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omw_68


				

				

				
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joined 2022 September 08 10:28:31 UTC

				

User ID: 1014

omw_68


				
				
				

				
1 follower   follows 0 users   joined 2022 September 08 10:28:31 UTC

					

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User ID: 1014

A 25% decline is not unreal for a surprise election win by the socialist party in a third-world country. Currency devaluation, property expropriation, excessive taxation, and bans on foreign distributions are all realistic possibilities.

Yeah, I think that the default assumption is that the market is reasonably efficient and is pricing in bona fide risks.

I think it does happen now and then that real inefficiencies develop; including inefficiencies that can be spotted and exploited by amateur investors and other laymen. But I think that's pretty unusual.

My instinct is that if you buy into the Brazilian markets today, it's like the proverbial sprint in front of a steam roller to grab a nickel off the pavement.

But then again, I'm one of those cautious long-term Boglehead type investors.

My point is that "maybe the government will use this against me" is not a particularly good argument against public transport considering the many upsides. Especially considering that the corrupt measures taken were ultimately ineffectual.

You could just as easily turn it around: If everyone used public transport, there would have been no reason to delay it, as it would no longer be an effective way to profile people. So actually, you should enforce a ban on cars.

Also consider that private transportation only works as long as the roads are maintained and there is access to fuel. Similarly, private companies can be in charge of bus routes and trains. So I don't think your conclusion follows as naturally as you think.

For better or for worse "maybe the government will use this against me" permeates just about all aspects of modern life. That being said, I do think that private cars, as compared to public transport, give a considerable boost to a person's practical freedom.

A person trained to use firearm, draw the weapon, pointed it at another person at short range, pulled the trigger and by some "freak accident" the other person died.

I'd be interested to know (1) how fast the two cars were moving; (2) whether the windows were opened; and (3) whether reports are correct that the bullet ricocheted off the headrest. Quite possibly the fatality was a freak event in some sense.

I'm not an expert, but I think it would be pretty difficult to deliver a fatal shot from one moving car to another; through a closed window; with your blood pumping and while also driving a car. I don't have either the specific facts or even much in the way of background knowledge. I do know that shooting accurately usually requires focus and it's difficult to focus when you are driving a car, especially if you are in an extreme emotional state.

I'm pretty sure that if I were in that situation, I would have a hard time pulling out my cell phone and dialing 911, let alone drawing a handgun and delivering an accurate shot.

It's an interesting thought experiment. There have been uncountable versions of Cinderella around the world, probably some of which have originated independently. It really is a foundational story type. Perhaps there are versions like the one you suggest where Cinderella is mistreated but doesn't distinguish herself in how she reacts to that. And sure the story would still work as there'd be satisfaction in seeing someone who's been treated unfairly winning the lottery, husband and wealth wise. But it's gonna work best if we think she's a good person who bears her misfortune with patience and is kind to small animals.

Perhaps, but it's not an essential element of the story. By contrast, take the 7 years of faithful labor out of the Miller boy's story and it's a completely different story.

We wouldn't accept her being rewarded if she didn't demonstrate her character by having gone through something tough first.

Well, what if "going through something tough" had simply been that her (Cinderella's) sisters got nice clothes and such while she had to wear hand-me-downs; the sisters got to go to fancy events while she didn't, etc. In that case, she's not particularly doing any chores. It seems to me that with that change, the story would not be fundamentally different.

I would like to discuss the recent road rage incident which took place on the Manhattan ramp to the outbound George Washington Bridge.

Evidently what happened was (1) there were two totally unrelated men both driving home at the end of the day; (2) The alleged shooter was a 62 year old retired NYPD detective named Victor Romero; (3) the victim was an off duty Con Ed worker named Koran Irvine; (4) the two had some sort of dispute over a lane change which didn't work out; and (5) Romero (allegedly) opened fire against Irving, killing him with a shot to the neck.

(I should mention that traffic in that area is almost always rather intense, drivers tend to be aggressive, and it's pretty common for people to end up in situations where they are honking their horns, yelling at each other, etc.)

In any event, based on photographs it appears that Koran Irvine was black. I haven't seen his picture, but I would guess with high probability that the (alleged) shooter is white based on his name. (The NYC area has lots of white guys with Italian-American sounding names.)

Anyway, what's interesting to me is that New York County has a Soros-style DA, Alvin Bragg. So it seems like this is a mouthwatering opportunity for him to throw the book at a white guy for shooting and killing a black guy. Especially since the black guy seems like a sympathetic victim (he apparently has a full time job and is married with children). And yet I read that the charges against Romero have already been reduced from murder to manslaughter and that he's out on bail.

What's going on here? Is my theory of mind about Alvin Bragg off the mark?

ETA: By the way, I am not familiar with the New York law of homicide, but I am aware that in general there is a principle called the "depraved heart" doctrine. The idea is that some acts are so reckless that they will imply the necessary intent for murder even in the absence of premeditation or deliberation. The classic example of this is discharging a firearm into a building which is known by the shooter to be occupied. So it seems like there is a basis here to charge the (alleged) shooter with murder even if it was just a spontaneous road rage incident.

She's proved her worthiness to us the audience through her previous years of suffering with dignity though.

That's not how the story is framed. And in a fable for children, if such a connection were intended it would be pretty obvious.Just look at the Miller's Boy and Cat story. They don't exactly hide the fact that the protagonist is being rewarded for his 7 years of faithful service.

Implicitly, Cinderella is a hard worker, kind, and agreeable. Arguably all traits she honed in the adverse environment and what ultimately makes her more attractive to the prince than her lazy and entitled family.

Not in the version of Cinderella I read as a youth. In the version I read, what made her attractive was the fact that she was attractive. I wouldn't be surprised at all if more recent versions of the story reframed things in the direction you suggest, but to me that kind of proves the point. Probably if Disney made Cinderella today, she would have mad skills which she uses to save the Prince and his kingdom.

It's true, but what the boy has to do to prove to the cat he is worthy is pretty easy – just stick around and do the chores he is told to do.

Narratively it's 7 years of labor. More importantly, it's very clearly framed as stuff the protagonist must do to in order to prove himself.

She has to 'do' a few things like blend in at a high society event, disguising her real identity; sprint out of the ball before midnight to avoid humiliation; and escape being locked in a room by her stepmother so that she can try on the slipper and prove she is the woman the prince danced with.

Those things aren't really framed as labors she must do to prove her worthiness.

So I'm still not seeing it.

Surprisingly common trope, actually. A lot of coming-of-age plots out there, where the main character has inherited some great power, and he has to accept himself in order to use it.

Depending on execution, the "prophecized hero king who will save the world" trope is this. The main character is born awesome and talented, and even in his darkest moments he cannot keep himself from being competent. His skills are neglected and dormant, not neglected and gone.

I think that usually in these types of stories, the male hero has to have adventures, training, etc. in order to live up to his destiny. All Cinderella needed was a nice set of clothes and a ride to the ball.

but some really do just revel in the fantasy of being talented and loved by the word.

Yes, it surely happens, but it doesn't seem all that noteworthy to me. Can you think of a male Cinderella story where the male protagonist kind of just has awesomeness and acclaim dropped into his lap? I'm not denying that they exist, but I suspect they are obscure.

Also not a superhero movie but It’s a Wonderful Life.

I think that there is a subtle difference between It's a Wonderful Life and a female-focused story where society discovers how wonderful the woman is. (For example the Cinderella tale.)

In It's a Wonderful Life, the main character makes various sacrifices -- he partially loses his hearing saving his brother; he cancels his honeymoon to save his bank; he never makes it out of Bedford Falls despite his burning desire to travel. And so on.

So it's not just the world discovering how great he is. Rather, the main character is suffering and sacrificing to prove to the world how great he is.

By contrast, Cinderella is made to suffer (by doing household chores) but that's not to prove that she is great; it's not to earn her stripes; it's not to accomplish anything at all, other than to (narratively) show that society (as personified by her wicked stepmother) doesn't appreciate her value and therefore mistreats her.

Harry Potter assumes his destiny (as a wizard, and therefore as a higher being than Dudley) before he goes off on the adventures or receives his education and training.

I disagree. Cinderella marrying her prince = Harry defeating Voldemort (and to some extent, marrying Ginny).

The Poor Miller's Boy and the Cat is pretty much exactly Cinderella but with a boy. Basically the king's daughter, in the form of a cat picks a poor and mistreated but hardworking boy to live with her in a golden palace. https://www.grimmstories.com/en/grimm_fairy-tales/the_poor_millers_boy_and_the_cat

I read the story and found something which to me was very interesting. Basically, in order to get his reward, the boy must serve the princess for 7 years; he must chop wood; tend to the meadow; and build a house:

, however, had to serve the cat, and chop some wood every day, and to do that, he had an axe of silver, and the wedge and saw were of silver and the mallet of copper. So he chopped the wood small; stayed there in the house and had good meat and drink, but never saw anyone but the tabby-cat and her servants. Once she said to him, "Go and mow my meadow, and dry the grass," and gave him a scythe of silver, and a whetstone of gold, but bade him deliver them up again carefully. So Hans went thither, and did what he was bidden, and when he had finished the work, he carried the scythe, whetstone, and hay to the house, and asked if it was not yet time for her to give him his reward. "No," said the cat, "you must first do something more for me of the same kind. There is timber of silver, carpenter's axe, square, and everything that is needful, all of silver, with these build me a small house." Then Hans built the small house, and said that he had now done everything, and still he had no horse. Nevertheless the seven years had gone by with him as if they were six months.

In other words, the boy had to prove that he was worthy.

While it's true that Cinderella had to do household chores, I would argue that the point of the chores was not to show how faithful she was, but rather to (narratively) show that society did not recognize her value.

So I would say that no, the two stories are not exactly the same. They are different in almost exactly the way described by posters who have argued that women automatically get value while men must earn their value.

To be sure, I don't dispute that if you looked hard enough you could find stories out there which go against this dichotomy. But it does seem like, at a minimum, the idea is very deeply ingrained in human thinking.

but you actually could make a Karate Kid type story out of that, with her stepmother and stepsisters unwittingly playing the role of Mr. Miyagi in making her competent through adversity

Sure, if she developed some skill from handling all those chores and then later used that skill to defeat some bad guy or whatever. And my guess is that if you tweaked the story in that way, it would seem more masculine to people; it would be more appealing to boys; it would be less appealing to girls. And if you pushed it far enough, you'd end up with Kill Bill.

I think the problem is that writing that letter is basically guaranteed to backfire

I wouldn't go that far, because you never really know what will happen, but yeah, certainly it may be a Hail Mary play.

I think the answer is that, in our post-feminist egalitarian society, (the majority of) women believe people are born, and (the majority of) men believe people are made, and they don't really recognize each other's concept of value.

The counter-example which comes to my mind is the movie Groundhog Day. In terms of the relationship between the male lead and female lead, it followed the pattern that the man had to work on himself; and learn; and develop; and overcome his flaws; and finally make himself worthy for the woman. The woman didn't change at all during the movie, she was more or less perfect from the beginning to the end. In other words, it seems that the movie was a very close fit to the narrative that women are born while men are made.

Nevertheless, my impression is that Groundhog Day was very popular among women. And as far as I can tell, they don't seem troubled at all by the fact that Bill Murray's character was 100% made not born. In fact, they seem to like the whole character arc where he grows and makes himself worthy of Andy McDowell's character.

Here's a thought experiment which takes place in real life: Suppose a woman is looking for a husband and she would prefer a man who is financially well off. Would it make a difference to her if the man is wealthy due to an inheritance or due to having put together a successful startup which sold to Google, Microsoft, etc.? (All things being equal, of course.) I think that the woman (and in fact society in general) would have a great deal more regard for a man who built something valuable from scratch. There just seems to be a deep-rooted societal idea that a man needs to go out and slay the dragon (and become more formidable during the process.)

What stops men from writing stories where they're already wonderful and people just don't realize it?

To me, this is an interesting question. From the female side of things, the story that comes to mind is Cinderella. Note that to become a beautiful and desirable woman, Cinderella didn't need to train with a Jedi master or do battle with some Dark Lord. She just needed a deus ex machina to provide her some nice clothes and a sweet ride.

So is there a male Cinderella story out there? What comes to my mind is The Once and Future King by T.H. White. It tells the story of a young King Arthur who is consigned to a subordinate and secondary role in relation to his foster-brother Kay. Possibly it served as inspiration for Harry Potter and Dudley which is also a sort of male Cinderella story in some respects.

But what's very different is that these male Cinderellas (1) go off on adventures; and (2) receive education and training. Only then can they assume their destinies.

So why the difference? The only thing I can think of is that generally speaking male main characters are aimed at male audiences and boys (and men) aren't very interested in stories where the male hero is already wonderful and it's just a matter of people realizing it.

In other words, it seems that this idea that women are born while men are made is believed at a very deep level by most people; perhaps it's even informed by our genes.

Aside from all of the recent moves that can conceivably be dismissed as having some other motivation, they penned a 24 page "letter to the American public" in which they explicitly stated that they wanted to influence the midterm elections in favor of the Democrats and that voting for them was what they wanted Americans to do.

I'm not joking, by the way, you can Google this. It's utterly baffling that that's the message they'd write to the dozen or so Americans willing to read a 24 page letter from the Iranian government in full, but it is indeed what they wrote.

Well you don't seem to deny that as of late there has been growing anti-Israel sentiment in the Democratic party. Nor do you seem to deny that the Iranian leadership is desperate. (Not desperate in the sense of being on the brink of collapse, but desperate in the sense of being extremely squeezed financially.) Those two facts offer a reasonably good explanation for this letter you cite.

Only true when compared to introverted men.

I'm not sure what you are trying to say here. @satirizedoor was comparing men to women. Generally speaking, women automatically get valued by society while men do not. To be sure, some women are valued more than others, but in this context it's misleading to say that women are invisible/ignored if they are unattractive or introverted or both. Because it's an overstatement compared to the way society treats men.

Is there overlap? Would an extroverted, attractive but completely unaccomplished man be valued more than an introverted unattractive woman? Possibly yes, but I think that this doesn't take away from the general observation made by @satirizedoor.

Attractive and extroverted women. Introverts get the short end of the stick all the time, regardless of physical appearance.

I would have to disagree with this, at least if we are comparing introverted women to introverted men.

I get the sentiment, but I think a more accurate picture is that attractive women have value via puberty, and unattractive women dont and are ignored/invisible.

I tend to disagree with this. Here's a thought experiment: Suppose there were (1) an unattractive woman in mild distress in a public place; or (2) an unattractive man in mild distress in a public place. For example, it appears that the person has just been kicked out of his/her apartment and is facing homelessness. Who is more likely to receive offers of help from strangers? Who is more likely to receive better and more prompt help from society? I think it's pretty obvious that it's the woman.

If you want to argue that attractive women are valued more than unattractive women, I won't dispute you. But to claim that unattractive women are ignored/invisible? Not at all, at least in comparison to low status men.

I would say that he passes by writing male dialogue for his female characters. Real life assassins are men, as are people who go on 'rip-roaring rampages of revenge'.

I'm tempted to point out that Kill Bill is wildly unrealistic regardless of the sex of the characters, but I basically think you are more or less correct here.

That being said, I think this observation is basically consistent with my overall hypothesis.

To illustrate, suppose (1) in one movie, two characters of the same sex are having a discussion about the best way to get into a bank vault and steal the MacGuffin; and (2) in another movie, two characters of the same sex are talking about how one of them received a text message from an ex and is wondering whether or not to meet that person for lunch.

Which these is more likely to be "male dialogue"? Which of these is more likely to be in a movie which is oriented towards male audiences? Probably your answer is (1) because in real life, women do not plan heists. And in real life, heist movies tend to be more oriented towards male audiences.

In other words, it seems to me that the tendency of movies to fail the Bechdel Test is not so much due to invidious anti-female bias but rather a difference in male and female proclivities and interests.

It reminds me of Star Trek television show (or was it a movie?) a few years back where early on there was a scene of two female officers on an alien planet facing some kind of hostile terrain together. It seemed highly likely at the time that the scene was shoehorned in so that the show could pass the Bechdel Test. But I am pretty sure you would call this "male dialogue." In the sense that when a member of an armed service is sent on a dangerous mission on hostile terrain, it's normally a man.

Black Widow is written as a person haunted by the evil she’s done suggesting her internal goodness.

Would you mind linking a couple clips of her showing what you mean? TIA.

From what I remember of the first few seasons, yes. But it has been a while.

I'd never even heard of or watched the show, but I watched a couple clips just now on YouTube and I'm not really seeing it. Her big flaws (being obsessed with her work and easily distracted) kind of reminds me of Bella Swan of Twighlight's big flaw: That she is clumsy. Maybe link to a couple clips to show me what you are talking about?

Bill and Bud talk a little bit about how Bud says he sold his sword. But that's also in the middle of the context of him warning him about the bride.

Right, for the most part the conversation is about Beatrix. Certainly if the genders were all reversed, feminists would count it as a conversation between two women about a man.