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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/

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greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					3 followers  

					follows 0 users  

					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
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				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Have you been paying attention to Trump's second term?




the DOGE layoffs were single year outlier of otherwise stable employment and good job prospects  . 90% of the reduction was voluntary and only 10% through formal termination


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
From Google Ai  "Insider trading laws exist primarily to ensure fairness, maintain market integrity, and protect public trust by preventing individuals with privileged, nonpublic information from gaining an unfair advantage over regular investors, which promotes a level playing field and encourages broad participation in capital markets. These laws uphold transparency, ensuring all investors have access to the same information, thereby preventing market manipulation and fostering confidence in the financial system's reliability and honesty. "


"misappropriation of information" is one of many reasons


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The stock market gaining $100 billion in valuation is easily within a standard deviation of movement


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
They are thin, but this guy still cashed out a 400k+ profit.  Some contracts have pretty big volume and such volume will increase with the popularity of these markets.


We can easily create hypotheticals for people who are not multimillionaires also affecting outcomes for a payout


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
but aren't prediction markets also markets?  I am not emotionally invested in the outcome of this  either, and dumb ppl losing money in the market or from information asymmetries doesn't upset me much. If this is legal, then it's a no brainer to do this at scale like the examples  I give in my original post. just set up markets where you know the outcome in advance and hope someone else takes the other end of the trade, or maybe find an employee who has insider information and split the profits or something,


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
the Venezuela contract had enough liquidity for someone to book a $400k profit,and I don't think his trades moved the markets much. As prediction markets gain popularity, so will volume.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I guess the question is where does one draw the lines ethically. If I am sitting on   information, even something  seemingly as trivial as record sales or movie ticket sale, and I trade on this, is this ethical? I don't think so, but I am not going to lose much sleep over it either. It does make markets more efficient in the sense of the price being closer to its appropriate value. But I can see a surge of hacking incidents or hostages as people try to glean insider information that can be traded on prediction markets, instead of sold to hackers or riskier regulated markets.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I like the idea of predictions markets for hedging, and they can complement other strategies. For example, they can be used in lieu of stock options due to possible  mispricings of probabilities.  This is distinct  though from my contrived example of someone with   knowledge in advance  of an outcome and then creating the market under the illusion or pretext of uncertainty and then profiting from the asymmetry of information. Or outright  insider trading before the expiration, like shortly before the Venezuela attack. Because then there is no uncertainty that is being hedged  and you're just profiting from the information asymmetry.  This seems much more ethically iffy.


In the case of Mike Johnson , true, it's a binary outcome. But a military strike is not only binary, but also a unilateral decision by a single individual. So being privy to this knowledge makes the appropriate bet a no-brainer, verus predicting House votes.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
but sports betting is highly regulated through. I agree it's gambling, but the idea of regulation is to project the illusion of 'fairness' and also to regulate money flows such as in the context of organized crime and taxes. As per regulation, a casino's 'house edge' cannot exceed a certain percentage, for example.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


In the States, government agencies such as the FBI, DOJ, SEC, and CFTC are pretty aggressive at catching securities insider trading and even commodities insider trading. And now shadow trading too, using inside information to trade not in a security in itself, instead a different but correlated one.




But this is assuming it's illegal.  I predict a similar outcome for prediction markets, where laws against insider trading are enforced, even for non-financial outcomes such as prediction markets for music sales. There is nothing a government agency wants to do more than expand the scope of its enforcement. KYC/AML is the obvious way. There is already a bill in the works https://www.axios.com/2026/01/05/venezuela-polymarket-prediction-insider-trading


But if this represents a sort of nebulous/grey area where the legality cannot be delineated as it is for the stock market or stock options, then it's rational to do this even if it's dubious ethically.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
yeah as long as there are fools with money, there will always be someone looking to separate them.


Reading  the cases, the SEC is extremely aggressive about pursuing insider trading to protect investors and the notion of the 'fairness of the market'.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
but they get huge pensions, stable employment, top tier healthcare packages and other perks


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
This story went viral A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall.




A gambler made nearly half a million dollars on the capture of Venezuela's president just before it was officially announced, raising questions about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the US operation.


Wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-powered platform, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the end of January rose in the hours before President Donald Trump announced on Saturday the Venezuelan leader had been seized.


One account, which joined the platform last month and took four positions, all on Venezuela, made more than $436,000 (£322,000) from a $32,537 bet.




In the comments, one thing I have observed is the willingness of people to defend insider trading. Here is the highest-upvoted comment on Hackr News:


"Using insider information is how you are supposed to win these. Otherwise it's just random gambling.
This is not the stock market. There are no public reporting rules for the weather, song lyrics, what Kim Kardashian eats tomorrow."


Does this sound insane to anyone else? Why isn't everyone doing this, if they aren't already? Just create a market about things you know in advance, using proxies and crypto mixers to hide your identity and money trail if needed. An Nvidia employee could make a prediction market about an upcoming chip, or an Apple employee about an upcoming iPhone. More specifically,  shill accounts would create markets pretending to be an outsider, and the employee and his accomplices would place the correct bets leading up to the deadline. Wash trades by accomplices  could be placed to create hype and volume to lure unsuspecting traders.


My comments of course were downvoted. They always are. I could make a comment along the lines of the "Pizza tastes great" and I would be downvoted by every pizza hater on that site and no upvotes by everyone else who enjoys pizza, as is the counterintuitive  nature of online voting patterns. Writing good comments is an art in and of itself.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 1, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
At this point being openly MAGA is inviting being a target . they are not  even trying to hide it


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 1, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I presume any trial is going to be a complete shit show where the defence is going to ask how these cellphone records mysteriously appeared after law enforcement officials testified to congress that they were not available. I also now have a bit more empathy for congressional witnesses who claim they are unable to talk about ongoing investigations.




It will never get to that point. Almost certain a plea bargain to avoid life in prison. feds do not lose or are made fools in court.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 1, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
You'd have to be stupid to commit a serious federal crime and expect to get away. There feds have so many resources and so determined, and also it does not help that the vast majority of criminals are not masterminds and make in hindsight stupid mistakes.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 1, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


    

  • The problem is that there is no "extra" time; there is only one time and it is limited. "Extra time" on anything is an illusion, because you are taking your own time from something else. This is not just a metaphysical quibble- parents will demand that a kid get extra time (which usually means double time) on anything the kid finds difficult. Since time cannot be created, a kid who finds the material difficult will take an entire class period for a short quiz, thereby missing a bunch of material and falling behind, ensuring that he finds future material difficult as well and requiring even more "extra" time. Parents rarely understand this, even when it is explained to them.
    • 





Disaagree. Unless I am misunderstanding, there is unlimited time outside of school. i can take as much time as I want to complete something.  Even at work except for , ironically , low-skilled jobs where you're expected to 'clock in', there is much more flexibility than observed in academia/school. Projects are always being delayed, excuses, people late to work, vacation, emergencies, sick time ,etc.  hardly anything is set in stone. The irony is that jobs that require the least amount of credentials have the least accommodations.


I agree though that undeserved accommodations are bad, because it's unfair to others and creates hassle. But I don't think it has much applicability for the real world either, because we see the opposite for many jobs and circumstances.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 1, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Yeah , but even 94% is not enough to secure a conviction. They need it to be it airtight . I can understand the skepticism. Trust in agencies and government at historic lows.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 1, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
As someone interested in true crime, this is fascinating:


FBI arrests man in Jan. 6 DC pipe bomber investigation, sources say


Jan 6th pipe bomber arrested


This concludes a five year investigation.


My biggest question, and the question on others' mind is, how was he caught when there is apparently  so little evidence? A grainy video, a sneaker brand, and that was it pretty much it. The FBI has even outdone the 4chan geolocators, which describes a community of online sleuths who “dox” targets by analyzing geographic details such as weather patterns, cloud formations, and other environmental cues in photos, who were unable to identify him (of course, the FBI has much more resources, evidence and extralegal powers).


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 27, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I am not disagreeing with you. I just think it's interesting how it's a discrete event like that


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 27, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


They can smash up stores of counterfeit products, they can beat the shit out of petty criminals,




It's more like you go to jail and then the beatings happen there. the police don't need to do it and have it go viral online


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 27, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
yeah it's true for the individual scale because that is where is is applicable. Taking more confrontational approach may work 9/10 times and the 10th time it goes badly because the other person was having a bad day. This is assuming the police    are not present. it's not like you always have the luxury of time to wait for the cops to come.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 27, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


But this article hints at the idea that people are zooming past any of that to full lethality. It's impossible to compile the stats to determine if that's actually the case or not, but the larger point remains; in a society with plunging basic trust, you're going to see levels of interpersonal violence spike. How should state laws governing violence respond to this? Stand Your Ground is something I generally still support, but my mind could be changed if simple Bad Neigbor fights end up with more orphans.




Although I don't predict widespread unrest or civil war, there will be more incidents of random violence and lowered social trust. There is the rise of 'Joey Swoll' phenomenon . Some say he's does good, but he has set a precedent or symptomatic of  a much more confrontational culture, where people take matters in their own hands to rectify some perceived problem, which can sometimes end poorly when you're talking people hot in emotion . This why I have a protocol when encountering an 'IRL' problem: de-escalate and remove-oneself from the situation.  This will usually keep you safe.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 27, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Are you shaking your head at my comment or the parent comment? I agree BTC cannot and was not at risk of being regulated-away. I was making a rhetorical point that it was unlikely.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 27, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


In its hayday, the crypto currency industry was a total wild west. Straightforward scams, pyramid schemes, whatever FTX was, the NFT craze. The end uses are to hide assets from the government and to conduct transactions which the government does not want you to conduct.




But this was when Biden was in office. And there was hardly any crackdown. FTX only failed under its own negligence.  Of course, there was an increase of KYC/AML, but this is standard  banking practice. It's no surprise crypto is no exception.




So in short, the threat that most crypto businesses in the US would be regulated out of existence seemed very real to me.




I disagree. Coinbase and other exchanges boomed in 2021  again when Biden was in office. The bust was due to the price collapsing in 2022 as part of the broader stagnation and rate hikes by a hawkish fed.


I agree there is more regulatory clarity, and more favorable regulation given the counterfactual under Kamala, hence why Bitcoin went up after trump won.


But the past 6 months has seen a worsening picture as Bitcoin  falls and lag the QQQ , like today, last week, week before, etc . Trump has at best signaled indifference or apathy  to the Bitcoin  reserve...doesn't even talk about it. And his very own Treasury Secretary ruled out purchases, basically a huge disservice to those donors.


If I were a donor I would be mad that Trump has  dropped the ball  .  Maybe some donors got their money worth with only the regulatory aspect and the initial Bitcoin price surge, but there are still three more years, and things do not look good. I still stand by my argument it's premature  saying the donors "won". Yes, in Jan 2025 it seemed that way, but not anymore.