pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
No bio...
User ID: 278
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
4mo ago
You can find papers with actuarial analysis, side effect rates and presentations, justification for the schedule and so on.
So do it.
I can't. You know I can't. I don't have the background training, or the time, or possibly even the raw intelligence. And even if I did, I don't have the credentials that are required to make my opinion valid.
This is just ordinary epistemic helplessness. I do know two things: first, that this is beyond my primary knowledge. Second, the people I trusted to inform me betrayed me.
I know of no other option than extreme skepticism until such time as trust can be rebuilt. But it does take time.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
4mo ago
To me the most parsimonious explanation is that there are details that are relatively probable but highly embarrassing to the federal government. For example, if Oswald did indeed start shooting, but that it was an accidental discharge from a Secret Service agent (possibly still alive) which blew Kennedy's head off and killed him.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
4mo ago
If you are a non-minority non-veteran, those jobs are all but closed to you.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
4mo ago
Just finished Trinity's Child, the book which the HBO made-for-tv movie Dawn's Early Light is based on. It was written probably at the peak of 80's SIOP nuclear paranoia and presents a look at the difficulties that stopping even a limited engagement would be due to the number of dead-man's switches in place. The book is a little dour, and the writing has the flavor of a journalist trying their hand at creative writing, which is what it was, and it didn't pull too many punches. It's certainly no Tom Clancy novel in that respect, though it is similar in the way that it proceeds mechanistically on a fixed timeline across several plot threads. The movie was a remarkably faithful adaptation of the book, but obviously without the internal existential crises the characters go through in the book. I couldn't acquire it either physically or electronically new and had to buy a used copy that appears to be an original hardcover printing that circulated in the Richmond public library.
It was an interesting read, and it prompted me to think a while about why global thermonuclear war seems to trigger so little existential dread now as compared to then, despite the weapons still existing in roughly the same form. I suppose it's partly because the number has definitely been reduced but also because the perception at least is that with the breakup of the Soviet Union, the level of alert is noticeably lower. The bombers are not on 24-hour alert and the Post-Attack Command and Control System is not on continuous airborne alert status. However, the pieces are all still maintained and operational, and something like SIOP still exists. I think it's an underrated existential threat these days, compared to climate change and meteor strikes.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
4mo ago
I thought there was some evidence that nicotine suppressed it?
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
4mo ago
Right? It wasn't that long ago that asking others to call you by a nickname was cringe. It wasn't that long ago that if your name kind of sucked, people would just choose a different one for you.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
5mo ago
And I daresay that robotics is lagging enough that I'm skeptical that we'll see AI capable of physically navigating the real world independently, without using a human intermediary before we get AGI. They haven't yet hooked up an LLM to sensors that give it a constant stream of data about the real world that I know of, so maybe it can adapt faster than I expect. I wouldn't put anything out beyond 5 years.
This came out just this week: https://microsoft.github.io/Magma/
Magma is the first foundation model that is capable of interpreting and grounding multimodal inputs within its environment. Given a described goal, Magma is able to formulate plans and execute actions to achieve it. By effectively transferring knowledge from freely available visual and language data, Magma bridges verbal, spatial and temporal intelligence to navigate complex tasks and settings.
Things are moving very quickly now.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
5mo ago
Doing this with an executive order is a naked grab for power from both the courts and congress, with no recourse for either.
Not so, executive orders are themselves reviewable by the Supreme Court.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
5mo ago
Perhaps but at least the line of political accountability will be clear. There will be no question of where the buck stops.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
5mo ago
Doing it before-the-fact rather than after-the-fact enables what is essentially a DDOS attack on the decision-makers. Doing it in this order makes a flood-the-zone-with-appeals strategy work in favor of DOGE instead of against it.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
5mo ago
The genius entrepreneur's elite crack team can't come up with a clearly-worded directive that accounts for "don't dump medical volunteers in the street with experimental equipment inside their bodies" without giving gender activists an out? Really?
No, it's literally impossible. Remember, you're dealing with people with sufficient motivated reasoning to pretend to be confused about words like "man" and "woman". People with years of critical theory training that teaches that meaning is subjective, and concepts constructed.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
5mo ago
The operational strategy is that of Blitzkrieg: by forgoing careful, methodical advances in favor of moving as quickly as possible, you incur substantial tactical penalties, but this is more than made up for by disrupting the abilities of your opponents to respond effectively. If your advice were followed, it would give the defenders of USAID ample time to challenge every single cut to the maximum ability possible, likely with multiple consecutive injunctions, as well as reorganize and potentially reroute funding to prevent the next most likely targets. Then, when those programs are cut, even if they have not already been rerouted elsewhere already, they will be well-prepared to immediately mount a defense-in-depth. The effort would be halted in a quagmire of legal proceedings and public propaganda for so long with so many challenges that the public would despair of any change and the political support would evaporate. That's why the only effective strategy can possibly be to cut as much as possible as quickly as possible, then give back only where it is tactically prudent to do so.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
5mo ago
I’m confused. You said if the President goes against the Constitution, then he should be removed. He has clearly violated the Constitution. Therefore he should be removed.
There is general agreement on this, but the question is who decides when this happens. According to the Constitution, the answer has been "Congress." As such, attempts to force this result by the judiciary are in this tradition inappropriate.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
5mo ago
The point of separation of powers is that Congress actually isn't involved in the administrative operations.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
5mo ago
#2 jogged my memory of some insane ads for the Marines I remember from when I was a kid. They leaned hard into the challenge but with a fantasy element as well. To a teenage boy, it made being a Marine the coolest-looking occupation imaginable.
Chess is one I remember vividly, and especially the one with the lava monster in the battle arena, which today I learned is called Contest of Honor. Even as a kid I knew it was ridiculous but it still stirred something visceral in my naive little heart.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
5mo ago
It could be a couple of things, but the most likely in my estimation is either:
- It is attempting to pull provisioning files that your ISP is, for some reason, failing to provide, resulting in lengthy sequential timeouts, or
- Your ISP is for some reason imposing the delay in authentication deliberately, causing the modem to have to repeatedly retry authentication until your ISP finally permits it.
It seems very likely to me that the issue is on the ISP side.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
5mo ago
Justice is not a waste.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
5mo ago
This seems plausible to me. Publicizing the molten head of Robert Lee seems like so obviously a bad idea, but was perceived as a celebratory image by those doing the publishing.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
5mo ago
This no longer seems to be the case.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
5mo ago
The hell of it is I wouldn't even be that opposed to a legitimate US aid organization that is run competently and efficiently. I would support at least the amount of funding that USAID gets of I were persuaded that it was doing tangible good of an equivalent value. What sickens me is money taken under such noble pretenses and used to fund wickedness, graft, corruption, and even ops against the republic itself. This government has rightfully lost the trust of a large part of the population, and should reap the wages of sin.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
5mo ago
It does create credibility. He's willing to eat the criticism and the bad press and enact the consequences, so it is known that he is not bluffing. In game terms, it's like showing up to a game of chicken with a 5-point restraint and a bashed-up car.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
5mo ago
Big Fat Quiz of the Year from last month was the last thing I really belly laughed at.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
5mo ago
Doesn't the federal government contract out almost all of that actual wrench-turning work? E.g., NASA doesn't build rockets (Boeing/ULA/SpaceX), satellites (Lockmart, Northrup) or probes (JPL, Northrup). But they do a shit-ton of paperwork.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
5mo ago
I dislike how long it takes to heat up just to fry a couple of eggs though.
"Safe,
lethallegal, and rare." I've been fooled by this before.That is to say, I believe you and believe your earnestness, but I just cannot conceive of how you would stop cultural slide on this without a solid Chesterton fence.
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