magic9mushroom
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User ID: 1103
magic9mushroom
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6mo ago
Could you make the title normal rather than ALL CAPITAL LETTERS? It's a bit eye-grabbing when browsing the main page.
magic9mushroom
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1yr ago
Is there something about this that's interesting? TBQH I'm not seeing any light here.
magic9mushroom
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1yr ago
Suppose there's a foreign country with a two party system where each party wins roughly half the time and economic performance and thermostatic effects strongly predict electoral outcomes. Which conclusion does Occam's razor support, that this is a fair competitive system or that it's massively tilted in favor of one party?
I'm not sure that the institutional delegitimisation of the Republican Party is old enough to confidently state "each party wins roughly half the time".
magic9mushroom
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30d ago
I mean, the key attribute here is the monotony of it. As he notes, n=1 isn't really enough to say much because the pairing is not exactly unknown. It takes a good memory, a reasonable amount of exposure to modern Western media, and some level of political awareness to, as you put it, "notice". Most people don't have that. TheMotte concentrates those who do, but it's still not everyone here.
As it happens, @George_E_Hale has just admitted that he's not exposed to all that much of this.
Some charity would be nice. Even a reasonable amount of SJers haven't noticed this sort of thing; I didn't until somewhat after I left.
magic9mushroom
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3mo ago
Depends what sort of threat you're talking about.
Bigger GCR? Yes, definitely.
Bigger X-risk? No. Pandemics can't kill off humanity because they'll die off before population density reaches 0. Biorisk is definitely #2 on my list of X-risks this century, and in the same order of magnitude as #1 i.e. AI, but that's Life 2.0 risks - synthetic biology that's not a human pathogen but whose replication destroys something humans need (e.g. a synthetic alga that doesn't need phosphate, has better carbon-fixing than RuBisCO, and can't be digested by the aquatic foodchain, which would pull down the atmospheric and then biospheric carbon into useless gunk on the seafloor and thus cause total crop failure).
magic9mushroom
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10mo ago
So we already have one example of an extreme leftist position that was pushed out of the overton window only to return far stronger than before, apparently with the assistance of liberals with a no-enemies-to-the-left policy. Why will this be any different?
The usual argument for abolishing the AoC is about individual freedom. That's very much not an extreme leftist position; it's an extreme liberal position - a libertine position.
SJ is sometimes called "the successor ideology" because it grew out of liberal culture but is not liberal itself. The direction you go from moderate liberalism to get to SJ is at an obtuse angle with the direction you'd have to go to get to abolishing the AoC. And I say that as someone who wants to lower the AoC.
Does SJ memory-hole stories about gay molestors and occasionally enable them*? Yes. That's because they're optimising too hard on "accept gay people" - to quote B5, "conspiracies of silence because the larger ideals have to be protected". It's not because they actually support child molestation in and of itself.
*The conservative media amplifies this for the exact same reason the SJ media suppresses it i.e. it is highly politically inconvenient for the Blue Tribe narrative. It's not actually as common as reading conservative media would lead you to believe.
magic9mushroom
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1yr ago
That is some important context, yes.
magic9mushroom
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4mo ago
Abbott numquam iacuit aleam et habuit fidem before.
I mean, the Texas Republicans are the obvious spark for an actual Boogaloo (as opposed to a Jan-6-level joke), and I've predicted before that they're reasonably-likely to go open rebellion if the election's fucked with.
Wouldn't have expected something this early, but it's possible Abbott wants to demonstrate to the voters that he'll secede if the election's stolen.
magic9mushroom
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5mo ago
"People will die at 35 degrees wet-bulb" is very much a real problem. The questions are the degree to which this will actually start happening (probably not a lot; we're looking at something like 3 degrees warming of GMST and the tropics/subtropics will get less than that) and the degree to which people will actually stay there to get killed.
The tropics don't normally get to 35 wet-bulb, which is not a coincidence - if they did, humans would have evolved with a higher body temperature to allow survival there. The highest Singapore's ever gotten, for instance, is something like 33.6, and it's usually much lower.
magic9mushroom
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9mo ago
· Edited 9mo ago
The Russian army has barely managed to take the relatively small parts of Ukraine that it currently controls and simply does not have the strength to take on Poland's military in open combat while at the same time fighting Ukraine.
You're replying to something JJJ explicitly noted he wasn't saying.
I don't also expect Putin to invade Poland tomorrow (or this year, or anytime before Ukraine situation has resolved one way or another)
But yes, would be pretty stupid to invade a NATO country. Sure, there's the fig-leaf of Wagner/Belarus, but Article 5 still gets invoked, Wagner/Belarus get swatted like a fly (unlikely that they could beat Poland anyway, to be honest), and still no-win for Russia.
magic9mushroom
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1yr ago
· Edited 1yr ago
Ugh, antimemetics strikes again. He's failed to comprehend the difficulty of the problem, as have you.
A decade is probably not enough time to solve alignment. Solving NN alignment is probably impossible, and getting anything more alignable up to human-equivalent is a lot more than a decade's work.
Also, there can't be any exceptions for governments playing with unaligned AI. Doesn't matter how trustworthy they are; the demons they summon will be just as bad as anyone else's. If a government plays with this, it must be destroyed. Roko understands this, as seen in the Twitter replies; you don't seem to.
magic9mushroom
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1yr ago
Might read a transcript; not spending an hour listening without a hell of a better submission statement.
magic9mushroom
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1yr ago
Who are you accusing of seeking power within EA? Or, within what other institution is power being sought?
magic9mushroom
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1yr ago
(although not on lgbtq stuff, that is locked in forever once the boomers stop taking up all the cultural space)
The TQ stuff is likely to blow up in a spectacular way once all the sterilised kids grow up and huge chunks of them decide they were failed by the system (and the rest of the probability space mostly looks like "AI killed us" or "we get fertility-restoration tech"). It's exactly the sort of thing that makes a society decide Never Again once everyone's had time to stand back and process.
There's also the issue that nuclear war is pretty likely in the near future and I think that most SJers literally dying in a fire would lead to the few who survived getting removed from power; SJ's hold on the countryside is tenuous.
And, y'know, the stats of millennials/zoomers who reproduce are immensely different from the rest along this axis.
Not obvious how fast Thermidor will come or how far it will go, but I wouldn't count it out just yet.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
Note the word "force". "If you put a gun to my head and demand I ally with X or anti-X, I pick anti-X" =/= "I am, IRL, allied to anti-X".
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
Oh yeah, obviously selecting on randomly-assorted groups isn't going to get very far. But that's not super-relevant to HBD questions since human prehistory did not consist of randomly-assorted groups.
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
I think his point is that yelling "DON'T THINK ABOUT ELEPHANTS" at the top of your voice on every street corner is going to make people start looking around for elephants.
I think that assuming this to be intentional is in violation of Hanlon's Razor, though.
magic9mushroom
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4mo ago
As we saw with COVID, that's an exception that can swallow most of the rule.
The various censorship on that was aimed at "misinformation"; AFAIK they rarely alleged deliberate lies. There's definitely a huge issue with trying to police misinformation, but if you can prove that someone's deliberately lying I see little issue.
magic9mushroom
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7mo ago
We don't know for certain that people in hunter-gatherer societies also don't feel some sort of alienation with the labor they do.
IIRC when they tried explaining depression to hunter-gatherers, the hunter-gatherers straight-up thought the idea was absurd.
I don't think all the West's problems come from this, but this is very definitely a big part of depression.
magic9mushroom
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7mo ago
38% does not constitute majority ownership, which would mean that whatever perceived exploitation there was would have been mostly the product of native Slovaks
38% of property doesn't equal 38% of businesses. If indeed the non-Jews owned basically all the land, then the Jews would have owned more than 38% of businesses (assuming, again, that one can trust the 38% number).
magic9mushroom
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7mo ago
Usual QALY given for depression is something like 0.7 IIRC; suicide is generally considered a much worse outcome than "being depressed for a while".
magic9mushroom
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8mo ago
Mmm, "would rampage if he/she had an opportunity and no better options existed" would be much closer to correct. Checking back through some of the various times I've earnestly called people scum, most of them fall into "plan A is removing these people from power, plan B for things that don't need power is throwing them in jail, but if I only have the options of killing them or letting them keep ruining everything then killing them is the less-bad option".
magic9mushroom
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1yr ago
Protip: If you are a woman, do not ever put something like this in your dating profile. This will be used as an excuse for some weirdo on the edge of sanity to stalk you.
You're assuming that she doesn't want to be stalked, though, and...
Pro sincere enthusiasms. I listen to hymns a lot (here’s my favorite). I like patriotic anthems, and poems about going to war. I don’t like irony or use of the word ‘cringe’.
Fan of love. I’m not into loving less out of concern for looking lame. I think loving is cool, even if unrequited, or ridiculous, or in the face of a mountain of flaws.
Have a truly excessive amount of sex while falling madly in love with one other
...I see no compelling evidence of that. There's definitely a population of women who want that; Twilight hit bestseller status for a reason.
(Spreading it as widely as she did, though, is still not logistically a good idea since it increases the risk of getting herself 2+ stalkers and the accompanying free Nice Boat.)
magic9mushroom
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1yr ago
Ideally, certainly, but to make it reliable you need control of the legal system (as most people can be deterred by punching being illegal, and because if being punched entitles you to full compensation it's no deterrent to doing punchable things), which is not reliable against white-collar arseholes (citation: every Western law code). You can't compensate a murder victim, though, so murder's still a deterrent even if murder's illegal.
I kind of wonder about that. The institutions that launder that sort of information into public awareness are to a large extent captured by people who are anti-Israel, so it's actually kind of questionable how many people they'd lose vs. the counterfactual by actually doing massive war crimes. A lot of the populace already thinks Israel's guilty of ethnic cleansing, and a reasonable amount have heard "Wolf!" cried enough times that they've tuned out and won't believe reports of massacres; there's just not all that much of the US meaningfully in play here.
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