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netstack

The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.

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joined 2022 September 05 17:27:40 UTC 

				
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netstack


								

								

								
								
									
								
								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.

				
				
				

				

					9 followers  

					follows 3 users  

					joined 2022 September 05 17:27:40 UTC
				


				
					

					
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				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 8, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I’ve been feeling an oncoming crash for years, and it hasn’t paid off yet. From my COMPLETELY UNSCIENTIFIC, VIBES-ONLY perspective, the market has absorbed all sorts of rate changes and price spikes and geopolitical boondoggles which might have reasonably been expected to presage a crash. But then, if it was obvious, it would be priced in, right?


Speaking of which. The big AI companies are absurdly valued, which is not the same as being incorrectly valued. Pricing the possibility of a market-shattering payoff has historically caused markets to diverge from normal human expectations. This isn’t great, but it’s not inherently disastrous in the same way as, say, the subprime mortgage situation.


It only ends up a bubble if AI plateaus, stops picking up new niches, before debt outpaces investment. This is entirely possible and I don’t know what the leading indicators would be.


If AI expands into any other sector of the economy, it pays off. I suspect this would require a major change in robotics (to cover skilled trades, etc.) or ethics (to allow violence). Some of these routes are extremely goddamn dystopian, but at least they aren’t bubbles, right?


That said, AI isn’t the only source of optimistic IPOs. There is a lot of interest in manufacturing and defense investment. Onshoring stuff which might become contentious. I could believe that this is its own bubble; people want to believe that manufacturing will spring up. If they are underestimating the cost of local improvements, or overestimating the reliability of the current administration, there’s potential for some serious disappointment.




Add this to the list of things I hope I'm wrong about, because if we get a proper crash, the political fallout is going to be massive.




Ha. Norm MacDonald continues to be relevant.


Besides, if the techbros are revealed as delusional, if all the slush funds and gold plating in the country can’t stave off a crash…what are we supposed to think? Sorry, Trump was just holding the hot potato, blame the wreckers?