ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
No bio...
User ID: 626
I was trying to find the citation for my anecdotal example I wanted to use, to, kinda sorta, back you on this, but alas it's one of these things I saw on one of the zillions of 3 hour podcasts I listen to daily, and cant locate easily anymore, so ultimately the source is: trust me, bro.
So there was this interview I was listening to with some sweet old lady recounting her life as some sort of activist. Unrelated to the main topic of the conversation, she mentioned how her husband started courting her when she was 16 or so, and he was 20-something*, exactly the sort of relationship that you seem to argue for here. My first reaction was "yikes", but through the interview she seemed to have nothing but love and respect for her husband, and she also mentioned they had something like 5 kids together, and each of them had a lot of kids in turn, so she's now surrounded by approximately 7 zillion grandchildren and great-grandchildren. At the end of it, I found it hard to say this was all somehow wrong.
*) Or he might have actually waited until she turned 18, but he was definitely orbiting her since she was in her mid-teens.
That said, for something like this to work, I think the conversation has to be a lot bigger than "age of consent", and basically you'd have to RETVRN to traditional sexual mores: no sex before marriage, no divorce, the parents have to co-sign the relationship. I think a lot of the "ick factor" comes from people assuming the 20-something is just looking for sex - which is a reasonable assumption - and the the 15 year old girl is naive, and easily taken advantage of - which is another reasonable assumption. If, on the other hand, we assume the guy is looking for love and for a way to start a family... well I'm sure lots of people would still complain, but I think it's more defensible than lowering the age of consent, and normalizing big age-gap relationships with the current sexual mores in effect.
Desantis was certainly not the only Republican to combat wokeness. Are you referring to him trying to build an entire alternative ecosystem here?
Maybe, it depends on what you mean. He's the only one that comes to mind that combats it in a comprehensive and systemic way, rather than just making a lot of noise about an issue of the day, but otherwise letting the woke run all the institutions.
Biden may have been President, but he had woke staffers running roughshod over a lot of policies both in theory and in practice.
This is because the centrist democrat wing is woke, so they pick woke staffers.
Trump's victory accelerated the process of woke burnout that was already occurring. It was not the cause, it was the death-knell.
Nope. There is no woke burnout. Like I said they kinda dialed it down for the moment, until they win another election. And only kinda, if you listen, you can hear all he insanity coming out of the usual places.
We apparently have one more update on the Braveheart Incident. Previous discussions:
- Original story
- self_made_human's update, where he and several posters chastized anyone who believed the pro-Braveheart story. "Of course, if you prefer your axes in the hands of twelve-year-olds fighting imaginary Bulgarian sex pests, I suppose nothing I write will convince you otherwise."
- my update pointing out that the girl might actually have been defending her sister from a sex pest.
The latest update is a short article from the BBC:
Prosecutors allege Ilia Belov, 22, approached and followed four girls, who were aged between 12 and 14, and made sexual remarks to them before seizing one of the girls and pushing her to the ground.
His co-accused Nadjedzha Belova, 20, is accused of repeatedly seizing and pulling another of the girls by the hair, dragging her to the ground, and punching her on the head to her injury.
This is throwing me for a loop. The good news is that unlike the local news articles I cited previously, the BBC actually names the accused, the bad news is originally the adult involved in the incident was identified as "Fatos Ali Dumana", and now I have no idea whether we're talking about the same guy, and it was just a nickname, or it was a completely different person. A quick google search only turned up some indie (somewhat tinfoily) blog post, where it is indeed claimed that "Fatos Ali Dumana" is just an alias, and that the perps real name is Ilia Belov. What speaks in it's favor is that the post is dated September 12, 2025, so way before this current BBC article (and here's an archive.org snapshot to corroborate), so it's not someone trying to use the latest info to portray the original story as true. Other than that I only found some dude on Reddit urging people to look up a Facebook reel:
It's the same guy, check FB reel number 5556886374377640 - "Fatos Ali Dumana" shares a UK driving licence in the name of Ilia Kostaoinov Belov.
I don't have Facebook, so I can't confirm.
Either way, the accusations put forward by the prosecutors seem largely consistent with "Braveheart" story - girls got sexually harassed, assaulted, and one of them went for makeshift weapons in order to defend her sister / friends.
I am sure that everyone who wagged their fingers saying how "nothing will convince us otherwise", how "they knew something was off", how it's a "noble effort, but hopeless" because us chuds are too biased and stubborn, will now wag their fingers at themselves with the same amount of enthusiasm.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Problem is, most people don't distinguish between individual experts and instead just see the scientific community as a big undifferentiated blob.
And this was something deliberately cultivated by the scientific community itself. During Covid there were credentialed experts coming out against lockdowns or MRNA vaccines, etc., and the response was that it's the scientific consensus that counts, not individual opinions.
given that the data/methodology don't seem particularly rock-solid,
For a discussion on the study and it's issues, you can check this article by SEGM
At the least, it's evidence that the doomers and blackpillers claiming lines go up are wrong.
Chris has me blocked, so can someone ask him who is he talking about? "Social contagion" and "trans trend" have been the dominant narrative on the anti-trans side for years.
A number of stories I vaguely follow have largely been ignored by this space
I stopped doing regular dispatches from the Trans Wars because even relatively major developments don't feel like fertile ground for discussion, but since we're already here: the first detransitioner has won $2 miilion in a malpractice lawsuit. A few days later, in a move completely unrelated to the recent news, the American Society of Plastic Surgeons issued a statement recommending against gender surgeries for youth below 19. There's about two dozen more such lawsuits in the pipeline, and they all started prior to the resolution of this case hitting the news.
I'll echo Chris' "too early to declare victory", but I'd say it's safe to assume this will put a major damper on the process of transing kids. Even sympathetic providers will likely find themselves putting some effort into exploring alternatives, to cover their own ass, if nothing else. They'll hopefully also think twice before pommelling parents with "would you rather have a happy son or a dead daughter?".
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Never-Trumpers never had much purchase beyond the Republican party as a coherent faction.
On the Republican side, the only person who even tried offering an alternative way to combat wokeness was DeSantis. The old establishment is as woke as the Dems and some of them even changed parties.
As for Democrats, the centrist wing was a decent portion of the reason why the leftist fringe has lost so much power over the past few years.
The time when the centrist wing of the Democrats was at the height of it's power was the exact moment we hit peak woke. Wokeness still has an iron grip on the party, their leaders just finally realized it's not popular so they're kinda trying to keep on the down-low (and only kinda).
To the extent we're seeing less wokeness now then we used to, this can only be attributed to Trump winning. The day the election results were announced was the day corporations started backing out of it.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
I decided to switch things up a little bit, and come back to this project for a bit. For now I was mostly refreshing my memory, but the current goal is to add animation to these gpu-controlled sprites. I was also experimenting with generating assets with AI, but so far the effects were very meh.
How have you been doing @Southkraut?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
False dichotomy. Wokeism was a cancerous political movement, but the reaction from the Right should have been to defeat it conventionally, not to devolve into Trump Cultism nor to treat it as a blank check to engage in nearly unlimited political hypocrisy (e.g. Trump's open corruption).
If it could be defeated conventionally, why didn't the Democrats do it? Why didn't any of the never-Trumpers?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Ironically, I think Kulak genuinely does believe in them, I just think he's an instigator who wants other people to take him seriously enough to act on his suggestions. But yes, I think his hatred and desire for violence is real.
That's a reasonable take, but personally the guy is just a bit too preoccupied with spreadsheets about how his posts perform for me to take the content terribly seriously.
And I think most people who claim to be afraid of fascism, or who think Trump is Hitler,.are being sincere. They are ignorant and sheltered and generally have no concept of what "fascism" would really look like
This is an issue I have with "charity" and "steelmanning", it often results in attacking someone in an attempt to defend them. Is being ignorant worse than being insincere, or is it the other way around? Either way MadMozer doesn't strike me as either ignorant nor sheltered.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
Actually, accusing someone of not believing what they are saying is uncharitable
I think it depends. I don't know if I can formulate a general rule at the moment, but for an example from the other side: I don't think saying Kulak doesn't actually believe in his violent rebellion fantasies is uncharitable.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
Dayum, you managed to find a reason to use that one again! That's some dedicated hatin'!
Your dedication to insisting that nothing you said in the past should matter, sure is a sight to behold.
though I will point out that I didn't actually demand money stakes to "prove he really believed what he was saying."
I'm not really demanding money stakes either, I'm completely fine with a gentlemen's bet. It's just that he expressed concerns about relative probabilities, and with money you can do things like favorable odds that take them into account.
And yes I think he should prove he actually believes what he's saying. There's nothing unreasonable in stating that he doesn't.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
though I was briefly offended at the thought of using the military
Ok, right. That was the part that the Nybbler was asking about. If he wasn't joking about thr military, the deal not going through makes the lack of occupation more surprising, not less.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
The deal didn't go through. Were you paying attention?
Wait, so for you the outrageous thing about it was that he offered to buy it?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
A 10% chance that Trump is Hitler is a good reason for Americans who don't want to live under Nazi rule (or foreigners who might have to fight a future Nazi America - the main reason why Hitler is the worst is the aggressive war) to be worrying, but I still wouldn't want to bet on it.
As gattsuru pointed out, I'm happy to offer 10:1 odds. I just flat out don't believe that anyone actually thinks "Trump is Hitler" is even remotely likely, and I don't think they are actually worried about that.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
If you think there's the slightest chance he'll run, bet me about it.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
she should have confidently asserted that a woman was someone, anyone, who made it clear that they wished to be treated as such,
To be treated as what?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4d ago
Likewise, he seems dangerously removed from a common understanding of the upper classes how things are done, the informal rules on how society is conducted. When Biden pardoned his son, that was noteworthy, scandalous. With the Trump administration, pardons of political allies, people who bribe him by buying his shitcoin etc is not a scandal but a Tuesday.
That's complete opposite of what happened. When Biden made his pardons, the pro-establishment people barely discussed it. Nowadays they bring up Trump's pardons as some unthinkable line to cross, and they do so without any reference to what Biden did.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4d ago
You'd think that the EU making more money from fining American companies, than from taxing it's own tech sector, would have shown that it is about hobbling the US tech sector, and the Tea App debacle ia just a happy coincidence.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4d ago
As a confirmed MAGAt myself, I feel a distinct discomfort reading this warning.
For my part, I can kinda see what you mean, if I squint. Otherwise it's hard to tell if this is supposed to be a criticism of Trump / populists, or our current establishment.
In contrast, true societal stability is only found in the Family, the bedrock on which all civilization stands. And while the modern assault on the Family threatens to break civilization as assuredly as any barbarian uprising, it is still an institution that takes only two willing companions and the providence of God to initiate.
Yeah... Look, I'm a big fan of the "clean your room" approach to life and society, but it's a bit hard to gloss over the "modern assault on the Family" bit, the way you did. Are we supposed to smile and nod as it's happening? Is every rebellion an assault on order and civilization? If not, what specific lines has Trumpism crossed to make it unacceptable to civilization 'n order enjoyers?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
5d ago
If I want to show that two distributions are statistically different then I start with the assumption that they are not and then set out to disprove that.
And what assumption do you use when you want to show that they are the same? It's just a matter of how you formulate your question.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
5d ago
As a matter of technical statistical terminology, the null hypothesis when testing two groups for equality is that the relevant average (usually the mean, but median tests exist) is the same for both groups.
In this case we know for a fact the averages are not the same, the debate is over the causes.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
6d ago
No, for your monthly horoscope.
And come to think of it, even if there's no money involved, it sounds like the kind of person that would use astrology to tell you what decisions you should make, and/or win arguments.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
6d ago
Yeah but "intelligence is equally distributed among all human races" is a positive hypothesis of it's own, that's why you are effectively doing what he said.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
6d ago
I could see it this way, if she wasn't certified (or at least wouldn't bring it up without prompting).
Personally, I'd say that if the police and prosecutors pressed charges against Dumana / Belov in the current political climate, the evidence against him must be pretty strong, and that would warrant a 70% bet in the other direction (keep in mind your original argument rested on nothing more than statements from the police, not official charges, or an actual convction).
But that's beside the point. I don't really have a problem with you falling on the other side of this and sticking to your guns, my issue was with your top level post on the topic, and how you portrayed anyone unconvinced by your arguments as unreasonable.
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