jkf
3hr ago
Out of curiosity, I disabled all user personalization, removed the NHS thing, removed Dase
Notably it seems to think that almost everyone might be Ilforte -- which is weird because he's got a pretty recognizable and unique style actually.
I'm guessing that corpus frequency is a big factor here -- have you tried posting less/shorter?
jkf
4hr ago
you'd need training programs for, with like, budgets and performance evaluations.
"true, this dog won't hunt -- but he's very rapey..."
jkf
4hr ago
If you can abolish one (presumably arguing that "bear" != "carry"!?), then there's no reason the next guy can't abolish the other on some similar pretext.
jkf
1d ago
I can't be arsed to do it, but it seems pretty trivial to plug whatever parameters you like into some simulation code and let it run a few million times? Some cases you will take one box but the alien predicted wrong and you get nothing; sometimes you take two and he was wrong and you get 1M + 1K. So long as he is mostly correct I don't see how the EV is not strongly driven by the cases where you pick the mystery box and get $1M -- no loss of free will required.
jkf
1d ago
If it's possible for someone to get away with two boxing and get both boxes, and you can put yourself in that scenario, then you can win by two boxing.
Let's put a number on it -- what successful prediction rate would Omega need to have for you to consider taking both boxes? Depends how badly you need a thousand bucks I guess?
jkf
2d ago
Too late for voting, too early for shooting -- we're at an awkward moment, but it will work itself out one way or another...
jkf
4d ago
I understand that that's the story -- I just don't believe it. (as with the earlier story that you are particularly likely to die a horrible death from sweeping out your cupboards without putting on a bunny suit first)
jkf
5d ago
It's been around since forever in western North America -- endemic in deer mice IIRC? This new one is a different strain I guess, but now that I think about it the mouse droppings thing was a very early nudge towards me being radicalized by public health morons.
"You need to be Extremely Concerned about cleaning up mouse poop in your cabin" -- which you and everyone else has been doing on a yearly basis since Time Immemorial, riiiight...
jkf
9d ago
No, it chooses the best one itself -- autonomous agents at your fingertips man.
jkf
9d ago
This argument smells like the old canard of LLMs not being able to do anything novel, not being able to do anything that they haven't seen before.
Well it's not -- LLMs are clearly useful systems, but it is equally clear that the way they accomplish things does not involve modelling the world.
LLMs don't make plans while evaluating tradeoffs and then do things to put those plans into action? I don't know how you can even believe that in May 2026. Have you never used a coding agent and had it plan a solution, seen it analyze different approaches with their respective tradeoffs, and seen it propose the option it thinks is best?
Using anthropomorphized language to describe something doesn't make it so. Does your car "analyze different approaches with their respective tradeoffs and implement the solution it thinks best" when you apply the anti-lock braking system?
jkf
9d ago
Twitter is not the world though -- maybe Twitter should actually run the experiment, with the consequence to being a losing Blue a permaban!
But seriously, Twitter has like half a billion MAU -- even if we accept the poll-takers as representative of Twitter, there are another several billion humans out there for many of whom "if you press this button you might die, if you press this one you won't" is a compelling case.
jkf
9d ago
It's unclear to me at which point even a human can be said to "model" chess.
Many humans of course do openings in a somewhat similar way; they memorize a bunch. The modelling comes in that a (competent) human will have memorized a number of opening variations, and will play into one that matches what he wants for the midgame; the LLM has essentially memorized a number of opening variations and then picks one using an element of randomness.
It's certainly possible to play good chess without memorizing openings; time constraints are the main reason to do so.
You can say: "Hmm, e4 -- he wants to dominate the centre with that pawn. I need to contest it; e5 would work -- or I could do it indirectly, like Nf6? But then he will just advance the pawn and threaten my knight; seems like a wasted move. Better stick with e5."
This takes much longer than "let's go for the Italian Game", but it's the kind of modelling that you need to do once beyond your memorized opening; LLMs don't do anything like that ever.
jkf
10d ago
I've driven from (southwest) Texas to Montana in a day; surely a motivated individual with a car could make it happen? Planes also exist, if one is not truly destitute.
jkf
10d ago
If the dumbest 40% of society are going to die, so am I if I vote with them. Am I missing something here?
Pretending to be retarded so I can be a part of a mass suicide doesn't seem like a great strategy; if it turns out to be actually so terrible (which I strongly doubt), I've certainly got personal options for dealing with a life-not-worth-living due to inadequate idiots in the world.
jkf
14d ago
By the letter of the law, e-bikes would definitely count -- vehicle (check) with a motor (check). (those scooter things can fuck off too)
The trouble is, boomers and environmentalists like them, and they are running the place!
jkf
14d ago
Same as me! Actual laws like this usually say "motorized vehicles" which makes almost all of the other quiz questions non-ambiguous, but I guess there'd still be some ambiguity about the tank depending on exactly how it was deactivated.
jkf
15d ago
Very much the former -- it's an unabashed propaganda campaign that would be completely unsurprising if it were done conventionally by some government hiring actors etc -- indeed it's in response to just such a campaign by the UK government!
What's interesting about it is that it seems to have been put together in a matter of days, by (as far as anyone knows!) non-state actors with limited resources and strong government operations. (the videos are probably illegal in the UK on the grounds of promoting hate)
So more of a worked example of AI videogens to create impact IRL than anything with much artistic merit. Just as handheld firearms democratized warfare (for a while), maybe publicly available AI (plus social media) will democratize the mobilization of egregores upon the genpop?
https://x.com/LBC/status/2015894345770045489 (MSM backgrounder)
https://x.com/ABridgen/status/2013157247820406995 (first video)
https://x.com/AmeliajakSolana (whoever's doing the videos -- I notice they've pretty much switched to images now, so probably Sora is indeed what they were using -- you'd need to scroll way down for the rest of the videos, they were coming out regularly a few months ago)
jkf
16d ago
Not sure if it's what you're after (nor the creative process they're using), but the ongoing "Amelia" series on Brit-Twitter is producing coherent and effective political shorts on a fast timeline...
jkf
16d ago
They (meaning the American agencies -- local state capacity here is not even in the same ballpark) could probably get most of the guns in Canada; for the USA -- Civil War stuff aside -- there's not even the state capacity to win the War on Drugs.
The War on Guns would be much tougher even if you didn't have a rifleman behind every blade of grass fighting alongside the gangbangers.
jkf
17d ago
The guns might not be legal, but even in Canada you do need to consider the possibility that anyone you encounter could be armed -- all the laws in the world can't change this.
jkf
17d ago
If you live in North America, the other people have guns whether you like it or not, though...
jkf
19d ago
There’s no way. Testosterone is a helluva drug.
It's probably mostly reporting bias -- women hit their partners all the time in relationships, but when that partner is a man it's:
a)no big deal because she hits like a girl
b) kind of embarrassing to report that your girlfriend is abusing you
In a lesbian relationship, neither partner is used to receiving any kind of violence, and both are socially predisposed to treat any kind of violence (done by someone other than themselves!) as a relationship red line -- so that cops/statisticians are much more likely to hear about it.
Those ads were pretty expensive too though -- thousands a month for a decent sized (1/2 - 1/4 page) 'attractor' in the yellow pages IIRC.
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