I have to push back. Framing it as a "the hyperagency/hypoagency framework" is a strawman, or a weakman at best. The point being made here isn't that Russians literally couldn't make another choice, it's that an American / Western move put them in a position where war seems like the best of all possible options. Normally this isn't a controversial framework, the US was justifying it's own invasion of Iraq in exactly the same way, not long ago.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
5d ago
To me, this is a bonus: I welcome most if not all animal sounds
It would be nice of dogs could STFU somewhat, but otherwise I agree.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
5d ago
OTOH, this makes a mockery of conservative opposition to cancel culture.
How long do you have to warn people "don't do this or the same tactics will be used against you when the tide turns" before it's ok to make good on the warning?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
6d ago
I do appreciate the disagreements, for what it's worth. You argue straight and clearly, and even if I remain stubborn, it tends to be the kind of disagreement that triggers some introspection.
And in any case laughing at my jokes will always trump disagreement.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
7d ago
Two can play this game - why did he go there if he had nothing to say, offer, or threaten with?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
7d ago
I never said they were "hell bent".
"Either you go balls to the wall with this now, with Europe's and USA's full support, and potential rewards if you manage to win, or you're out on your own" is a pretty compelling carrot/stick combination. I don't see how Brexit enters into the picture if the Western establishment was of more or less of one mind on this.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
7d ago
How am I supposed to know? It's not like I was in those behind-closed-doors meetings, but that those meetings took place in response to the Russian peace offer is not in question, as far as I understand. I would imagine he did it the way countries usually do - the threat of withholding some carrot, or applying some stick, or both.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
7d ago
I'm not sure why you're reiterating your point about it being bad, when I explicitly said that it's not about that.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
7d ago
lol you can't just drop a wiki to comparative advantage. Robots and computers can do everything better, and cheaper. More so by the hour, I'm sorry.
Yes I can, because even in your response you're not addressing the point of comparative advantage. It usually is still more profitable for a person, and even country, that does everything better, to trade with a country that does everything worse. There's a reason why the west is actually buying manually mined cobalt.
99% of mined resources are coming from almost fully automated mines, why are you so focused on the few that have a terrible human cost?
Like I said in the other comment, my comment had nothing to do with the relative amount of resources produced through manual labor, I was just responding to the various AI scenarios put forward by rationalists.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
7d ago
It's not a question of it being good or bad, it's a question of not being able to understand the outrage at being forced to fight and die as others are out having fun.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
7d ago
If the Ukrainian government wanted to surrender, they could do so tomorrow without asking for anyone's permission.
Other countries have agency too.
Agency doesn't mean free choice. When they tried mere negotiations, Boris Johnson flew over to scream at them until they stopped.
We barely have any volunteers to implement features we actually want, so I doubt this one, which literally no one, from mods to posters, really wants, came from us.
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