jkf
1mo ago
jkf
1mo ago
I think it was called out because it's pretty notable for a woman in Tumbler Ridge (55° N) to be wearing a dress in February -- local fashion I'd expect to run more towards lumberjack shirts even in the bug warm season.
The fact that the person was wearing a dress is in-and-of itself indicative of trans status IMO.
jkf
1mo ago
95% true -- it's a very small town where everybody literally knows everybody, and neighbours etc. have more-or-less confirmed the shooter's identity (both kinds!) on twitter.
There are fake (well real, but the wrong person) photos of a ridiculous young tranny from Ontario floating around; AFAICT that person has the same last name but is not the shooter; a yearbook photo of Jesse Strang for Tumblr Tumbler Ridge shows a much better effort but is still identifiably trans.
jkf
1mo ago
A (young and incompetent sounding) American reporter from ABC NY called into the press conference last night and was referring to the shooter as a "gun-person" -- the cop answering questions mirrored it for a while but seemed unenthused; politicians today are picking it up in their statements so maybe it will catch on!
A true win for peoplekind...
jkf
1mo ago
Apparently they are used only for "serious crimes" so probably not in this case. Unless it were to be framed as sexual assault, which seems unlikely.
Also it seems as though as of this year they've eliminated the Scottish quirk of "not proven" as an option for juries -- hard to say what the impact might be, but I don't think that's a verdict that judges return so it shouldn't impact the bet.
jkf
1mo ago
co2 emissions per capita peaked around 2000 in the developed world
Now do industrial production...
jkf
1mo ago
"no donations to the Stormfront server fund," got it.
I'd also prefer the cash -- details on that can be TBD; it depends how private you need to be I suppose, but we can figure it out. (and I'm gonna say ~50/50 we won't have to given the "no bet" possibilities)
jkf
1mo ago
I'm fine with the honour system if you are -- thanks anyways @ArginFerman!
So AIUI -- no resolution if neither of these two is tried on these charges (ie. some plea bargain to a lesser offense would be no bet; a guilty plea on what's described above is probably a win for me though?), or if nothing happens within two years.
In the event of a trial, I need a guilty verdict; "not proven", hung jury, not guilty etc. all resolve in your favour.
If you have any other scenarios we should cover, let me know?
jkf
1mo ago
pro tip: saying you are in the top 1% of brainpower out there is just going to make you come off as an arrogant jerk, so drop that line
Either that or they'll say "well actually we are kind of after the upper .01%, sorry" -- probably a bit of both actually!
jkf
1mo ago
I'm pretty high trust myself, and can certainly find a way to get you 25 sterling without resorting to crypto -- but if you need someone to hold the dough that's fine with me. Pick somebody and we can both send them some cash -- I don't expect the mills of Scottish justice to grind excessively fast on this one.
jkf
1mo ago
I grant that they aren't garden-variety Trump voters, but do you think Mennonites vote for Harris?
Mennonites are notoriously non-federalized, but AFAIK the conservative ones don't vote at all. (with possible exceptions made in the event of the Second Coming, but even then you'd want to watch out for the Antichrist!)
jkf
1mo ago
So you will go 2:1 on this?
I have 100 British Pounds to your 200 that, contingent on a trial occurring, a guilty verdict is returned. (ie. bet is off if there's a plea bargain; you can have "not proven" or whatever jury shenanigans might be possible in Scotland though)
When half the country is panicking and wants lockdowns, and half the country is enraged and fedposting about civil liberties, how exactly is an institution supposed to maintain credibility with the entire population?
My suggestion would be to not inflame the population over it with a massive fear-mongering media campaign combined with insane unconstitutional regulations -- the lockdowns might have been popular-ish for the first few weeks or so, but without all the media and 'nudging' I think this would have faded pretty fast. Indeed it probably could have been nipped in the bud by China coverage along the lines of "look what the crazy totalitarians are doing now" and some pictures of Tank Man rather than "what a good idea!"
Public opinion is super malleable at the moment, is what I'm saying.
It's nevertheless still optimal on the societal and individual level to largely trust the institutions.
That's taking it a tad far.
jkf
1mo ago
Did they crack down on medical tourism to Canada in some permanent way, back in the day?
The intern at Lilley forgot to renew the patent here, and half of our doctors are literally Nigerians -- they tend to just prescribe whatever you tell them to, so long as it's not narcotics.
jkf
1mo ago
Or maybe required weekly inspections for a year before the event, to establish the baseline and prevent the anomalous inflation?
If there isn't a "Norwegian Penis Inspection Team" t-shirt, there should be.
jkf
1mo ago
I do not think that TSA can distinguish Muslims from non-Muslims by sight
"Try our free ribs for expedited security clearance"...
jkf
1mo ago
My point is just that "mandatory medical procedure" does not code "Everything in the State, nothing outside the State, nothing against the State" to a greater degree than other things which are very common
It's everything in the state, not "the state owns some trains and funds schools" -- mandatory ID does strike me kind of fascist, but is not a thing that US government does AFAIK?
Anyways the point is that while it's (maybe?) possible to imagine a forced vaccination program that doesn't rely on "nothing against the state" type rhetoric, the COVID one definitely did.
jkf
1mo ago
for example, state railways, public schooling with civics classes, and mandatory ID.
Those don't seem all that salient at the moment (nor Trumpy)?
It started well before the mandates; how else can you frame widespread and clearly unconstitutional restrictions on freedom of movement etc. "for the good of the state"? I literally had reddit normies upvoting and commenting in agreement with (less famous) Mussolini quotes at the time -- it was very bad.
jkf
1mo ago
It's even worse, really -- I'm sure you could establish a reasonably strong correlation between Trump-voting parents and MAGA-chud children over the entire population; on the other hand there are millions of SIG 320s out there, with very few NDs at all and zero strongly confirmed ADs. The probabalistic argument isn't even particularly strong.
jkf
1mo ago
It's actually a lot easier to see what's going on by watching the video (maybe slowed down a tick) with sound -- it's clear to me that he has his trigger finger not only outside the guard, but wrapped around the grip -- as you would hold a hammer or something and a finger's width lower than you normally would.
That seems like the safest way to handle a gun that you aren't sure of the loaded/safety status of -- but would be fairly uncontrollable if that gun were to somehow go off.
jkf
1mo ago
More like 1923 Germany, if anything -- even there, at least there were some firefights.
jkf
1mo ago
Is this a thing that is associated with fascist dictatorships more strongly than with other forms of government?
"Everything in the State, nothing outside the State, nothing against the State" is arguably more of a generic totalitarian sentiment, but I think it's safe to say it's pretty strongly associated with fascism?
Strong chance that this demographic is also on SSRIs, so that hypothesis still has legs too, IMO.
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