iprayiam3
4mo ago
Buy a very cute dog of a smart breed, and train him to, on a subtle cue, 'accidentally' get the leash tangled around a woman and her dog. Then take him to a crowded park / trail and troll for hotties.
iprayiam3
4mo ago
I can tell you the honest perception of my in-laws, is simply that Trump did a very good job as president the first time, and would have 'gotten the job done' if he had a second term.
They believe that he did build the wall, and did deliver on every other promise. Even arguments that he tried to deliver on X but the deep state stopped him, have been met with an insistance that he did deliver and that he will be smarter against the deep state this time around. There's no hatred here, there is percieved in justice, but that's not the driving force for them, and you could call it personal loyalty, to a degree but in their minds it's loyalty to a job well done. My in-laws beleive that Trump delivered a great first term and that the following are true: Trump:
- built the wall, and was well on his way to fixing immigration until Biden
- fought valiantly against lockdowns and Covid authoritarianism
- appointed good judges
- gave us the best economy
- kept us out of foreign wars
- had great foreign policy
- started to drain the swamp (I'm not 100% sure how hard they would go on this point)
Some of those things are more true than others. But to answer your question, I think some of voting for Trump is simply believing he was a known, great president, and while I think that's wrong, it doesn't need a completely different explanation.
iprayiam3
4mo ago
are early alert pregnancy tests creating a problem of people being upset over miscarriages they would never have been certain they had before?
We're expecting our fourth. When she was trying, she (probably) had a very early miscarriage that, to your point would have been just a slightly late period and never known. My wife got more bummed about it than I had expected.
But I will hypothesize that rather than your friend having a bruised ego about ease of conception, it's probably something more like the actualization of her existing child and observable uniqueness projects more intensely on the 'what could have been' of the miscarriage.
I think you're more intensely aware of, 'this is a unique, non-fungible individual'.
iprayiam3
5mo ago
My parents homeschooled several of my siblings (but not me). My sisters homeschool their children. It's all mostly unschooling. And the kids /adult so far have developed completely comparably with (occasional knowledge gaps here and there). My son is in school, but can do mathematical laps around his cousins a few years older than him. He didn't learn that in school, he's just precocious mathematically. I honestly think schooling mostly doesn't have a large variance on the average in terms of well-rounded development. It can have differences in social development and on the margins of any specific subject. The more you focus on outcomes based on subject matter, or social grease, the more I think schooling will have an observable statistical effect. The more you look at broad variance of human development, the less, imho
Not buying it. That's an extremely idiosyncratic and unituitively gerrymandered way to describe it.
Are you suggesting that polyamorous refers to the relationship model and the relationship model alone?
People describe themselves as polyamorous all the time. Proportionally moreso than people explicitly identify themselves as monogamous. So we've got 3 options
- The word polyamorous should now have an extensively different definition when describing a person as when describing their relationship.
- People identifying as polyamorous should fit Aella's definition.
- People identifying as poly are essentially stating they are looking for a poly relationship via Aella's defintion
#1 upends the idea of "clean" defintions proving my point, #2 makes your objection moot, and #3 is observably false. The central concept of a person looking for a poly relationship, is not general permissiveness that the other person might seek outside relationships. (Yes some people have a cuck fetish, but that's not 1:1 being polyamorous and it's not even what Aella's defintion describes)
You might further object then, that the polyamourous person is seeking a reciprocal relationship of Aella's model defintion. But
4 Aella didn't describe reciprocally in her definition. She used you pronouns, which linguistically imply a personal defintion not a relational definition.
The definition of 'polyamorous' that I find cleanest, for me, is not forbidding your partner from having extra-relationship intimacy. should be:
The definition of 'polyamorous' that I find cleanest, for me, is not forbidding eithe partner or "one or both partners".
Describing it as your partner makes the claim that it's describing a relationship rather than a person suspect.
Regardless, even if Aella just used poor wording, her defintion isn't described reciprocally, so again should we take it as implied or not necessary. If not necessarily reciprocal, then we're back to the issue with #3. The "cleanest" way of defining something doesn't even capture the core part of what many people are looking for in a poly relationship.
5 If it is necesasrily reciprocal, beyond Aella not describing it that way, it's now fails to capture many actual polyamorous configuirations. Is 'mormon style' polygamy now not polyamorous? Or even worse, the girlfriends who have only the one partner are technically polyamorous, but the man with multiple partners technically isn't? This is a very backwards definition.
At the end of the day, wouldn't it be much cleaner, to, instead of hi-jacking polyamorous to mean something ideosyncratic, describe the relationship model with the already existing word, "open relationship"?
No? Because Aella isn't describing an open relationship, she's producing nonsense.
The definition of 'polyamorous' that I find cleanest, for me, is not forbidding your partner from having extra-relationship intimacy. It doesn't matter if they're acting on it or not, it doesn't matter if you don't feel like banging anybody else, as long as your partner could go have sex/love someone else if they wanted, then to me, that's polyamory.
I'll try to respond to more of your post later, but this definition is just nonsensical to the point that I can only assume it intentionally throws mud in the water.
Defining an orientation or proclivity based on non-nullifcation of your partner's activity is such an unintuitive and messy way to approach it. If you're not defining polyamory by what you like/do, you're not offering an honest definition. Aella is obfucating and virtue signalling, by trying to frame the core of polyamory about generosity toward others' preferences, not one's own.
Imagine if I said that the cleanest definition of being a fan of action movies is not vetoing your partner/friends from choosing an action movie on movie night. It doesn't matter if they like action movies or not, it doesn't matter if you don't feel like picking action movies when it's your turn to decide, as long as your partner could pick an action movie if they wanted, then to me, that's being a fan of action movies.
Does that defintion make any fucking sense? it's hard to be interested in engagement past such a goofy and self-serving opener.
iprayiam3
5mo ago
To be clear, the spinelessness (perhaps the wrong word) I speak of is strictly that he's too tempted by the upside of Trump losing on lawfare that he dances around outright condemnation of what's happening and won't put any skin into fighting with 'Trump' against this.
Like in a recent interview responding to Vivek pledging to remove himself from Colorados ballot, he made a comment to the effect of ' hey I'm going to compete on every ballot I can, whether or not Trump makes it on. That's the name of the game'
This is effectively admitting to 'playing' the rigged game. Ron appearing on a ballot that Trump doesn't is literally the name of the Democrats' game. It's not the name of the fair primaries game.
I loathe Trump, but Ron's refusal to do more to stand in solidarity against the Democrat bullshit reveals him as a flake, if his Ukraine flip-flop hadn't already.
I would still vote Ron over Trump all day on abortion conviction alone and for every other reason. But I'm now backing Vivek. (Not that it matters anyway.)
iprayiam3
5mo ago
In real life, I don't know anyone who has said anything positive out loud about Haley. Though in real life, people around me barely talk about the primaries. Of the people I know the opinions of, I'd say about 1/2 are in the tank for Trump and the other half went from really liking DeSantis to simply favoring him.
I've personally moved from strong support to DeSantis to planning to vote Vivek. Vivek says outrageous stuff and it didn't work on me until I couldn't avoid any longer contrasting it with Ron's complete spinelessness and clear hopefulness that D shenanigans will give him an unearned victory over Trump, consequences be famned
iprayiam3
5mo ago
This guy did not only risk 50k. He invested several thousand a month throughout. 8k/month in 2022 and 12k/month in 2023
iprayiam3
5mo ago
for example, take $50k and park it into 3x tech funds and make $500k as one guy on Reddit did[ 1]
That's not exactly what happened there. Guy kept investing throughout: 8k/month in 2022 and 12k/ month in 2023 (and by implication, several thousand amonth before that as well). He did not just park 50k.
So if the guy started the 2022 with more than 113k (and we have no clue how much investment it took to get here, except that this is down from a high) He could have piled in 200k from 2019 to get to 113. For the next half a year, he kept losing money, WHILE piling in 8k/ month for half a year. But from 2022 to the end of 2023, he's contributed 240k plus his >113k starting point. So over 2 years he invested 353k+ to get to 537k. Still a FANTASTIC gain in 2 years, but not remotely parking 50k as you suggest.
iprayiam3
5mo ago
I don't disagree but what are some examples outside of engineering? Boring legal work?
iprayiam3
5mo ago
I very strongly feel that he should be unbanned until after the Hock. It's less than two months, and while he was pretty one note, it's not like he was trolling or wrecking havoc at large. In this one weird scenario, he's put enough real world skin in the game to be given a bit of leniency for a month and a half.
iprayiam3
5mo ago
Well, I mean the former two adjectives. I didn't describe it correctly in one word. She still liked him, but in a completely changed way. The doting disappeared.
iprayiam3
5mo ago
This is pretty wild, but from my own experience a woman's pet love really ramps up when she starts getting 'ready for kids' and diminishes when the kids arrive.
My wife needed a dog when we got married (we had never even discussed it before). That dog was the world to her up to the day we came home from the hospital with a baby. Then it was just a nuisance to her.
My feelings towars the dog meanwhile never changed: he was always my bud and never a surrogate kid.
But in your case yeah shes going overboard, it's not normal and so I'm hesitant to tell you to shrug it off. But I'd also put money on the probability that it's related to her biological clock firing in weird ways.
iprayiam3
5mo ago
What made you decide to delay giving notice? Not that you're obligated to, either legally or morally, but with the human interests that you're describing, I would think it's the best approach unless you feared retaliation or early termination. Thinking about that a bit, I think my own feeling would be that if I didn't believe the company would engage in good-faith end-date timing with me, I wouldn't feel all that bad about them getting screwed over a bit and wasting everyone's time.
It's a bit of this, and a bit of wasn't sure on the exact timing of the next opportunity. I knew that it was time to leave, and planned to be out by a given time, but there was uncertaintly on both sides of the equation.
In terms of fear of retaliation, yeah. There's been a lot of instability in my current org right now, which is part of why I started making plans to leave. I already had one teammate who was clearly pushed out so they could reclaim her headcound. My fear was that if I had said, Hey I'll be out at the end of the year, they could have (reasonably) come back with, "No, why don't you finish up what you can in the next two weeks."
Then I would have been out ~2 months of pay this year.
I'm planning to leave my job at the start of the year for a new opportunity. I had been planning to make this move for a while, and over the past few months, I had been neatly winding up my projects. I hardly interact with my boss anyway, and I was glad to tie it all up.
Unfortunately, rather recently my boss drove by and dropped two new projects on my lap. I found myself in an awkward position, where I wasn't ready to announce my impending departure, and would also feel dishonest turning down work when I had availability.
But it has been very hard to get invested in it. One of these projects is realtively minor, but has a late January delivery, and nobody to back me up. It will require me to now put in a lot of holiday hours to get it to a passable state. The other one is a major intiative that would realistically require most of my time next year. I've basically (unintentionally) slow-walked it over the past two months, and I guess I will just drop it altogether in the new year, and leave the stakeholders with essentially 2 months wasted delays.
It's something I feel really bad about mishandling, not for the "company's" sake, but for the humans left hanging, the weird, but necessary duplicity when discussion things January and beyond, and the general failure in doing an good job I can be proud of.
Every other role I've ever left, I put in my notice pretty much immediately after being sure of my next role, and left within 3 weeks. This has been a new experience for me, and I feel weird and like I mishandled it. On the one hand, I wish I had told them 2 months ago, I'd be out at the end of December and to plan accordingly. On the other hand, it would have been a real financial hit to my family if I had been let go immediately in response.
Perhaps this is my Hock.
iprayiam3
5mo ago
I suspect it's parents and general public perception more than advertisers. There's a very thin line, that if you fall over, you're just a porn site. I read the flip flopping as uncertaintly about the right mix combined with futher uncertainty due to AI coming crashing into all content platforms.
Imagine you're a convenience store that decides to start selling drugs. Hey these drugs are a huge cash cow, more consistently profitable than anything else in the store. You end up selling a lot of drugs to people who otherwise came looking for groceries or groceries and drugs.
But if you follow this to conclusion and 90% of your transactions become drugs, then you're not a grocery store, you're a drug dealer, and your entire marketpresence might fall apart.
iprayiam3
5mo ago
iprayiam3
6mo ago
So, anyway, despite the fact that I'm feeling pretty well, I won't be running a full marathon in 2023 because I don't feel that I've done the relevant training to put in a legitimate effort at the distance. Instead, I'll settle for a small half marathon to close out the year, try for one more personal best, and see what happens.
I ran at a D1 university. after getting out of college, I took a break from running, then planned to get back into it and really train for a full marathon. Any time an opportunity came up, I passed on it because I wasn't prepared to run my best possible marathon. A wife and kids later, I'm in my mid 30s and have never run a full marathon, and will never run my best marathon.
iprayiam3
6mo ago
I can certainly identify with the 'having an idealize girl' feeling, and the 'adjusting to an actual girl not meeting those ideals', and that led in my dating life to a lot of introspection about whether I needed to adjust my perception or find a better girl. But never anything like
I no longer cared much about them after replacing my idealized version of these ideas with versions based on my experiences.
Any grappling with comparisons to idealized fantasy girls was part of a deep desire to find real girls that fit the bill, never anything like disillusionment with dating girls generally.
All that to say, I can't really help ya. I hope you work through what you need to and decide what is best for you.
iprayiam3
6mo ago
I thought the DK effect had been debunked (at least in it's common pop framing) for quite a while? I thought the idea that good people under-estimate and bad people over-estimate, was known to be kind of a mythical tack-on to the central more boring claim that self-assessment isn't super reliable.
And, I thought the tack-on came from misunderstanding the one-directional limiting effects on mis-assessment at the top and bottom of a performace scale.
That is the better you are, the harder it objectively to overstate your competence. and vice versa. being good doesn't cause you to understate your ability, it reduces the error in overstating it.
Imagine 3 people who all take a 3-point basketball shot. All three are likely to correctly estimate their ability. A airballs, B hits the backboard, C makes it. they still respectively rank themselves correctly.
3 more people all take the shot. All three are likely to over-estimate their ability. D airballs, E hits the backboard, F makes it. D guesses he tied for second, E guesses he did the best, F also guesses he did the best.
3 more people all take the shot. All three are likely to under-estimate their ability. G airballs, H hits the backboard, I makes it. G guesses he did the worst, H also guesses he did the worst, I guesses he tied for first.
In these three groups of performance tiers: air-ballers, backboarders, and shot-makers, you have an even mix of estimation ability in each. Yet:
A,D,G collectively slightly over-estimated their ability B,E,H collectively got their average ability correct C,F,I collectively slightly underestimated their abiliy
Traditional Pop-understanding of DK effect, misinterprets this result that ADGs think they're better than they are and CFI thikn they're worse, when that's really kind of inverted. It's rather that ADG has less room to err down and CFI less room to err up.
You could run this again with many more groups and even give ADG a stronger propensity to underestimate and CFI a stronger propensity to overestimate, and you'd still get the DK effect.
Compare:
ADDGGGGGG -> still slightly over estimates their ability on average CFFFFFFFFII -> still slightly under estimates their ability on average
Even though the individuals in the group actually have the opposite propensity.
iprayiam3
6mo ago
I never really cared about getting a girlfriend, I just wanted social approval from my peers.
Back when I was single and lonely I could have been at risk of tell myself something exactly backwards from that:
I never really cared about social approval from my peers, I just wanted a girlfriend
That is to say, the desire for female companionship was far stronger and deeper and more substantial than any possibility that it was invented. On the other hand, the longing for social approval, while it objectively was also very real, was somewhat ephimeral and certainly displacable (and especially displacable by romantic approval of a single woman), to the point that I can kind of imagine that if I was slightly different, I could have falsely convinced myself that I didn't really care about social approval at all, it was just a dimension of my romantic loneliness. (and to be fair, once in a serious relationship, non-romantic social contexts do change tremendously and diminish in importance. )
So, what's my point? N=1, but if you can convince yourself that maybe you don't even really want a girlfriend, you're certainly outside of what my experience with normal romantic longing was. Far enough that it's true that you never really cared? I can't tell you that. But if you're looking for an outside measurement check - the ability to hold that thought doesn't resonate with my experience of authentically wanting a romantic partner.
There's so many possible directions to go that without any data to work off, it's hard to know where to even look.
My first question would be are gay people actually overrepresented? What is the base rate comparison?
Secondly, given an affirmative to the first questions, I'd ask whether its actually gay representation or out gay overrepresentation. Especially looking at any data prior to say 2010.
You would assume that being publically homosexual in a society where it's disapproved of would come at a significant cost. So it would follow that those most likely to pay it are those able to pay it.
Lets say you have 100 rich men and 100 middle class men in 1960. In each of those 6 are gay and another 10 are bisexual. In the middle class group 4 of those gay men and 9 of the bisexual men are not openly gay for fear of their livelihood and employment. Of the rich, say only 3 of the gays and 7 of the bisexual are closeted.
It would appear that the gays were overrepresnted in the rich. In actuality, rich people have more options.
The next thing I would think would be, as you suggest, among smart and conscientious people, homosexuals would historically be less occupied with supporting their families and minimizing that risk. So of the pool of gay people capable of being a celebrity intellect and proportional straight men, yeah I would assume enough of the straight men would have already invested the critical resources and time and attention toward family formation. Even a small difference would result in overrepresented gays in high status tournament style recognition.
I get it... It's sad because she didn't give him any grandchildren, right?
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