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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/

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greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					3 followers  

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					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
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				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Labor rights (anti-monopoly)






Reduce everyday mortality: healthy lifestyle, healthy food, healthcare access, traffic safety, crime, etc.




The issue imho has been misallocation of public resources. For example, why is so much healthcare spending on people who are at the end-of-life for example who have no hope of living much longer.  Or so much education spending to bring laggards up to speed, who should go into the trades or drop out of school. Or too much credentialism.  Many of these proposals seem like an expansion of the government or vague that will necessitate higher taxes or more deficit spending. The minimum wage is an example of 'labor rights', yet creates a barrier to work.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
This was an example of an unforced error, albeit a tiny one in the grand schemes of things. It makes me wonder why anyone would book a comedian at all. Politics is very much scripted; comedians by trade are not.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Agree. It's been this way since 2016: "OMG Trump did or said bad thing , I am going to vote for Hillary/Biden/Harris" said probably no one.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Judging by the massive surge in DJT stock this morning, or prediction markets, not at all.


unchanged:


https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1730135416810


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
People have fetishes for seemingly everything ,so this would not surprise me either.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It's hard to say because until recently they were borderline illegal and illiquid


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Agree. What does this even mean. America has always been blamed on a lot of ill in the world . This didn't  change under Trump. The fact so many people want to come to America, not just for benefits, but for jobs and to attend universities , shows it cannot be that bad. The leadership of Germany, UK, France, Japan, etc.  may not have liked Trump or would preferred someone else, but they were more than willing to work with him and respected the office.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Regardless, it's a bad sign for our institutions that these are the choices we've been given.




Politicians have always been underwhelming though, and Trump IMHO at least is a departure from that.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I think Trump will be more damaging to the economy, and I think he will epically fuck up what's left of America's standing in the world. I think he will be an embarrassment who fails to accomplish any of the things his followers think he will (just like last time) and what he does accomplish he will fuck up.




People said this in 2016 too. Not saying you are wrong, but it's ascribes too much power to him or the wrong motives. Trump was constantly tweeting about the stock market and the strength of the US economy  during his first term ,so it's evident  the economy is important to him and he's not going to fuck it up if he can prevent it.  Also, I am skeptical at how can he simultaneously fail to accomplish anything but also fuck things up or irreparably ruin America' standing. Even during Covid, America led the world in developing  a vaccine, and then Trump stimulus programs engendered a rapid economic recovery as other countries stalled out with endless lockdowns and relapses.


Given how well the stock market has done in recent months in light of the  >50% prospect of a Trump victory, I think market participants are optimistic, as am I. He will pass stimulus, tax cuts...typical stuff. Inflation and debt will keep going but but it won't lead to crisis, just more of the same stuff we've become accustomed to over the past 12  years. The tariffs will not do much either, similar to his first term.


The election process sucks in that America will be more divided regardless of the outcome . Instead of elections being discreate events, they are merged into continuous events where the campaigning begins at the end of the present cycle. If it's close then there may be a repeat of 2020, but it will not lead to crisis, but it will be another slog. Elections have become too high stakes, and it would be nice to see a return to the 80s, 90s, or 2000s when there was not so much at stake or such a big deal.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


So how are the betting markets taking it? Well, there were a couple more flash crashes in Trump shares on Polymarket. Around midnight, his odds briefly dipped under 60%. Was it manipulation? I don't think so. To paraphrase Stanley Druckenmiller, sometimes it's better to just buy the rumor and then ask questions later. Maybe it was worth a gamble to see if the attack stuck.




Prediction market are likely more accurate than polling. In addition to public information, prediction markets take into account variables that polls cannot readily account for, like electoral college lumpiness and turnout, as well as insider info. These tend to favor Trump, like in 2016. Or Bush in 2000. Both of whom won despite losing popular vote.  So polling aggregators that give Kamala a 50% chance of winning or favorability, this translates into maybe only a 40% probability due to the aforementioned factors.




It really is too close to call at this point. Will we see a "real" October surprise against Trump? It feels unlikely. There just isn't any more unspent ammunition. Will the Trump campaign produce some valuable oppo research against Harris? Again, unlikely, since the media wouldn't report on it anyway.




I think the whole 'Trump admires dictators' story by John Kelly was the surprise, and likely a dud. It also shows how Trump cannot stop appointing people who later turn on him. Likening someone to Hitler is so unoriginal or played out it has lost any of its potency to change minds. People acknowledge that it's just hyperbole.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
more like 50+ points above the mean , and IQ is necessary but not sufficient


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
agree, Among top chess plyers in general, a super-high IQ is not that important  , but to be among the absolutely best in such a crowded, competitive field, then IQ matters a lot, i would assume. CHess is  not as g-loaded as math, but still g loaded to some extent given you need to memorize moves and think fast enough or ahead .


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
it's not like he started at  10 or earlier  like Erdos or Tao. age 14 is late compared to  those child prodigies.  another example is Maryam Mirzakhani, who took  up  math in her mid teens, and then also went from 0 to 100 seemingly instantly, winning contests and such.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
he is an outlier and his dad probably helped in some way. But other examples are Peter Scholze and June Huh. The former only became interested in math at 14, and then, boom, best in the world by 2010.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Magnus Carlsen was a prodigy in almost every regard, not just a chess prodigy. His spatial recognition and fluid memory abilities were very advanced at a young age,  suggesting a very high full-scale-IQ, not just being specialized at chess.


From wiki:




Carlsen showed an aptitude for intellectual challenges at a young age. At two years, he could solve 500-piece jigsaw puzzles; at four, he enjoyed assembling Lego sets with instructions intended for children aged 10–14.[12]




Kasparov's IQ is widely cited as 135, which is good, but not that impressive. I would bet it's a lot  lower than that of Magnus Carlsen.




Magnus Carlsen at age 13 was substantially weaker than Kasparov;




They faced different competitors. Given how optimized chess has become, Magnus Carlsen faced harder opponents and a much deeper talent pool. In 2004, when he lost to Kasparov,  Magnus was just 13. It would be another decade until he would become the world chess campion and hit the peak of his abilities. A more apt comparison would be adult Magnus vs  Kasparov.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Trump is allowed to avail himself every permissible legal option to contest the results, but must vacate the office, which he did without incident. So the transfer of power was upheld. It does set a precedent for repeats of this though. Suggesting that the process was unfair, fraudulent,  or rigged is also protected speech provided the transfer of power is not obstructed. The Constitution makes no mention of the process having to be fair or that the votes are properly counted, only that the transfer of power is upheld. Even if the dems transparently cheated, Trump must still leave if no recourse is possible.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Totally agree. The practice of Medicine just isn't that deep. It's some pattern recognition (sick / not sick), extracting the right features from the patient (patient says "man my chest feels weird" and figuring out if they mean chest pain, shortness of breath, etc.), heuristics (this cluster of signs and symptoms matches this), and then a short decision tree (D-dimer --> CTA).




This is being a nurse, not a doctor. Doctors can triage, but also have to understand the intricacies of the body well enough to publish research or prescribe drugs.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
SOL? Hardly. The child or young adult will just find something else he or she enjoys. A hyperspecialization program will weed out those who show little promise anyway or who are disinclined.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
This is why universal-pre-k did not live up to the hype .Early gains, if any, fade by teens.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Yeah, for sure. Kids being pushed/prodded into extracurriculars or enrichment is par for the course in high-SES areas; few become any good.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


All the real maestros I've known in my life yes, started young, but they also had at least one parent who was a professional musician at some level, even if its just a highschool choir director. Many of the musicians mentioned above also are the children of musicians.




I think it's genes . Same for athletes. it's not a coincidence that the children of professional sports players also tend to get into sports or have above average ability. however, the apple can still fall far from the tree or roll and there is a lot  of regression.  Brony James for example is only 6′ 2″  compared to his much bigger and better dad. Freeman Dyson's son , a science writer, is quite a step-down from revolutionizing theoretical  physics as his dad had done.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Social media maybe to blame, or TV. Technology gives more ways for people to socialize at a distance or to disengage.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


It’s known that to be the best chess player or instrumentalist you need to start at a young age, with ~5 being a common age to start for the best in the world. If you’re a chess prodigy or world class cellist, you hyperfocus on these skills throughout your childhood, and it’s accepted that you sacrifice normal schooling and extra-curriculars to pursue your skill. But why do we only allow this for the most worthless skills? There’s nothing unique about chess or cello — to be the best at any skill you need to start at around five. The Olympian Yuto Horigome started skateboarding before he could walk; Mark Zuckerberg started making apps before he was a teenager; Noam Chomsky joined political discussions as a child when accompanying his father to the newspaper stand; Linda Ronstadt learned all the genres of music she would later perform before 10; Von Neumann and Mozart had legendary childhood specializations.




nah, it's not the tutoring  or hyper-specialization, but rather the IQ. Some of the most gifted mathematicians alive were not  necessarily precocious   at math, but by being so smart, were able to make rapid progress despite showing inclination at math later in life, such as in their teens or twenties. Ed Witten is an an example of this.  Von Neumann was hardly the only Hungarian Jew who had an early start, but by being so smart, far outpaced his other 'Martian' peers.  We need to find a way to raise IQ . Sure, Magnus Carlsen got an early start, but his IQ is also legit higher than probably most or all his competitors too.




By 13, Magnus Carlsen’s skill equaled that of a 40yo Garry Kasparov)




his IQ is way higher too. IQ vs ability is not linear, so an extra 40 points is not being 40% better than someone with an IQ of 100 but many magnitudes smarter.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I least am not supporting Trump because he's a paragon of morality , the most qualified, or effective at his job, but that he is the best option out there. Trump  being unable to ingratiate himself with DC power dynamics lessens the likelihood of a major blunder, like another Iraq War or something of the scale. Tax cuts and stimulus are what we can expect, and judicial appointments that will outlast his term. The worst fears of every pundit from 2015-2017 of Trump came nowhere close to manifesting, so this makes me disinclined to take them seriously at anything.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
But it's not like they are going to developing a new streaming platform every quarter, or have to pay the same legal expenses every quarter. The streaming platform is is the second unveiling since Truth Social , which is already  2 years old. The legal expenses are related to Trump Media's merger, which is also not a recurring expense. If this were $19 million in advertising to promote Truth Social, then this would be a much worse situation, as it's understood to be recurring. Similar newly-public tech companies such as Twitter and Uber also had large legal expenses after going public, but these proved temporary even if a big deal at the time.