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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/

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greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					2 followers  

					follows 0 users  

					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
User ID: 68


					
					
					
				

			


					

						
							
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				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 31, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Related to the Twitter-Musk saga, Elon tweeted:


https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1587129795732770824


"If I had a dollar for every time someone asked me if Trump is coming back on this platform, Twitter would be minting money!"


Then the obvious question is, if Musk owns the site, why can't he just bring Trump back? What or who is stopping him?


As it turns out, Prince Alwaleed  has a large interest in Twitter and helped finance the deal:


Senate Democrat wants national security investigation of Saudi Arabia’s role in Elon Musk-Twitter deal




Saudi Arabian Prince Alwaleed bin Talal helped Musk finance the $44 billion acquisition of Twitter (TWTR) by rolling over his existing $1.9 billion stake in the social media company. The move makes Saudi entities the second-largest shareholder in Twitter – behind only Musk himself.




Alwaleed  and Trump are  not on good terms https://www.thewrap.com/saudi-prince-fires-back-at-donald-trump-over-alleged-photoshopped-picture/


And others helped too: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/05/oracle-co-founder-ellison-to-give-1-billion-to-fund-musks-purchase-of-twitter.html




Musk's $33.5 billion equity commitment included his 9.6% Twitter stake, which is worth $4 billion, and the $7.1 billion he had secured from equity investors, including Oracle Corp co-founder Larry Ellison and Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal.




and https://nypost.com/2022/10/25/elon-musk-may-close-44b-twitter-deal-by-friday-report/




Banks, including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, have committed to provide $13 billion of debt financing to support the deal.




So this is unfortunate. It could mean that Musk cannot unban him for fear of Alwaleed selling his stake, or some agreement between Musk and his financial backers to keep Trump banned.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 4, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Standards of living overseas are not that bad. A low per-capita GDP is negated to some extent by greater purchasing power in dollars, so your ill-gotten gains go very far. Those countries have electricity, internet access, plumbing, cars, public transport, airport, etc. It's not like Somalia or something.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 24, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
This is a real uncharitable interpretation. I have never seen an HBD person ever advocate such a thing, not counting white nationalist subs or 4chan.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 23, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
China is the new red scare, replacing the USSR. Every generation has one it seems. Before that it was ever-present threat of Islamic terrorism, which unlike the threat of China was not entirely unfounded. Remember all that hype about Huawei spying electronics a couple years ago, which vanished from the headlines after Covid came. Or about Trump wanting to ban TikTok, which predictably went nowhere . Whenever politicians want to boost sagging approval numbers or project decisiveness , pointing fingers at China is a surefire bet.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
a presidential election is of national interest too. It looked like the FBI was investigating possible voter fraud or something amiss. they are understandably vigilant about this sort of thing. There was a 2016 campaign on twitter regarding fake dates https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/social-media-influencer-charged-election-interference-stemming-voter-disinformation-campaign


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
the push for de-institutionalization  is partly to blame. In the past maybe he would have been committed. It's easy to find solutions to deal with overtly violent or mentally ill people, but those who are a nuisance and only occasionally act or threaten violence, but without breaking laws or physically harassing people, are harder to deal with.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 13, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Elon is still making changes to twitter


https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1637198368714772486




In the coming weeks, Twitter will prioritize replies by:






    

  1. People you follow
    2. 







    

  1. Verified accounts
    2. 







    

  1. Unverified accounts
    2. 







Verified accounts are 1000X harder to game by bot & troll armies.






There is great wisdom to the old saying: “You get what you pay for.”




"1000X harder to game by bot & troll armies" Really? It seems like scammers have no trouble getting verified accounts:  https://www.theverge.com/23379133/twitter-instagram-verified-account-for-sale-scam-criminal


Also, not to mention that verified accounts tended to be the ones who are woke and the most critical of his management, so why would Elon want to give them priority? It's already bad enough that there are more ads on twitter. Now giving more priority to blue accounts will make it worse.


This seems like a bad idea


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for February 23, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I don't see a feedback thread, but can we make the comment scores/votes visible internally instead of having to wait a day? The score would be visible to whoever made the post but invisible externally, until the 24 hours has passed. This would be useful feedback so I can delete the post if it gets downvoted too much instead of having to wait a day. Sometimes it's hard to predict how unpopular a post is just by the replies, like about my posts on cities and crime which was heavily downvoted. Had I seen the vote count sooner I would have deleted it. I feel bad about having posted it and regret it.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 19, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


The way the vessel was built and operated embodied the SV ethos. There are reports that it was not certified or audited by anyone, that the hull testing procedures were not adequate, that the company moved fast and broke things. So right now said ethos is having torn a new one.




there have probably been thousands of dives   since the 80s. something like this was inevitable given the inherent risks. the problem with engineering are the unknown unknowns. Maybe some corrosion or weakness in a wire caused the sub to fail--something that hardly anyone considers and seemingly mundane...like a piece of foam hitting a tile at takeoff, a piece  of metal on a runway, a  rubber seal leaking due to unforeseen cold, etc.. Had this occurred 20+ years ago, it would have gotten a lot of media coverage but not like we are seeing now. twitter as always showing its power to create news cycles in and of itself.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 13, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Yes, that entails being hungry sometimes and passing on dessert most of the time and probably learning to drink water.




Isn't this what a diet is. yet the stats are pretty miserable. ppl lose weight and then regain it


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 12, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It was in San Francisco. Not exactly that surprising.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				"What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?"
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
There was  comparable excess in the 80s and 90s despite even higher interest rates than now. The greatest asset bubble ever, the late 90s tech boom, was against a backdrop of 5-6% interest rates. High interest rates do not change things much. Yeah, 4% interest rates makes cash more attractive, but this is not going to stop huge tech companies from generating record profits. nor will it stop speculation.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 24, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


And they've had the reigns and got to be the null hypothesis for decades. All of their interventions failed. We can play the snipe down studies game all day but in the end one story is backed up by observed reality and the other is backed up by blind dogma.




pretty much:


https://i1.wp.com/www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/ccf_20170201_reeves_3.png?w=768&crop=0%2C0px%2C100%2C9999px&ssl=1


The black-white achievement gap has proven impervious to all efforts to fix it


same for the gender gap


https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/satnew.png


But individual absolute ability may have increased , but group differences persist. It's intellectually dishonest to claim that enough hasn't been tried. Policy makers have invested considerable money and effort at narrowing such gaps, with piss-poor results to show for it.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 3, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


This just seems like the adage go woke go broke. And it’s not just Amazon it’s a universal issue.




Amazon is at no risk of going broke. How many companies went woke and actually went broke as a result. I cannot think of any. Mailchimp went woke and got bought out.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				The Bailey Podcast E034: An Unhinged Conversation on Policing
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Disagree with Kulak's position.  crime would surge under his style of policing, especially organized crime. Criminals fear govt. enforcement far more than private enforcement and is a better deterrent. Governments have unlimited resources, including to detain criminals for a long time or forever, whereas bounty hunters and other private citizens are much more limited. Even if property owners have full discretion to use guns to defend themselves, criminals would still prefer this over more aggressive public policing.  An armed citizen is not going to go to the end of the earth to capture a habitual criminal, but a government agency like the FBI which has unlimited resources will. Militias would not work agaisnt  crimes in which the criminal goes after distant targets.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 23, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
That is clever and astute.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 16, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


A couple months ago, during some meta-discussion of disappearing threads, I wrote up my thoughts on conspiracy theories as countersignaling. As long as there's incentive to appear cool, independent, unique, there is incentive to push the boundaries of acceptability. It's called "edgy" for a reason.




I have observed the pendulum swinging back the other way...the rise of what I have called normcore-right ,since 2021. These are people who are strongly anti-woke but at the same time hold  mainstream (or normie) views, like about vaccines or even Ukraine. They sometimes take extreme views on otherwise mainstream positions, like Richard Hannia on the death penalty. Or supporting open borders in the case of Caplan.  It's  a subset of the un-woke who have carved out a niche of signaling high-status beliefs appealing to  a well-educated, high-SES audience who are anti-woke but also strongly inclined to reject conspiracy theories , extremism, or  tribalism. It's close to the IDW but more traditionalistic and less secular.  NRO columnist Kevin Williamson started this in 2016 by opposing Trump and also strongly opposing economic populism, and in one of his more famous articles taking an  especially incendiary or hard-core tone in which he said that downtrodden, white-working class towns  “Deserve To Die”', which at the time generated some controversy.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 28, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Weak move by Musk, who said weeks ago he would only censor content/posts, not accounts. And also, posting a swastika , in and itself, is not inciting violence, even if it's interpreted as antisemitic. By that logic, the ADL and SPLC should be banned. No one is more obsessed with Nazi iconography than those groups. I guess he's starting to feel the pinch of advertisers leaving or bad media coverage. 50% of twitter employees laid off and they still kept the worst ones it seems.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 14, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I think he's blue. What has he done or said that makes him grey?


from wiki:




Contributions for the year 2022, through August 15, 2022, also went to members of both parties, with $105,000 donated to conservatives (0.3%) and $35,872,000 to liberals (99.7%) .[81]




				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 31, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Well, not everybody. Pretty much all decent people just don't litter or jump turnstiles.




I dunno...for what it's worth, studies  have shown even people who consider themselves as  honest may commit petty crimes if they think they will not get caught or https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1509/jmkr.45.6.633


Littering is so common, I i don't think it's any signifier or moral worth or lack thereof. It's not like you are taking something from someone, but rather creating a tiny externality.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 17, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Twitter is an obvious exception to this.  Same for Substack, Reddit, Facebook, and blogs. It's not that video has taken over the internet , but video has consumed the attention  of those who are receptive to it.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The media way underestimated trump's odds. It was never as low as 10%>. Even in 2020 we can see how the election became very close at one point during the night, until Biden's mysterious surge. The strength of the GOP, and especially Trump, has always been the swing states, compared to the left whose strength is in # number of votes and turnout.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for September 6, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I have been thinking about the issue of obesity. I posit there are two kinds of obesity, the first  being force-feeding obesity, in which someone overeats huge quantities of food (>6000 calories/day or more), possibly due to some emotional disturbance, and is   able to override, temporality,  the body's set point. Losing weight is also the easiest for such individuals because all they have to do is not eat as much and their weight rapidly returns to normal, but without  the constant starvation of dieting because they are still eating a normal amount of food (3000 calories) which is in line with calculators.


The second type of obesity, which is worse, is what I call 'shit genetics' obesity, which means a slow metabolism. The second groups has a much slower metabolism than the first and in order to not be obese has to eat surprisingly small quantities of food, and become obese eating only  average quantities of food, maybe only 2500-3000 calories/day (lower than predicted by calculators for height, age, gender, activity level, etc.). These people  are screwed and need these GLP-1 class of drugs or else they will feel starving all day. These ppl will become overweight or obese in almost any environment, short of famine.  Both forms of obesity are made worse by modernity, like hyper-palatable foods, but the second group is even worse off.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 10, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Same as the performance-based social media backlash against Nike regarding the Kaepernick ads. Or against Starbucks and Disney.  It will pass in a few weeks, as it always does. Social media is the perfect medium for expressing outrage. Conservatives may try to boycott but the hard part is sustaining it.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 10, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It makes no sense to pump excess power uphill and then run it it downhill because the act of elevating water also consumes energy.


				

				

						

							

								
    
									
									
									
									
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