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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/

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greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					3 followers  

					follows 0 users  

					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
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				Wellness Wednesday for January 15, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It is safe if  you don't mind looking like Shrek from overuse . I think some increased risk of cancer.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 13, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
except for MTG cards, collectibles are probably worse due to carry costs. Crypto has no carry. But they both tend to be bad. There tons of stories of people who drudge up their collectibles only to learn they are appraised for nothing or are unable to sell them. With crypto  at least there is a market where everyone gets the same price, and much better liquidity. That  urn may have been appraised for $1000, but no one will buy it or you may only get $800 after fees. Many items at auction houses go unsold due to reserve not being met or no bidders.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 13, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
crypto is $4 trillion total market cap. $5 billion market cap for $trump  is still tiny. Rather than saturation, it's more like $ from other coins shifting into $Trump. You can see this by how altcoins have all fallen except $SOL and $Trump.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 13, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I dunno why people say he's so verbose. He's really not except for a few of his essays. The amount of writing he does is  less than required of a typical humanities undergrad ; same for the amount of effort to read him compared to college assigned reading. The verbosity of the prose itself is not that much different from other writing in an academic setting or even many op-eds, such as from the New Yorker. I think so many people's attention spans are fried.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 13, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
At least investments, even shitty crypto ones, can go up. Better than 'all or nothing' things like sports betting.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 13, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Political problems and division arises  from  insufficient  concentration of political  power, not too much of it.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 13, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
it makes him look worse to those who already didn't like him--so it's bad in that sense.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 13, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
no, too risky and missed the train. Crypto has  very high beta with the stock market, no alpha anymore.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 13, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
To toot my horn, it looks like my thesis from 2 months age was correct https://www.themotte.org/post/1215/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/260850?context=8#context


DJT stock stock being worth $4-7 billion despite meager earnings was not wholly irrational, as I had pointed out, due to the ability of Trump to leverage his branding in ways that short-sellers and other skeptics were overlooking, at virtually no cost to DJT. And now in the span of 4 hours Trump created $5+ billion out of thin air--just with a tweet (and a post on Truth Social) promoting his new coin. No $ spent on advertising.


Presumably, some of this $ will go to Trump Media. So in hindsight, DJT stock was not so overvalued. Trump can print money at will. His brand today is way bigger compared to in the '90s-2000s, when his companies regularly went bankrupt and his  failures made for late night fodder. The assumption was DJT would be a repeat of that. You're not smarter than the market. Or at least to be smarter than the market, it cannot be obvious. A year ago it seemed so obvious that DJT was worthless or would be soon, and now this. If a narrative seems too obvious or easy, there is likely something you're missing. Wall St. does not like to give money away.


Moreover, this is why you should never bet against Trump the person. Like DJT stock, $Trump has defied the typical 'pump and dump' trajectory seen in other meme coins, like Hawk Tuah's coin, which imploded to zero right from the gate. But $Trump went up 1000x steadily after it began trading--the opposite trajectory. Trump, like Elon, is truly the master of defying what is possible, or doing the impossible. The usual rules do not apply to them. Throw out your preconceived notions. No pump and dump when it comes to $Trump--the gains hold.


However, I predict his presidency will fall short of the expectations of some of his supporters, similar to his first term , such as no crypto reserve legislation, and being stonewalled by legal  problems and Congress. So I am bearish on the Trump presidency, but bullish on Trump as a brand, the political ambitions of his children, and Trumpism as a force of politics even if it does not change society that much.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 13, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I think it's going to be tough to get that constituency to play ball again, as they did so readily in 2020.




If there is any upside to hustle culture is that it gives men alternatives


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 13, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Wokeness seems like a rebranding of the SJW--remember that? Woke-capitalism is a rebranding of 90s PC culture--the stuff satirized by Dilbert and others.  Leftism was weaponized by smartphones and social media, such as for getting people fired, but this predates the use of woke. It thrives because it confers status  without having to actually do anything.  In the past, activists had to actually engage in activism; now they just list pronouns.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 6, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
With a single day remaining until the next weekly thread, I thought I would squeeze this in:


Trump Won't Announce Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Via Executive Order, Says Analyst: 'He Would Likely Buy BTC In The Background'


Polymarket  is giving 28-30% odds as of 1/12/2025 of Trump implementing the strategic crypto reserve within his first 100 days in office.


I remember a month before the 2024 election , polymarket gave 60% odds of Trump winning. That seemed too high at the time (although in hindsight obviously too low) , but didn't feel that confident  either way. But taking the "No" side at 30%-- or a 30% return for the next 100 days--seems like a no-brainer. Trump dithering and nothing happens seems way more likely than only 70%. Trump has a long history, from what I can see, of falling short of expectations and letting donors down. I remember before his first term people were expecting drastic reforms and basically nothing of that sort happened. I would put the odds closer to 2-5% of the reserve than 30%.


from the above article:




Van Straten added that Trump, who is pro-Bitcoin, would likely buy in the background instead of making a public announcement. “No advantage announcing to the world about a BTC reserve as the price will just run away from him. He will just buy in the background.”




The evidence that Trump is suddenly pro-bitcoin still is not that strong. i cannot see him "buying in the background" either. I don't see him taking that sort of initiative.




The most likely scenario was Trump restricting the sale of the seized Bitcoins held by the U.S. government, Van Straten said.




I don't see this happening either. Bitcoin held in US treasury will continue to be sold despite  Trump being in office. Donors, supporters, and pundits will wonder why he isn't doing anything about it, and i'm like were you asleep during his first term? This is what is expected, which is doing nothing.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 2, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
or just invest in better security? from the video he had no protection. that would surely be cheaper than having to forego billions in profits


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 6, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I posit it's easier for jewish women . the difference is not as great between gentile vs. Jewish women


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 6, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
because he's not white. looking good on video typically requires fully European phenotype , although blacks pull it off too. Jews look the worst. that is what I have observed at least. whites tend to have a more angular or square face and solid lower jaw  which looks better on video. But jews make up for it by being articulate, high verbal IQ.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 6, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Yay it's now a tiny bit easier to be hired at Facebook (if you're white)


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 2, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
agree. insanity does not mean what people often think it does . it does not mean a total lack of composure or forethought


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 2, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
as if killing him will fix healthcare.  Sharehodlers would have to agree to reducing profits, which would not happen. the stock would crash and he would be ousted and replaced by  someone else.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 2, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Biden pardoning SBF




a market exists for this https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-pardon-sbf-this-term


This would not be without precedent. Trump pardoned literal conmen for things way worse than Hunter had done and no one noticed or cared. The pardon is one of the few examples of unalloyed power of the president. No fan of Biden, but both sides abuse this.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 2, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I also allowed the possibility that the shooter was motivated by factors that does not readily map to the left/right-spectrum, similar to Thomas Matthew Crooks.  Crooks planned the shooting well enough to  come within an inch of killing Trump. I would say that is demonstrative of competence, having scouted an opening and having a ladder ready


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 2, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
This this would imply that other companies are leaving money on the table out of generosity? There is always a tradeoff


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 2, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
agree. people  are reading into or assigning a motive that fits their worldview.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 2, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
A solution is less preventive care, which does not save money despite the hype. how about a return to people only seeking healthcare when actually sick.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 2, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Also needs to ditch the weapon


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 2, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The leadership vacuum will be quickly filled, but there was nothing remarkable about his leadership